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A risk factor-based predictive model of outcomes in carotid endarterectomy: the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program 2005-2010.

ABSTRACT: Accurate knowledge of individualized risks and benefits is crucial to the surgical management of patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA). Although large randomized trials have determined specific cutoffs for the degree of stenosis, precise delineation of patient-level risks remains a topic of debate, especially in real world practice. We attempted to create a risk factor-based predictive model of outcomes in CEA.We performed a retrospective cohort study involving patients who underwent CEAs from 2005 to 2010 and were registered in the American College of Surgeons National Quality Improvement Project database.Of the 35 698 patients, 20 015 were asymptomatic (56.1%) and 15 683 were symptomatic (43.9%). These patients demonstrated a 1.64% risk of stroke, 0.69% risk of myocardial infarction, and 0.75% risk of death within 30 days after CEA. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that increasing age, male sex, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, myocardial infarction, angina, congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, previous stroke or transient ischemic attack, and dialysis were independent risk factors associated with an increased risk of the combined outcome of postoperative stroke, myocardial infarction, or death. A validated model for outcome prediction based on individual patient characteristics was developed. There was a steep effect of age on the risk of myocardial infarction and death.This national study confirms that that risks of CEA vary dramatically based on patient-level characteristics. Because of limited discrimination, it cannot be used for individual patient risk assessment. However, it can be used as a baseline for improvement and development of more accurate predictive models based on other databases or prospective studies.

SUBMITTER: Bekelis K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4279219 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A risk factor-based predictive model of outcomes in carotid endarterectomy: the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program 2005-2010.

Bekelis Kimon K Bakhoum Samuel F SF Desai Atman A Mackenzie Todd A TA Goodney Philip P Labropoulos Nicos N

Stroke 20130214 4

<h4>Background and purpose</h4>Accurate knowledge of individualized risks and benefits is crucial to the surgical management of patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA). Although large randomized trials have determined specific cutoffs for the degree of stenosis, precise delineation of patient-level risks remains a topic of debate, especially in real world practice. We attempted to create a risk factor-based predictive model of outcomes in CEA.<h4>Methods</h4>We performed a retrospective ...[more]

PMID: 23412374

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Project description:Background and purposePublished data regarding embolic protection device efficacy is mixed, and its use during carotid artery stent placement remains variable. We, therefore, examined the frequency of embolic protection device use and its association with outcomes after carotid artery stent placement using a national quality improvement data base.Materials and methodsPatients undergoing carotid artery stent placement with or without embolic protection devices were identified in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data base. The primary outcome was the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (defined as death, stroke, or myocardial infarction/arrhythmia) within 30 days. Propensity scoring was used to create 2 matching cohorts of patients using demographic and baseline variables.ResultsBetween 2011 and 2018, among 1200 adult patients undergoing carotid artery stent placement, 23.8% did not have embolic protection devices. There was no trend toward increased embolic protection device use with time. Patients without embolic protection device use received preoperative antiplatelets less frequently (90.6% versus 94.6%, P = .02), underwent more emergent carotid artery stent placement (7.2% versus 3.6%, P = .01), and had a higher incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (OR = 1.81; 95% CI, 1.11-2.94) and stroke (OR = 3.31; 95% CI, 1.71-6.39). After compensating for baseline imbalances using propensity-matched cohorts (n = 261 for both), carotid artery stent placement without an embolic protection device remained associated with increased major adverse cardiovascular events (9.2% versus 4.2%; OR = 2.30; 95% CI, 1.10-4.80) and stroke (6.5% versus 1.5%; OR = 4.48; 95% CI, 1.49-13.49).ConclusionsLack of embolic protection device use during carotid artery stent placement is associated with a 4-fold increase in the likelihood of perioperative stroke. Nevertheless, nearly one-quarter of patients in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program underwent unprotected carotid artery stent placement. Efforts targeting improved embolic protection device use during carotid artery stent placement are warranted.

Dataset Information

A risk factor-based predictive model of outcomes in carotid endarterectomy: the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program 2005-2010.

Publications

A risk factor-based predictive model of outcomes in carotid endarterectomy: the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program 2005-2010.

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