Dataset Information

Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits.

ABSTRACT: Understanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Britain, for present and future climatic conditions projected for 2050 under the SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. We used a relative index of pollinator availability as a proxy for pollination service. At present, there is a large spatial overlap between orchards and their pollinators, but predictions for 2050 revealed that the most suitable areas for orchards corresponded to low pollinator availability. However, we found that pollinator availability may persist in areas currently used for fruit production, which are predicted to provide suboptimal environmental suitability for orchard species in the future. Our results may be used to identify mitigation options to safeguard orchard production against the risk of pollination failure in Great Britain over the next 50 years; for instance, choosing fruit tree varieties that are adapted to future climatic conditions, or boosting wild pollinators through improving landscape resources. Our approach can be readily applied to other regions and crop systems, and expanded to include different climatic scenarios.

SUBMITTER: Polce C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4285753 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits.

Polce Chiara C Garratt Michael P MP Termansen Mette M Ramirez-Villegas Julian J Challinor Andrew J AJ Lappage Martin G MG Boatman Nigel D ND Crowe Andrew A Endalew Ayenew Melese AM Potts Simon G SG Somerwill Kate E KE Biesmeijer Jacobus C JC

Global change biology 20140502 9

Understanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Britain, for present and future climatic conditions projected for 2050 under the SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. We used a relative index of pollinator ava ...[more]

PMID: 24638986

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Project description:BackgroundFunctional traits are the primary biotic component driving organism influence on ecosystem functions; in consequence, traits are widely used in ecological research. However, most animal trait-based studies use easy-to-measure characteristics of species that are at best only weakly associated with functions. Animal-mediated pollination is a key ecosystem function and is likely to be influenced by pollinator traits, but to date no one has identified functional traits that are simple to measure and have good predictive power.MethodsHere, we show that a simple, easy to measure trait (hairiness) can predict pollinator effectiveness with high accuracy. We used a novel image analysis method to calculate entropy values for insect body surfaces as a measure of hairiness. We evaluated the power of our method for predicting pollinator effectiveness by regressing pollinator hairiness (entropy) against single visit pollen deposition (SVD) and pollen loads on insects. We used linear models and AICC model selection to determine which body regions were the best predictors of SVD and pollen load.ResultsWe found that hairiness can be used as a robust proxy of SVD. The best models for predicting SVD for the flower species Brassica rapa and Actinidia deliciosa were hairiness on the face and thorax as predictors (R2 = 0.98 and 0.91 respectively). The best model for predicting pollen load for B. rapa was hairiness on the face (R2 = 0.81).DiscussionWe suggest that the match between pollinator body region hairiness and plant reproductive structure morphology is a powerful predictor of pollinator effectiveness. We show that pollinator hairiness is strongly linked to pollination-an important ecosystem function, and provide a rigorous and time-efficient method for measuring hairiness. Identifying and accurately measuring key traits that drive ecosystem processes is critical as global change increasingly alters ecological communities, and subsequently, ecosystem functions worldwide.

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Dataset Information

Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits.

Publications

Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits.

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