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Development of a comprehensive prognostic index for patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

ABSTRACT: In addition to clinical staging, a number of biomarkers predicting overall survival (OS) have been identified in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). The multiplicity of markers, limited information on their independent prognostic value, and a lack of understanding of how to interpret discordant markers are major barriers to use in routine clinical practice. We therefore performed an analysis of 23 prognostic markers based on prospectively collected data from 1948 CLL patients participating in phase 3 trials of the German CLL Study Group to develop a comprehensive prognostic index. A multivariable Cox regression model identified 8 independent predictors of OS: sex, age, ECOG status, del(17p), del(11q), IGHV mutation status, serum ?2-microglobulin, and serum thymidine kinase. Using a weighted grading system, a prognostic index was derived that separated 4 risk categories with 5-year OS ranging from 18.7% to 95.2% and having a C-statistic of 0.75. The index stratified OS within all analyzed subgroups, including all Rai/Binet stages. The validity of the index was externally confirmed in a series of 676 newly diagnosed CLL patients from Mayo Clinic. Using this multistep process including external validation, we developed a comprehensive prognostic index with high discriminatory power and prognostic significance on the individual patient level. The studies were registered as follows: CLL1 trial (NCT00262782, http://clinicaltrials.gov), CLL4 trial (ISRCTN 75653261, http://www.controlled-trials.com), and CLL8 trial (NCT00281918, http://clinicaltrials.gov).

SUBMITTER: Pflug N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4260976 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development of a comprehensive prognostic index for patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

Pflug Natali N Bahlo Jasmin J Shanafelt Tait D TD Eichhorst Barbara F BF Bergmann Manuela A MA Elter Thomas T Bauer Kathrin K Malchau Gebhart G Rabe Kari G KG Stilgenbauer Stephan S Döhner Hartmut H Jäger Ulrich U Eckart Michael J MJ Hopfinger Georg G Busch Raymonde R Fink Anna-Maria AM Wendtner Clemens-Martin CM Fischer Kirsten K Kay Neil E NE Hallek Michael M

Blood 20140505 1

In addition to clinical staging, a number of biomarkers predicting overall survival (OS) have been identified in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). The multiplicity of markers, limited information on their independent prognostic value, and a lack of understanding of how to interpret discordant markers are major barriers to use in routine clinical practice. We therefore performed an analysis of 23 prognostic markers based on prospectively collected data from 1948 CLL patients participating in ph ...[more]

PMID: 24797299

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Project description:BackgroundThe established clinical staging systems (Rai/Binet) of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) cannot accurately predict the appropriate treatment of patients in the earlier stages. In the past two decades, several prognostic factors have been identified to predict the outcome of patients with CLL, but only a few studies investigated more markers together. To predict the time to first treatment (TTFT) in patients of early stages, we evaluated the prognostic role of conventional markers as well as cytogenetic abnormalities and combined them together in a new prognostic scoring system, the CLL prognostic index (CLL-PI).MethodsTaking advantage of a population of 406 untreated Chinese patients with CLL at early and advanced stage of disease, we identified the strongest prognostic markers of TTFT and, subsequently, in a cohort of 173 patients who had complete data for all 3 variables, we integrated the data of traditional staging system, cytogenetic aberrations, and mutational status of immunoglobulin heavy chain variable region (IGHV) in CLL-PI. The median follow-up time was 45 months and the end point was TTFT.ResultsThe median TTFT was 38 months and the 5-year overall survival was 80%. According to univariate analysis, patients of advanced Rai stages (P < 0.001) or with 11q- (P = 0.002), 17p- (P < 0.001), unmutated IGHV (P < 0.001), negative 13q- (P = 0.007) and elevated lactate dehydrogenase levels (P = 0.001) tended to have a significantly shorter TTFT. And subsequently, based on multivariate Cox regression analysis, three independent factors for TTFT were identified: advanced clinical stage (P = 0.002), 17p- (P = 0.050) and unmutated IGHV (P = 0.049). Applying weighted grading of these independent factors, a CLL-PI was constructed based on regression parameters, which could categorize four different risk groups (low risk [score 0], intermediate low [score 1], intermediate high [score 2] and high risk [score 3-6]) with significantly different TTFT (median TTFT of not reached (NR), 65.0 months, 36.0 months and 19.0 months, respectively, P < 0.001).ConclusionsThis study developed a weighted, integrated CLL-PI prognostic system of CLL patients which combines the critical genetic prognostic markers with traditional clinical stage. This novel modified PI system could be used to discriminate among groups and may help predict the TTFT and prognosis of patients with CLL.

Project description:Previous studies have shown increased familial risk for chronic lymphocytic leukemia. In the most comprehensive study to date, we evaluated risk of chronic lymphocytic leukemia and lymphoproliferative disorders among first-degree relatives of chronic lymphocytic leukemia cases compared to first-degree relatives of controls.Population-based registry data from Sweden were used to evaluate outcomes in 26,947 first-degree relatives of 9,717 chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients (diagnosed 1958-2004) compared with 107,223 first-degree relatives of 38,159 matched controls. Using a marginal survival model, we calculated relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals as measures of familial aggregation.Compared to relatives of controls, relatives of chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients had an increased risk for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (RR=8.5, 6.1-11.7) and other non-Hodgkin's lymphomas (NHLs) (RR=1.9, 1.5-2.3). Evaluating NHL subtypes, we found a striking excess of indolent B-cell NHL, specifically lymphoplasmacytic lymphoma/Waldenström macroglobulinemia and hairy cell leukemia. No excesses of aggressive B-cell or T-cell lymphomas were found. There was no statistical excess of Hodgkin's lymphoma, multiple myeloma, or the precursor condition, monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance, among chronic lymphocytic leukemia relatives.These familial aggregations are striking and provide novel clues to research designed to uncover early pathogenetic mechanisms in chronic lymphocytic leukemia including studies to identify germ line susceptibility genes. However, clinicians should counsel their chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients emphasizing that because the baseline population risks are low, the absolute risk for a first-degree relative to develop chronic lymphocytic leukemia or another indolent lymphoma is low. At this time, an increased medical surveillance of first-degree relatives of chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients has no role outside research studies.

Dataset Information

Development of a comprehensive prognostic index for patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

Publications

Development of a comprehensive prognostic index for patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

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