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Testing for non-linear causal effects using a binary genotype in a Mendelian randomization study: application to alcohol and cardiovascular traits.

ABSTRACT: Mendelian randomization studies have so far restricted attention to linear associations relating the genetic instrument to the exposure, and the exposure to the outcome. In some cases, however, observational data suggest a non-linear association between exposure and outcome. For example, alcohol consumption is consistently reported as having a U-shaped association with cardiovascular events. In principle, Mendelian randomization could address concerns that the apparent protective effect of light-to-moderate drinking might reflect 'sick-quitters' and confounding.The Alcohol-ADH1B Consortium was established to study the causal effects of alcohol consumption on cardiovascular events and biomarkers, using the single nucleotide polymorphism rs1229984 in ADH1B as a genetic instrument. To assess non-linear causal effects in this study, we propose a novel method based on estimating local average treatment effects for discrete levels of the exposure range, then testing for a linear trend in those effects. Our method requires an assumption that the instrument has the same effect on exposure in all individuals. We conduct simulations examining the robustness of the method to violations of this assumption, and apply the method to the Alcohol-ADH1B Consortium data.Our method gave a conservative test for non-linearity under realistic violations of the key assumption. We found evidence for a non-linear causal effect of alcohol intake on several cardiovascular traits.We believe our method is useful for inferring departure from linearity when only a binary instrument is available. We estimated non-linear causal effects of alcohol intake which could not have been estimated through standard instrumental variable approaches.

SUBMITTER: Silverwood RJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4276061 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Testing for non-linear causal effects using a binary genotype in a Mendelian randomization study: application to alcohol and cardiovascular traits.

Silverwood Richard J RJ Holmes Michael V MV Dale Caroline E CE Lawlor Debbie A DA Whittaker John C JC Smith George Davey GD Leon David A DA Palmer Tom T Keating Brendan J BJ Zuccolo Luisa L Casas Juan P JP Dudbridge Frank F

International journal of epidemiology 20140905 6

<h4>Background</h4>Mendelian randomization studies have so far restricted attention to linear associations relating the genetic instrument to the exposure, and the exposure to the outcome. In some cases, however, observational data suggest a non-linear association between exposure and outcome. For example, alcohol consumption is consistently reported as having a U-shaped association with cardiovascular events. In principle, Mendelian randomization could address concerns that the apparent protect ...[more]

PMID: 25192829

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Project description:BACKGROUND: Vitamin D deficiency is associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk in observational studies. Whether these associations are causal is not clear. Loss-of-function mutations in the filaggrin gene result in up to 10% higher serum vitamin D concentrations, supposedly due to a decreased UV-protection of the keratinocytes. We used a Mendelian randomization approach to estimate the causal effect of vitamin D status on serum lipids, blood pressure, body mass index, waist circumference, and the metabolic syndrome. METHODS: Three population based studies were included, Monica10 (2,656 individuals aged 40-71 years), Inter99 (6,784 individuals aged 30-60 years), and Health2006 (3,471 individuals aged 18-69 years) conducted in 1993-94, 1999-2001, and 2006-2008, respectively. Participants were genotyped for the two most common filaggrin gene mutations in European descendants R501X and 2282del4, in all three studies and further for the R2447X mutation in the Inter99 and Health2006 studies. Filaggrin genotype was used as instrumental variable for vitamin D status. Baseline measurements of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D were performed in all three studies. RESULTS: Instrumental variable analyses showed a 23.8% (95% confidence interval, CI 3.0, 48.6) higher HDL cholesterol level and a 30.5% (95% CI: 0.8, 51.3) lower serum level of triglycerides per doubling of vitamin D. These associations were, however, not statistically significant when applying the Bonferroni adjusted significance level. The remaining lipids showed non-significant changes in a favorable direction. Doubling of vitamin D gave a non-significantly lower odds ratio = 0.26 (95% CI: 0.06, 1.17) of the metabolic syndrome. There were no statistically significant causal effects of vitamin D status on blood pressure, body mass index, or waist circumference. CONCLUSION: Our results support a causal effect of higher vitamin D status on a more favorable lipid profile, although more studies in other populations are needed to confirm our results.

Project description:ObjectiveThis study aimed to investigate the causal associations between several liver traits (liver iron content, percent liver fat, alanine transaminase levels, and liver volume) and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk using a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach to improve our understanding of the disease and its management.MethodsGenetic variants were used as instrumental variables, extracted from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) datasets of liver traits and CRC. The Two-Sample MR package in R was used to conduct inverse variance weighted (IVW), MR Egger, Maximum likelihood, Weighted median, and Inverse variance weighted (multiplicative random effects) MR approaches to generate overall estimates of the effect. MR analysis was conducted with Benjamini-Hochberg method-corrected P values to account for multiple testing (P < 0.013). MR-PRESSO was used to identify and remove outlier genetic variants in Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. The MR Steiger test was used to assess the validity of the assumption that exposure causes outcomes. Leave-one-out validation, pleiotropy, and heterogeneity testing were also conducted to ensure the reliability of the results. Multivariable MR was utilized for validation of our findings using the IVW method while also adjusting for potential confounding or pleiotropy bias.ResultsThe MR analysis suggested a causal effect between liver volume and a reduced risk of CRC (OR 0.60; 95% CI, 0.44-0.82; P = 0.0010) but did not provide evidence for causal effects of liver iron content, percent liver fat, or liver alanine transaminase levels. The MR-PRESSO method did not identify any outliers, and the MR Steiger test confirmed that the causal direction of the analysis results was correct in the Mendelian randomization analysis. MR results were consistent with heterogeneity and pleiotropy analyses, and leave-one-out analysis demonstrated the overall values obtained were consistent with estimates obtained when all available SNPs were included in the analysis. Multivariable MR was utilized for validation of our findings using the IVW method while also adjusting for potential confounding or pleiotropy bias.ConclusionThe study provides tentative evidence for a causal role of liver volume in CRC, while genetically predicted levels of liver iron content, percent liver fat, and liver alanine transaminase levels were not associated with CRC risk. The findings may inform the development of targeted therapeutic interventions for colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) patients, and the study highlights the importance of MR as a powerful epidemiological tool for investigating causal associations between exposures and outcomes.

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Testing for non-linear causal effects using a binary genotype in a Mendelian randomization study: application to alcohol and cardiovascular traits.

Publications

Testing for non-linear causal effects using a binary genotype in a Mendelian randomization study: application to alcohol and cardiovascular traits.

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