Dataset Information

Responding to vaccine safety signals during pandemic influenza: a modeling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Managing emerging vaccine safety signals during an influenza pandemic is challenging. Federal regulators must balance vaccine risks against benefits while maintaining public confidence in the public health system.

Methods

We developed a multi-criteria decision analysis model to explore regulatory decision-making in the context of emerging vaccine safety signals during a pandemic. We simulated vaccine safety surveillance system capabilities and used an age-structured compartmental model to develop potential pandemic scenarios. We used an expert-derived multi-attribute utility function to evaluate potential regulatory responses by combining four outcome measures into a single measure of interest: 1) expected vaccination benefit from averted influenza; 2) expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated febrile seizures; 3) expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated Guillain-Barre Syndrome; and 4) expected change in vaccine-seeking behavior in future influenza seasons.

Results

Over multiple scenarios, risk communication, with or without suspension of vaccination of high-risk persons, were the consistently preferred regulatory responses over no action or general suspension when safety signals were detected during a pandemic influenza. On average, the expert panel valued near-term vaccine-related outcomes relative to long-term projected outcomes by 3:1. However, when decision-makers had minimal ability to influence near-term outcomes, the response was selected primarily by projected impacts on future vaccine-seeking behavior.

Conclusions

The selected regulatory response depends on how quickly a vaccine safety signal is identified relative to the peak of the pandemic and the initiation of vaccination. Our analysis suggested two areas for future investment: efforts to improve the size and timeliness of the surveillance system and behavioral research to understand changes in vaccine-seeking behavior.

SUBMITTER: Maro JC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4275236 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Responding to vaccine safety signals during pandemic influenza: a modeling study.

Maro Judith C JC Fryback Dennis G DG Lieu Tracy A TA Lee Grace M GM Martin David B DB

PloS one 20141223 12

<h4>Background</h4>Managing emerging vaccine safety signals during an influenza pandemic is challenging. Federal regulators must balance vaccine risks against benefits while maintaining public confidence in the public health system.<h4>Methods</h4>We developed a multi-criteria decision analysis model to explore regulatory decision-making in the context of emerging vaccine safety signals during a pandemic. We simulated vaccine safety surveillance system capabilities and used an age-structured com ...[more]

PMID: 25536228

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Project description:ObjectivesTo assess the safety of an AS03-adjuvanted split virion H1N1 (2009) vaccine (Pandemrix) in persons vaccinated during the national pandemic influenza vaccination campaign in the UK.DesignProspective, cohort, observational, postauthorisation safety study.Setting87 general practices forming part of the Medical Research Council General Practice Research Framework and widely distributed throughout England.ParticipantsA cohort of 9143 individuals aged 7 months to 97 years who received at least one dose of the AS03-adjuvanted H1N1 pandemic vaccine during the national pandemic influenza vaccination campaign in the UK was enrolled. 94% completed the 6-month follow-up. Exclusion criteria were previous vaccination with other H1N1 pandemic vaccine and any child in care.Primary and secondary outcome measuresMedically attended adverse events (MAEs) occurring within 31 days after any dose, serious adverse events (SAEs) and adverse events of special interest (AESIs) following vaccination were collected for all participants. Solicited adverse events (AEs) were assessed in a subset of participants.ResultsMAEs were reported in 1219 participants and SAEs in 113 participants during the 31-day postvaccination period. The most frequently reported MAEs and SAEs were consistent with events expected to be reported during the winter season in this population: lower respiratory tract infections, asthma and pneumonia. The most commonly reported solicited AEs were irritability in young children aged <5 years (61.8%), muscle aches in children aged 5-17 years (61.9%) and adults (46.9%). 18 AESIs, experienced by 14 patients, met the criteria to be considered for the observed-to-expected analyses. AESIs above the expected number were neuritis (1 case within 31 days) and convulsions (8 cases within 181 days). There were 41 deaths during the 181-day period after vaccination, fewer than expected.ConclusionsResults indicate that the AS03-adjuvanted H1N1 pandemic vaccine showed a clinically acceptable reactogenicity and safety profile in all age and risk groups studied.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00996853.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:The feasibility and accuracy of text messaging to monitor events after influenza vaccination throughout pregnancy and the neonatal period has not been studied, but may be important for seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccines and future maternal vaccines. METHODS:This prospective observational study was conducted during 2013-2014 and analyzed in 2015-2016. Enrolled pregnant women receiving inactivated influenza vaccination at a gestational age <20 weeks were sent text messages intermittently through participant-reported pregnancy end to request fever, health events, and neonatal outcomes. Text message response rates, Day 0-2 fever (?100.4°F), health events, and birth/neonatal outcomes were assessed. RESULTS:Most (80.2%, n=166) eligible women enrolled. Median gestational age was 8.9 (SD=3.9) weeks at vaccination. Response rates remained high (80.0%-95.2%). Only one Day 0-2 fever was reported. Women reported via text both pregnancy- and non-pregnancy-specific health events, not all associated with medical visits. Most pregnancy-specific events in the electronic medical record (EMR) were reported via text message. Of all enrollees, 84.9% completed the study (131 reported live birth, ten reported pregnancy loss). Two losses reported via text were not medically attended; there was one additional EMR-identified loss. Gestational age and weight at birth were similar between text message-reported and EMR-abstracted data and 95% CIs were overlapping for proportions of prematurity, low birth weight, small for gestational age, and major birth defects, as identified by text message-reported versus EMR-abstracted plus text message-reported versus EMR-abstracted data only. CONCLUSIONS:This study demonstrated the feasibility of text messaging for influenza vaccine safety surveillance sustained throughout pregnancy. In these women receiving inactivated influenza vaccination during pregnancy, post-vaccination fever was infrequent and a typical pattern of maternal and neonatal health outcomes was observed.

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Project description:BACKGROUND: In July, 2009, French health authorities, like those in many other countries, decided to embark on a mass vaccination campaign against the pandemic A(H1N1) influenza. Private general practitioners (GPs) were not involved in this campaign. We studied GPs' pandemic vaccine (pvaccine) uptake, quantified the relative contribution of its potential explanatory factors and studied whether their own vaccination choice was correlated with their recommendations to patients about pvaccination. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this cross-sectional telephone survey, professional investigators interviewed an existing panel of randomly selected private GPs (N = 1431; response rate at inclusion in the panel: 36.8%; participation rate in the survey: 100%). The main outcome variable was GPs' own pvaccine uptake. We used an averaging multi-model approach to quantify the relative contribution of factors associated with their vaccination. The pvaccine uptake rate was 61% (95%CI = 58.3-63.3). Four independent factors contributed the most to this rate (partial Nagelkerke's R(2)): history of previous vaccination against seasonal influenza (14.5%), perception of risks and efficacy of the pvaccine (10.8%), opinions regarding the organization of the vaccination campaign (7.1%), and perception of the pandemic's severity (5.2%). Overall, 71.3% (95%CI = 69.0-73.6) of the participants recommended pvaccination to young adults at risk and 40.1% (95%CI = 37.6-42.7) to other young adults. GPs' own pvaccination was strongly predictive of their recommendation to both young adults at risk (OR = 9.6; 95%CI = 7.2-12.6) and those not at risk (OR = 8.5; 95%CI = 6.4-11.4). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results suggest that around 60% of French private GPs followed French authorities' recommendations about vaccination of health care professionals against the A(H1N1) influenza. They pinpoint priority levers for improving preparedness for future influenza pandemics. Besides encouraging GPs' own uptake of regular vaccination against seasonal influenza, providing GPs with clear information about the risks and efficacy of any new pvaccine and involving them in the organization of any future vaccine campaign may improve their pvaccine uptake.

Dataset Information

Responding to vaccine safety signals during pandemic influenza: a modeling study.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Responding to vaccine safety signals during pandemic influenza: a modeling study.

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