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Using conservation of pattern to estimate spatial parameters from a single snapshot.

ABSTRACT: Rapid reaction in the face of an epidemic is a key element in effective and efficient control; this is especially important when the disease has severe public health or economic consequences. Determining an appropriate level of response requires rapid estimation of the rate of spread of infection from limited disease distribution data. Generally, the techniques used to estimate such spatial parameters require detailed spatial data at multiple time points; such data are often time-consuming and expensive to collect. Here we present an alternative approach that is computationally efficient and only requires spatial data from a single time point, hence saving valuable time at the start of the epidemic. By assuming that fundamental spatial statistics are near equilibrium, parameters can be estimated by minimizing the expected rate of change of these statistics, hence conserving the general spatial pattern. Although applicable to both ecological and epidemiological data, here we focus on disease data from computer simulations and real epidemics to show that this method produces reliable results that could be used in practical situations.

SUBMITTER: Keeling MJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC428489 | biostudies-literature | 2004 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Using conservation of pattern to estimate spatial parameters from a single snapshot.

Keeling Matt J MJ Brooks Stephen P SP Gilligan Christopher A CA

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20040607 24

Rapid reaction in the face of an epidemic is a key element in effective and efficient control; this is especially important when the disease has severe public health or economic consequences. Determining an appropriate level of response requires rapid estimation of the rate of spread of infection from limited disease distribution data. Generally, the techniques used to estimate such spatial parameters require detailed spatial data at multiple time points; such data are often time-consuming and e ...[more]

PMID: 15184669

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Project description:ObjectivesTimely assessments are critical to providing early intervention and better hearing and spoken language outcomes for children with hearing loss. To facilitate faster diagnostic hearing assessments in infants, the authors developed the parallel auditory brainstem response (pABR), which presents randomly timed trains of tone pips at five frequencies to each ear simultaneously. The pABR yields high-quality waveforms that are similar to the standard, single-frequency serial ABR but in a fraction of the recording time. While well-documented for standard ABRs, it is yet unknown how presentation rate and level interact to affect responses collected in parallel. Furthermore, the stimuli are yet to be calibrated to perceptual thresholds. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the optimal range of parameters for the pABR and to establish the normative stimulus level correction values for the ABR stimuli.DesignTwo experiments were completed, each with a group of 20 adults (18-35 years old) with normal-hearing thresholds (≤20 dB HL) from 250 to 8000 Hz. First, pABR electroencephalographic (EEG) responses were recorded for six stimulation rates and two intensities. The changes in component wave V amplitude and latency were analyzed, as well as the time required for all responses to reach a criterion signal-to-noise ratio of 0 dB. Second, behavioral thresholds were measured for pure tones and for the pABR stimuli at each rate to determine the correction factors that relate the stimulus level in dB peSPL to perceptual thresholds in dB nHL.ResultsThe pABR showed some adaptation with increased stimulation rate. A wide range of rates yielded robust responses in under 15 minutes, but 40 Hz was the optimal singular presentation rate. Extending the analysis window to include later components of the response offered further time-saving advantages for the temporally broader responses to low-frequency tone pips. The perceptual thresholds to pABR stimuli changed subtly with rate, giving a relatively similar set of correction factors to convert the level of the pABR stimuli from dB peSPL to dB nHL.ConclusionsThe optimal stimulation rate for the pABR is 40 Hz but using multiple rates may prove useful. Perceptual thresholds that subtly change across rate allow for a testing paradigm that easily transitions between rates, which may be useful for quickly estimating thresholds for different configurations of hearing loss. These optimized parameters facilitate expediency and effectiveness of the pABR to estimate hearing thresholds in a clinical setting.

Project description:Grassland birds are among the most globally threatened bird groups due to substantial degradation of native grassland habitats. However, the current network of grassland conservation areas may not be adequate for halting population declines and biodiversity loss. Here, we evaluate a network of grassland conservation areas within Wisconsin, U.S.A., that includes both large Focal Landscapes and smaller targeted conservation areas (e.g., Grassland Bird Conservation Areas, GBCAs) established within them. To date, this conservation network has lacked baseline information to assess whether the current placement of these conservation areas aligns with population hot spots of grassland-dependent taxa. To do so, we fitted data from thousands of avian point-count surveys collected by citizen scientists as part of Wisconsin's Breeding Bird Atlas II with multinomial N-mixture models to estimate habitat-abundance relationships, develop spatially explicit predictions of abundance, and establish ecological baselines within priority conservation areas for a suite of obligate grassland songbirds. Next, we developed spatial randomization tests to evaluate the placement of this conservation network relative to randomly placed conservation networks. Overall, less than 20% of species statewide populations were found within the current grassland conservation network. Spatial tests demonstrated a high representation of this bird assemblage within the entire conservation network, but with a bias toward birds associated with moderately tallgrasses relative to those associated with shortgrasses or tallgrasses. We also found that GBCAs had higher representation at Focal Landscape rather than statewide scales. Here, we demonstrated how combining citizen science data with hierarchical modeling is a powerful tool for estimating ecological baselines and conducting large-scale evaluations of an existing conservation network for multiple grassland birds. Our flexible spatial randomization approach offers the potential to be applied to other protected area networks and serves as a complementary tool for conservation planning efforts globally.

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Using conservation of pattern to estimate spatial parameters from a single snapshot.

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Using conservation of pattern to estimate spatial parameters from a single snapshot.

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