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Performance of the SAPS 3 admission score as a predictor of ICU mortality in a Philippine private tertiary medical center intensive care unit.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:This study aimed to assess the performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) as a predictor of ICU mortality in critically ill patients of different case mixes admitted to an intensive care unit. METHODS:This retrospective cohort study was performed from January 2011 to August 2013 in the intensive care unit of a private tertiary referral center in the Philippines. Predicted ICU mortality was calculated using the SAPS 3 global model. Observed versus predicted mortality rates were compared, and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was calculated. The discrimination and calibration characteristics of the SAPS 3 system to predict ICU mortality were assessed. RESULTS:A total of 2,426 patients were included. The observed ICU mortality was 277 (11.42%). The SAPS 3 global model had fair to good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 (CI 0.78-0.81). Good calibration was seen with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit at ??=?11.51 (p?=?0.175). Standardized mortality ratio was 0.36 (0.26-0.81). CONCLUSION:The global SAPS 3 prediction model showed fair to good discrimination and good calibration in predicting mortality in our intensive care unit. Different levels of discrimination and calibration across the different subgroups analyzed suggest that overall ICU performance seemed to be affected by case mix variations.

SUBMITTER: Hernandez AM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4267583 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Performance of the SAPS 3 admission score as a predictor of ICU mortality in a Philippine private tertiary medical center intensive care unit.

Hernandez Aaron Mark R AM Palo Jose Emmanuel M JE

Journal of intensive care 20140424 1

<h4>Background</h4>This study aimed to assess the performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) as a predictor of ICU mortality in critically ill patients of different case mixes admitted to an intensive care unit.<h4>Methods</h4>This retrospective cohort study was performed from January 2011 to August 2013 in the intensive care unit of a private tertiary referral center in the Philippines. Predicted ICU mortality was calculated using the SAPS 3 global model. Observed versus pr ...[more]

PMID: 25520841

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Project description:BackgroundNo African countries were included in the development of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3). This study aimed to assess the performance of the SAPS 3 as a predictor of hospital mortality in patients admitted to a multi-disciplinary tertiary intensive care unit (ICU) in South Africa.MethodsA prospective cohort study was undertaken in a tertiary single-centre closed multidisciplinary ICU with 16 beds over 12 months in 2017. First time admissions 12 years and over were included. Exclusions were patients who died within six hours of admission, incomplete data sets and unknown outcome after ICU discharge. Demographic data, clinical admission data and co-morbidities were recorded. The SAPS 3 score was calculated within the first hour of ICU admission. The highest Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, vasopressor use, mechanical ventilation requirements and details of acute kidney injury, if present, were recorded. Discrimination of the model was evaluated using an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration by the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) Goodness of Fit Test (Ĉ and Ĥ statistic). The observed versus the SAPS 3 model predicted mortality ratios were compared and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was calculated.ResultsA total of 829 admissions with a mean SAPS 3 (SD) of 48.1 (16) were included. Of patients with a known human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status, 32,4% were positive. The ICU and hospital mortality rates were 13.3% and 21.4% respectively. The SAPS 3 model had a AUROC of 0.796 and HL Ĉ and Ĥ statistics were 12.1 and 11.8 (p-values 0.15 and 0.16). The SMR for the model was 1.002 (95%CI: 0.91-1.10). The mortality of 41% for the subgroup with sepsis/septic shock was higher than predicted with a SMR of 1.24 (95% CI 1.11-1.37).ConclusionsThe SAPS 3 model showed good calibration and fair discrimination when applied to the cohort. The SAPS 3 model can be used to describe the case mix in this African ICU with a high incidence of HIV. Ongoing efforts should be made to improve outcomes of septic patients.

Project description:BackgroundAcute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication in patients during intensive care unit (ICU) admission. AKI is defined as an increase in serum creatinine (SCr) and/or a reduction in urine output. SCr is a marker of renal function with several limitations, which led to the search for biomarkers for earlier AKI detection. Our aim was to study the predictive value of plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) at admission as a biomarker for AKI progression during the first 48 h of ICU admission in an unselected, heterogeneous ICU patient population.MethodsWe conducted a prospective observational study in an academic tertiary referral ICU population. We recorded AKI progression in all ICU patients during the first 48 h of ICU admission in a 6-week period. Plasma NGAL was measured at admission but levels were not reported to the attending clinicians. As possible predictors of AKI progression, pre-existing AKI risk factors were recorded. We examined the association of clinical parameters and plasma NGAL levels at ICU admission with the incidence and progression of AKI within the first 48 h of the ICU stay.ResultsA total of 361 patients were included. Patients without AKI progression during the first 48 h of ICU admission had median NGAL levels at admission of 115 ng/mL [interquartile range (IQR) 81-201]. Patients with AKI progression during the first 48 h of ICU admission had median NGAL levels at admission of 156 ng/mL (IQR 97-267). To predict AKI progression, a multivariant model with age, sex, diabetes mellitus, body mass index, admission type, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation score and SCr at admission had an area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve of 0.765. Adding NGAL to this model showed a small increase in the area under the ROC curve to 0.783 (95% confidence interval 0.714-0.853).ConclusionsNGAL levels at admission were higher in patients with progression of AKI during the first 48 h of ICU admission, but adding NGAL levels at admission to a model predicting this AKI progression showed no significant additive value.

Project description:BackgroundThe Herpesviridae family contains several human-related viruses, which are able to establish colonizing and latency in the human body, posing a significant threat to the prognosis of patients. Pulmonary infections represent one of the predominant infectious diseases globally, characterized by diverse and multifaceted clinical manifestations that have consistently attracted clinician's concern. However, the relationship of herpesviruses on the prognosis of pulmonary infections and the respiratory microbiota remains poorly understood.MethodsHere, we retrospectively analyzed respiratory samples from 100 patients with pulmonary infection detected by metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS).ResultsEmploying mNGS, five herpesvirus species were detected: Human alphaherpesvirus 1 (HSV-1), Human gammaherpesvirus 4 (EBV), Human betaherpesvirus 5 (CMV), Human betaherpesvirus 7 (HHV-7), and Human betaherpesvirus 6B (HHV-6B). Regression analysis showed that the age and positivity of herpesviruses in patients were independently correlated with ICU admission rates. In addition, positivity of herpesvirus was related with increased ICU days and total hospital stay. The herpesvirus-positive group demonstrated markedly higher incidences of co-infections and fungi-positive, predominantly involving Pneumocystis jirovecii and Aspergillus fumigatus. Analysis of respiratory microbiota revealed a substantially altered community composition within the herpesvirus-positive group, and herpesviruses were significantly positively correlated with the diverse respiratory opportunistic pathogens.ConclusionOverall results substantiate that the active herpesviruses in patients with pulmonary infections were significantly associated with high ICU admission rate. Moreover, the herpesviruses promotes the dysbiosis of the respiratory microbiota and an increased proportion of co-infections. These insights could contribute to unraveling the underlying mechanisms connecting active herpesviruses to the progression of severe illnesses.

Dataset Information

Performance of the SAPS 3 admission score as a predictor of ICU mortality in a Philippine private tertiary medical center intensive care unit.

Publications

Performance of the SAPS 3 admission score as a predictor of ICU mortality in a Philippine private tertiary medical center intensive care unit.

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