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Optimizing the data combination rule for seamless phase?II/III clinical trials.

ABSTRACT: We consider seamless phase?II/III clinical trials that compare K treatments with a common control in phase?II then test the most promising treatment against control in phase?III. The final hypothesis test for the selected treatment can use data from both phases, subject to controlling the familywise type?I error rate. We show that the choice of method for conducting the final hypothesis test has a substantial impact on the power to demonstrate that an effective treatment is superior to control. To understand these differences in power, we derive decision rules maximizing power for particular configurations of treatment effects. A rule with such an optimal frequentist property is found as the solution to a multivariate Bayes decision problem. The optimal rules that we derive depend on the assumed configuration of treatment means. However, we are able to identify two decision rules with robust efficiency: a rule using a weighted average of the phase II and phase III data on the selected treatment and control, and a closed testing procedure using an inverse normal combination rule and a Dunnett test for intersection hypotheses. For the first of these rules, we find the optimal division of a given total sample size between phases II and III. We also assess the value of using phase?II data in the final analysis and find that for many plausible scenarios, between 50% and 70% of the phase?II numbers on the selected treatment and control would need to be added to the phase?III sample size in order to achieve the same increase in power. ©?2014 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

SUBMITTER: Hampson LV

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4288236 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Optimizing the data combination rule for seamless phase II/III clinical trials.

Hampson Lisa V LV Jennison Christopher C

Statistics in medicine 20141015 1

We consider seamless phase II/III clinical trials that compare K treatments with a common control in phase II then test the most promising treatment against control in phase III. The final hypothesis test for the selected treatment can use data from both phases, subject to controlling the familywise type I error rate. We show that the choice of method for conducting the final hypothesis test has a substantial impact on the power to demonstrate that an effective treatment is superior to control. ...[more]

PMID: 25315892

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Project description:The risk and course of serum transaminase elevations (TEs) and clinical hepatic serious adverse event (SAE) development in ritonavir-boosted tipranavir (TPV/r) 500/200 mg BID recipients, who also received additional combination antiretroviral treatment agents in clinical trials (TPV/r-based cART), was determined.Aggregated transaminase and hepatic SAE data through 96 weeks of TPV/r-based cART from five Phase IIb/III trials were analyzed. Patients were categorized by the presence or absence of underlying liver disease (+LD or -LD). Kaplan-Meier (K-M) probability estimates for time-to-first US National Institutes of Health, Division of AIDS (DAIDS) Grade 3/4 TE and clinical hepatic SAE were determined and clinical actions/outcomes evaluated. Risk factors for DAIDS Grade 3/4 TE were identified through multivariate Cox regression statistical modeling.Grade 3/4 TEs occurred in 144/1299 (11.1%) patients; 123/144 (85%) of these were asymptomatic; 84% of these patients only temporarily interrupted treatment or continued, with transaminase levels returning to Grade < or = 2. At 96 weeks of study treatment, the incidence of Grade 3/4 TEs was higher among the +LD (16.8%) than among the -LD (10.1%) patients. K-M analysis revealed an incremental risk for developing DAIDS Grade 3/4 TEs; risk was greatest through 24 weeks (6.1%), and decreasing thereafter (>24-48 weeks: 3.4%, >48 weeks-72 weeks: 2.0%, >72-96 weeks: 2.2%), and higher in +LD than -LD patients at each 24-week interval. Treatment with TPV/r, co-infection with hepatitis B and/or C, DAIDS grade >1 TE and CD4+ > 200 cells/mm3 at baseline were found to be independent risk factors for development of DAIDS Grade 3/4 TE; the hazard ratios (HR) were 2.8, 2.0, 2.1 and 1.5, respectively. Four of the 144 (2.7%) patients with Grade 3/4 TEs developed hepatic SAEs; overall, 14/1299 (1.1%) patients had hepatic SAEs including six with hepatic failure (0.5%). The K-M risk of developing hepatic SAEs through 96 weeks was 1.4%; highest risk was observed during the first 24 weeks and decreased thereafter; the risk was similar between +LD and -LD patients for the first 24 weeks (0.6% and 0.5%, respectively) and was higher for +LD patients, thereafter.Through 96 weeks of TPV/r-based cART, DAIDS Grade 3/4 TEs and hepatic SAEs occurred in approximately 11% and 1% of TPV/r patients, respectively; most (84%) had no significant clinical implications and were managed without permanent treatment discontinuation. Among the 14 patients with hepatic SAE, 6 experienced hepatic failure (0.5%); these patients had profound immunosuppression and the rate appears higher among hepatitis co-infected patients. The overall probability of experiencing a hepatic SAE in this patient cohort was 1.4% through 96 weeks of treatment. Independent risk factors for DAIDS Grade 3/4 TEs include TPV/r treatment, co-infection with hepatitis B and/or C, DAIDS grade >1 TE and CD4+ > 200 cells/mm3 at baseline.US-NIH Trial registration number: NCT00144170.

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Optimizing the data combination rule for seamless phase?II/III clinical trials.

Publications

Optimizing the data combination rule for seamless phase II/III clinical trials.

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