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Impact of derived global weather data on simulated crop yields.

ABSTRACT: Crop simulation models can be used to estimate impact of current and future climates on crop yields and food security, but require long-term historical daily weather data to obtain robust simulations. In many regions where crops are grown, daily weather data are not available. Alternatively, gridded weather databases (GWD) with complete terrestrial coverage are available, typically derived from: (i) global circulation computer models; (ii) interpolated weather station data; or (iii) remotely sensed surface data from satellites. The present study's objective is to evaluate capacity of GWDs to simulate crop yield potential (Yp) or water-limited yield potential (Yw), which can serve as benchmarks to assess impact of climate change scenarios on crop productivity and land use change. Three GWDs (CRU, NCEP/DOE, and NASA POWER data) were evaluated for their ability to simulate Yp and Yw of rice in China, USA maize, and wheat in Germany. Simulations of Yp and Yw based on recorded daily data from well-maintained weather stations were taken as the control weather data (CWD). Agreement between simulations of Yp or Yw based on CWD and those based on GWD was poor with the latter having strong bias and large root mean square errors (RMSEs) that were 26-72% of absolute mean yield across locations and years. In contrast, simulated Yp or Yw using observed daily weather data from stations in the NOAA database combined with solar radiation from the NASA-POWER database were in much better agreement with Yp and Yw simulated with CWD (i.e. little bias and an RMSE of 12-19% of the absolute mean). We conclude that results from studies that rely on GWD to simulate agricultural productivity in current and future climates are highly uncertain. An alternative approach would impose a climate scenario on location-specific observed daily weather databases combined with an appropriate upscaling method.

SUBMITTER: van Wart J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4288967 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Nitrogen (N) is one of the key nutrients supplied in agricultural production worldwide. Over-fertilization can have negative influences on the field and the regional level (e.g., agro-ecosystems). Remote sensing of the plant N of field crops presents a valuable tool for the monitoring of N flows in agro-ecosystems. Available data for validation of satellite-based remote sensing of N is scarce. Therefore, in this study, field spectrometer measurements were used to simulate data of the Sentinel-2 (S2) satellites developed for vegetation monitoring by the ESA. The prediction performance of normalized ratio indices (NRIs), random forest regression (RFR) and Gaussian processes regression (GPR) for plant-N-related traits was assessed on a diverse real-world dataset including multiple crops, field sites and years. The plant N traits included the mass-based N measure, N concentration in the biomass (Nconc), and an area-based N measure approximating the plant N uptake (NUP). Spectral indices such as normalized ratio indices (NRIs) performed well, but the RFR and GPR methods outperformed the NRIs. Key spectral bands for each trait were identified using the RFR variable importance measure and the Gaussian processes regression band analysis tool (GPR-BAT), highlighting the importance of the short-wave infrared (SWIR) region for estimation of plant Nconc—and to a lesser extent the NUP. The red edge (RE) region was also important. The GPR-BAT showed that five bands were sufficient for plant N trait and leaf area index (LAI) estimation and that a surplus of bands effectively reduced prediction performance. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA) was performed on all traits simultaneously, showing the dominance of the LAI in the mixed remote sensing signal. To delineate the plant-N-related traits from this signal, regional and/or national data collection campaigns producing large crop spectral libraries (CSL) are needed. An improved database will likely enable the mapping of N at the agro-ecosystem level or for use in precision farming by farmers in the future.

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Impact of derived global weather data on simulated crop yields.

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