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Confirmation bias leads to overestimation of losses of woody plant foliage to insect herbivores in tropical regions.

ABSTRACT: Confirmation bias, i.e., the tendency of humans to seek out evidence in a manner that confirms their hypotheses, is almost overlooked in ecological studies. For decades, insect herbivory was commonly accepted to be highest in tropical regions. By comparing the data collected blindly (when the observer was not aware of the research hypothesis being tested) with the results of non-blind studies (when the observer knew what results could be expected), we tested the hypothesis that the records made in the tropics could have overestimated community-wide losses of plant foliage to insects due to the confirmation bias. The average loss of leaf area of woody plants to defoliating insects in Brazil, when measured by a blind method (1.11%), was significantly lower than the loss measured in non-blind studies, both original (5.14%) and published (6.37%). We attribute the overestimation of the community-wide losses of plant foliage to insects in non-blind studies to the unconsciously preconceived selection of study species with higher-than-average levels of herbivory. Based on our findings, we urge for caution in obtaining community-wide characteristics from the results of multiple single-species studies. Our data suggest that we may need to revise the paradigm of the highest level of background insect herbivory in the tropical regions. More generally, we argue that more attention should be paid by ecologists to the problem of biases occurring at the pre-publication phases of the scientific research and, consequently, to the development and the wide application of methods that avoid biases occurring due to unconscious psychological processes.

SUBMITTER: Kozlov MV

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4277485 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Confirmation bias leads to overestimation of losses of woody plant foliage to insect herbivores in tropical regions.

Kozlov Mikhail V MV Zverev Vitali V Zvereva Elena L EL

PeerJ 20141223

Confirmation bias, i.e., the tendency of humans to seek out evidence in a manner that confirms their hypotheses, is almost overlooked in ecological studies. For decades, insect herbivory was commonly accepted to be highest in tropical regions. By comparing the data collected blindly (when the observer was not aware of the research hypothesis being tested) with the results of non-blind studies (when the observer knew what results could be expected), we tested the hypothesis that the records made ...[more]

PMID: 25551025

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Project description:Arabidopsis thaliana plants were infested i) with sucking insect herbivores (the generalist aphid Myzus persicae and the specialist aphid Brevicoryne brassicae), ii) with chewing insect herbivores (generalist caterpillars of Spodoptera exigua and specialist caterpillars of Pieris rapae) or iii) were treated by wounding. For each treatment, rosette leaves were harvested at two time points (6h and 24h) after removal of insects. For chewing herbivores and wounding both local, i.e. immediately damaged leaves, and systemic, i.e. undamaged leaves from the same plant, were collected. Control plants were uninfested, but otherwise equally treated and harvested in parallel. We tested the hypothesis that Arabidopsis can recognize and respond differentially to insect species at the transcriptional level using a genome wide microarray. Transcriptional reprogramming was characterized using co-expression analysis in damaged and undamaged leaves at two times in response to mechanical wounding and four insect species. In all, 2778 (10.6%) of annotated genes on the array were differentially expressed in at least one treatment. Responses differed mainly between aphid and caterpillar and sampling times. Responses to aphids and caterpillars shared only 10% of up-regulated and 8% of down-regulated genes. Responses to two caterpillars shared 21% and 12% of up- and down-regulated genes, whereas responses to the two aphids shared only 7% and 4% of up-regulated and down-regulated genes. Overlap in genes expressed between 6h and 24h was 3-15%, and depended on the insect species. Responses in attacked and unattacked leaves differed at 6h but converged by 24h. Genes responding to the insects are also responsive to many stressors and included primary metabolism. Aphids down-regulated amino acid catabolism; caterpillars stimulated production of amino acids involved in glucosinolate synthesis. Co-expression analysis revealed 17 response networks. Transcription factors were a major portion of differentially expressed genes throughout and responsive genes shared most of the known or postulated binding sites.

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Confirmation bias leads to overestimation of losses of woody plant foliage to insect herbivores in tropical regions.

Publications

Confirmation bias leads to overestimation of losses of woody plant foliage to insect herbivores in tropical regions.

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