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Do increasing rates of loss to follow-up in antiretroviral treatment programs imply deteriorating patient retention?

ABSTRACT: In several studies of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs for persons with human immunodeficiency virus infection, investigators have reported that there has been a higher rate of loss to follow-up (LTFU) among patients initiating ART in recent years than among patients who initiated ART during earlier time periods. This finding is frequently interpreted as reflecting deterioration of patient retention in the face of increasing patient loads. However, in this paper we demonstrate by simulation that transient gaps in follow-up could lead to bias when standard survival analysis techniques are applied. We created a simulated cohort of patients with different dates of ART initiation. Rates of ART interruption, ART resumption, and mortality were assumed to remain constant over time, but when we applied a standard definition of LTFU, the simulated probability of being classified LTFU at a particular ART duration was substantially higher in recently enrolled cohorts. This suggests that much of the apparent trend towards increased LTFU may be attributed to bias caused by transient interruptions in care. Alternative statistical techniques need to be used when analyzing predictors of LTFU--for example, using "prospective" definitions of LTFU in place of "retrospective" definitions. Similar considerations may apply when analyzing predictors of LTFU from treatment programs for other chronic diseases.

SUBMITTER: Johnson LF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4262442 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Do increasing rates of loss to follow-up in antiretroviral treatment programs imply deteriorating patient retention?

Johnson Leigh F LF Estill Janne J Keiser Olivia O Cornell Morna M Moolla Haroon H Schomaker Michael M Grimsrud Anna A Davies Mary-Ann MA Boulle Andrew A

American journal of epidemiology 20141115 12

In several studies of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs for persons with human immunodeficiency virus infection, investigators have reported that there has been a higher rate of loss to follow-up (LTFU) among patients initiating ART in recent years than among patients who initiated ART during earlier time periods. This finding is frequently interpreted as reflecting deterioration of patient retention in the face of increasing patient loads. However, in this paper we demonstrate by simulati ...[more]

PMID: 25399412

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Project description:Despite progress on population-level HIV viral suppression, unknown outcomes amongst people who have initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low- and middle-income countries, commonly referred to as loss to follow-up (LTFU), remains a barrier. The mean global estimate of LTFU is 20%, exceeding the World Health Organization target of <15%. Pervasive predictors associated with LTFU include younger age, low body mass index, low CD4 count, advanced HIV clinical stage and certain ART regimens. In Namibia, ART use by eligible individuals exceeds 85%, surpassing the global average. Nonetheless, LTFU remains a barrier to achieving viral suppression and requires research to elucidate context-specific factors. An observational cohort study was conducted in Namibia in 2012 by administering surveys to individuals who presented for HIV care and initiated ART for the first time. Additional data were collected from routine medical data monitoring systems. Participants classified as LTFU at 12 months were traced to confirm their status. Predictors of LTFU were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression. Of those who presented consecutively to initiate ART, 524 were identified as eligible to enroll in the study, 497 enrolled, and 474 completed the baseline questionnaire. The cohort had mean age 36 years, 39% were male, mean CD4 cell count 222 cells/mm3, 17% were WHO HIV clinical stage III-IV, and 14% started efavirenz-based regimens. Tracing participants classified as LTFU yielded a re-categorization from 27.8% (n = 132) to 14.3% (n = 68) LTFU. In the final multivariable model, factors associated with confirmed LTFU status were: younger age (OR 0.97, 95% CI 1.00-1.06, p = 0.02); male sex (OR 2.34, CI 1.34-4.06, p = 0.003); difficulty leaving work or home to attend clinic (OR 2.55, CI 1.40-4.65, p = 0.002); and baseline efavirenz-based regimen (OR 2.35, CI 1.22-4.51, p = 0.01). Interventions to reduce LTFU should therefore target young men, particularly those who report difficulty leaving work or home to attend clinic and are on an efavirenz-based regimen.

Project description:BackgroundQuestionnaires are valuable data collection instruments in public health research, and can serve to pre-screen respondents for suitability in future studies. Survey non-response leads to reduced effective sample sizes and can decrease representativeness of the study population, so high response rates are needed to minimize the risk of bias. Here we present results on the success of different postal questionnaire strategies at effecting response, and the effectiveness of these strategies at recruiting participants for a field study on the effects of aircraft noise on sleep.MethodsIn total, we mailed 17 rounds of 240 questionnaires (total n = 4080) to randomly selected households around Atlanta International Airport. Different mailing rounds were varied in the length of the questionnaire (11, 26 or 55 questions), survey incentive (gift card or $2 cash), number of follow-up waves (0, 2 or 3), incentive for participating in a 5-night in-home sleep study ($100, $150 or $200), and address personalization.ResultsWe received completed questionnaires from 407 respondents (response rate 11.4%). Personalizing the address, enclosing a $2 cash incentive with the initial questionnaire mailing and repeated follow-up mailings were effective at increasing response rate. Despite the increased expense of these approaches in terms of each household mailed, the higher response rates meant that they were more cost-effective overall for obtaining an equivalent number of responses. Interest in participating in the field study decreased with age, but was unaffected by the mailing strategies or cash incentives for field study participation. The likelihood that a respondent would participate in the field study was unaffected by survey incentive, survey length, number of follow-up waves, field study incentive, age or sex.ConclusionsPre-issued cash incentives and sending follow-up waves could maximize the representativeness and numbers of people from which to recruit, and may be an effective strategy for improving recruitment into field studies.

Project description:BackgroundData from HIV treatment programs in resource-limited settings show extensive rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU) ranging from 5% to 40% within 6 mo of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Our objective was to project the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of interventions to prevent LTFU from HIV care in West Africa.Methods and findingsWe used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) International model to project the clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of LTFU-prevention programs from a payer perspective. These programs include components such as eliminating ART co-payments, eliminating charges to patients for opportunistic infection-related drugs, improving personnel training, and providing meals and reimbursing for transportation for participants. The efficacies and costs of these interventions were extensively varied in sensitivity analyses. We used World Health Organization criteria of <3x gross domestic product per capita (3x GDP per capita = US$2,823 for Côte d'Ivoire) as a plausible threshold for "cost-effectiveness." The main results are based on a reported 18% 1-y LTFU rate. With full retention in care, projected per-person discounted life expectancy starting from age 37 y was 144.7 mo (12.1 y). Survival losses from LTFU within 1 y of ART initiation ranged from 73.9 to 80.7 mo. The intervention costing US$22/person/year (e.g., eliminating ART co-payment) would be cost-effective with an efficacy of at least 12%. An intervention costing US$77/person/year (inclusive of all the components described above) would be cost-effective with an efficacy of at least 41%.ConclusionsInterventions that prevent LTFU in resource-limited settings would substantially improve survival and would be cost-effective by international criteria with efficacy of at least 12%-41%, depending on the cost of intervention, based on a reported 18% cumulative incidence of LTFU at 1 y after ART initiation. The commitment to start ART and treat HIV in these settings should include interventions to prevent LTFU.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Although antiretroviral therapy (ART) is known to be associated with time-dependent reductions in tuberculosis (TB) incidence, the long-term impact of ART on incidence remains imprecisely defined due to limited duration of follow-up and incomplete CD4 cell count recovery in existing studies. We determined TB incidence in a South African ART cohort with up to 8 years of follow-up and stratified rates according to CD4 cell count recovery. We compared these rates with those of HIV-uninfected individuals living in the same community. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Prospectively collected clinical data on patients receiving ART in a community-based cohort in Cape Town were analysed. 1544 patients with a median follow-up of 5.0 years (IQR 2.4-5.8) were included in the analysis. 484 episodes of incident TB (73.6% culture-confirmed) were diagnosed in 424 patients during 6506 person-years (PYs) of follow-up. The TB incidence rate during the first year of ART was 12.4 (95% CI 10.8-14.4) cases/100PYs and decreased to 4.92 (95% CI 3.64-8.62) cases/100PYs between 5 and 8 years of ART. During person-time accrued within CD4 cell strata 0-100, 101-200, 201-300, 301-400, 401-500, 501-700 and ?700 cells/µL, TB incidence rates (95% CI) were 25.5 (21.6-30.3), 11.2 (9.4-13.5), 7.9 (6.4-9.7), 5.0 (3.9-6.6), 5.1 (3.8-6.8), 4.1 (3.1-5.4) and 2.7 (1.7-4.5) cases/100PYs, respectively. Overall, 75% (95% CI 70.9-78.8) of TB episodes were recurrent cases. Updated CD4 cell count and viral load measurements were independently associated with long-term TB risk. TB rates during person-time accrued in the highest CD4 cell count stratum (>700 cells/µL) were 4.4-fold higher that the rate in HIV uninfected individuals living in the same community (2.7 versus 0.62 cases/100PYs; 95%CI 0.58-0.65). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:TB rates during long-term ART remained substantially greater than rates in the local HIV uninfected populations regardless of duration of ART or attainment of CD4 cell counts exceeding 700 cells/µL.

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Do increasing rates of loss to follow-up in antiretroviral treatment programs imply deteriorating patient retention?

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Do increasing rates of loss to follow-up in antiretroviral treatment programs imply deteriorating patient retention?

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