Dataset Information

Outcome prediction after mild and complicated mild traumatic brain injury: external validation of existing models and identification of new predictors using the TRACK-TBI pilot study.

ABSTRACT: Although the majority of patients with mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) recover completely, some still suffer from disabling ailments at 3 or 6 months. We validated existing prognostic models for mTBI and explored predictors of poor outcome after mTBI. We selected patients with mTBI from TRACK-TBI Pilot, an unselected observational cohort of TBI patients from three centers in the United States. We validated two prognostic models for the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOS-E) at 6 months after injury. One model was based on the CRASH study data and another from Nijmegen, The Netherlands. Possible predictors of 3- and 6-month GOS-E were analyzed with univariate and multi-variable proportional odds regression models. Of the 386 of 485 patients included in the study (median age, 44 years; interquartile range, 27-58), 75% (n=290) presented with a Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) of 15. In this mTBI population, both previously developed models had a poor performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.49-0.56). In multivariable analyses, the strongest predictors of lower 3- and 6-month GOS-E were older age, pre-existing psychiatric conditions, and lower education. Injury caused by assault, extracranial injuries, and lower GCS were also predictive of lower GOS-E. Existing models for mTBI performed unsatisfactorily. Our study shows that, for mTBI, different predictors are relevant as for moderate and severe TBI. These include age, pre-existing psychiatric conditions, and lower education. Development of a valid prediction model for mTBI patients requires further research efforts.

SUBMITTER: Lingsma HF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4291219 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Outcome prediction after mild and complicated mild traumatic brain injury: external validation of existing models and identification of new predictors using the TRACK-TBI pilot study.

Lingsma Hester F HF Yue John K JK Maas Andrew I R AI Steyerberg Ewout W EW Manley Geoffrey T GT

Journal of neurotrauma 20141125 2

Although the majority of patients with mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) recover completely, some still suffer from disabling ailments at 3 or 6 months. We validated existing prognostic models for mTBI and explored predictors of poor outcome after mTBI. We selected patients with mTBI from TRACK-TBI Pilot, an unselected observational cohort of TBI patients from three centers in the United States. We validated two prognostic models for the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOS-E) at 6 months after ...[more]

PMID: 25025611

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Project description:Return to work (RTW) is an important milestone of mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) recovery. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether baseline clinical variables, three-month RTW, and three-month postconcussional symptoms (PCS) were associated with six-month RTW after mTBI. Adult subjects from the prospective multicenter Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury Pilot study with mTBI (Glasgow Coma Scale 13-15) who were employed at baseline, with completed three-and six-month RTW status, and three-month Acute Concussion Evaluation (ACE), were extracted. Univariate and multivariable analyses were performed for six-month RTW, with focus on baseline employment, three-month RTW, and three-month ACE domains (physical, cognitive, sleep, and/or emotional postconcussional symptoms (PCS)). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals [CI] were reported. Significance was assessed at p < 0.05. In 152 patients aged 40.7 ± 15.0years, 72% were employed full-time at baseline. Three- and six-month RTW were 77.6% and 78.9%, respectively. At three months, 59.2%, 47.4%, 46.1% and 31.6% scored positive for ACE physical, cognitive, sleep, and emotional PCS domains, respectively. Three-month RTW predicted six-month RTW (OR = 19.80, 95% CI [7.61-51.52]). On univariate analysis, scoring positive in any three-month ACE domain predicted inability for six-month RTW (OR = 0.10-0.11). On multivariable analysis, emotional symptoms predicted inability to six-month RTW (OR = 0.19 [0.04-0.85]). Subjects who scored positive in all four ACE domains were more likely to be unable to RTW at six months (4 domains: 58.3%, vs. 0-to-3 domains: 9.5%; multivariable OR = 0.09 [0.02-0.33]). Three-month post-injury is an important time point at which RTW status and PCS should be assessed, as both are prognostic markers for six-month RTW. Clinicians should be particularly vigilant of patients who present with emotional symptoms, and patients with symptoms across multiple PCS categories, as these patients are at further risk of inability to RTW and may benefit from targeted evaluation and support.

Project description:ImportanceA head computed tomography (CT) with positive results for acute intracranial hemorrhage is the gold-standard diagnostic biomarker for acute traumatic brain injury (TBI). In moderate to severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] scores 3-12), some CT features have been shown to be associated with outcomes. In mild TBI (mTBI; GCS scores 13-15), distribution and co-occurrence of pathological CT features and their prognostic importance are not well understood.ObjectiveTo identify pathological CT features associated with adverse outcomes after mTBI.Design, setting, and participantsThe longitudinal, observational Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury (TRACK-TBI) study enrolled patients with TBI, including those 17 years and older with GCS scores of 13 to 15 who presented to emergency departments at 18 US level 1 trauma centers between February 26, 2014, and August 8, 2018, and underwent head CT imaging within 24 hours of TBI. Evaluations of CT imaging used TBI Common Data Elements. Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOSE) scores were assessed at 2 weeks and 3, 6, and 12 months postinjury. External validation of results was performed via the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) study. Data analyses were completed from February 2020 to February 2021.ExposuresAcute nonpenetrating head trauma.Main outcomes and measuresFrequency, co-occurrence, and clustering of CT features; incomplete recovery (GOSE scores <8 vs 8); and an unfavorable outcome (GOSE scores <5 vs ≥5) at 2 weeks and 3, 6, and 12 months.ResultsIn 1935 patients with mTBI (mean [SD] age, 41.5 [17.6] years; 1286 men [66.5%]) in the TRACK-TBI cohort and 2594 patients with mTBI (mean [SD] age, 51.8 [20.3] years; 1658 men [63.9%]) in an external validation cohort, hierarchical cluster analysis identified 3 major clusters of CT features: contusion, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and/or subdural hematoma; intraventricular and/or petechial hemorrhage; and epidural hematoma. Contusion, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and/or subdural hematoma features were associated with incomplete recovery (odds ratios [ORs] for GOSE scores <8 at 1 year: TRACK-TBI, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.39-2.33]; CENTER-TBI, 2.73 [95% CI, 2.18-3.41]) and greater degrees of unfavorable outcomes (ORs for GOSE scores <5 at 1 year: TRACK-TBI, 3.23 [95% CI, 1.59-6.58]; CENTER-TBI, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.13-2.49]) out to 12 months after injury, but epidural hematoma was not. Intraventricular and/or petechial hemorrhage was associated with greater degrees of unfavorable outcomes up to 12 months after injury (eg, OR for GOSE scores <5 at 1 year in TRACK-TBI: 3.47 [95% CI, 1.66-7.26]). Some CT features were more strongly associated with outcomes than previously validated variables (eg, ORs for GOSE scores <5 at 1 year in TRACK-TBI: neuropsychiatric history, 1.43 [95% CI .98-2.10] vs contusion, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and/or subdural hematoma, 3.23 [95% CI 1.59-6.58]). Findings were externally validated in 2594 patients with mTBI enrolled in the CENTER-TBI study.Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, pathological CT features carried different prognostic implications after mTBI to 1 year postinjury. Some patterns of injury were associated with worse outcomes than others. These results support that patients with mTBI and these CT features need TBI-specific education and systematic follow-up.

Project description:The relationship between systemic inflammation and secondary injury in traumatic brain injury (TBI) is complex. We investigated associations between inflammatory markers and clinical confirmation of TBI diagnosis and prognosis. The prospective TRACK-TBI Pilot (Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury Pilot) study enrolled TBI patients triaged to head computed tomography (CT) and received blood draw within 24 h of injury. Healthy controls (HCs) and orthopedic controls (OCs) were included. Thirty-one inflammatory markers were analyzed from plasma. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate discriminatory ability. AUC >0.7 was considered acceptable. Criteria included: TBI diagnosis (vs. OC/HC); moderate/severe vs. mild TBI (Glasgow Coma Scale; GCS); radiographic TBI (CT positive vs. CT negative); 3- and 6-month Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOSE) dichotomized to death/greater relative disability versus less relative disability (GOSE 1-4/5-8); and incomplete versus full recovery (GOSE <8/ = 8). One-hundred sixty TBI subjects, 28 OCs, and 18 HCs were included. Markers discriminating TBI/OC: HMGB-1 (AUC = 0.835), IL-1b (0.795), IL-16 (0.784), IL-7 (0.742), and TARC (0.731). Markers discriminating GCS 3-12/13-15: IL-6 (AUC = 0.747), CRP (0.726), IL-15 (0.720), and SAA (0.716). Markers discriminating CT positive/CT negative: SAA (AUC = 0.767), IL-6 (0.757), CRP (0.733), and IL-15 (0.724). At 3 months, IL-15 (AUC = 0.738) and IL-2 (0.705) discriminated GOSE 5-8/1-4. At 6 months, IL-15 discriminated GOSE 1-4/5-8 (AUC = 0.704) and GOSE <8/ = 8 (0.711); SAA discriminated GOSE 1-4/5-8 (0.704). We identified a profile of acute circulating inflammatory proteins with potential relevance for TBI diagnosis, severity differentiation, and prognosis. IL-15 and serum amyloid A are priority markers with acceptable discrimination across multiple diagnostic and outcome categories. Validation in larger prospective cohorts is needed. ClinicalTrials.gov Registration: NCT01565551.

Project description:ImportanceKnowledge of differences in mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) recovery by sex and age may inform individualized treatment of these patients.ObjectiveTo identify sex-related differences in symptom recovery from mTBI; secondarily, to explore age differences within women, who demonstrate poorer outcomes after TBI.Design, setting, and participantsThe prospective cohort study Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury (TRACK-TBI) recruited 2000 patients with mTBI from February 26, 2014, to July 3, 2018, and 299 patients with orthopedic trauma (who served as controls) from January 26, 2016, to July 27, 2018. Patients were recruited from 18 level I trauma centers and followed up for 12 months. Data were analyzed from August 19, 2020, to March 3, 2021.ExposuresPatients with mTBI (defined by a Glasgow Coma Scale score of 13-15) triaged to head computed tomography in 24 hours or less; patients with orthopedic trauma served as controls.Main outcomes and measuresMeasured outcomes included (1) the Rivermead Post Concussion Symptoms Questionnaire (RPQ), a 16-item self-report scale that assesses postconcussion symptom severity over the past 7 days relative to preinjury; (2) the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Fifth Edition) (PCL-5), a 20-item test that measures the severity of posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms; (3) the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), a 9-item scale that measures depression based on symptom frequency over the past 2 weeks; and (4) the Brief Symptom Inventory-18 (BSI-18), an 18-item scale of psychological distress (split into Depression and Anxiety subscales).ResultsA total of 2000 patients with mTBI (1331 men [67%; mean (SD) age, 41.0 (17.3) years; 1026 White (78%)] and 669 women [33%; mean (SD) age, 43.0 (18.5) years; 505 (76%) White]). After adjustment of multiple comparisons, significant TBI × sex interactions were observed for cognitive symptoms (B = 0.76; 5% false discovery rate-corrected P = .02) and somatic RPQ symptoms (B = 0.80; 5% false discovery rate-corrected P = .02), with worse symptoms in women with mTBI than men, but no sex difference in symptoms in control patients with orthopedic trauma. Within the female patients evaluated, there was a significant TBI × age interaction for somatic RPQ symptoms, which were worse in female patients with mTBI aged 35 to 49 years compared with those aged 17 to 34 years (B = 1.65; P = .02) or older than 50 years (B = 1.66; P = .02).Conclusions and relevanceThis study found that women were more vulnerable than men to persistent mTBI-related cognitive and somatic symptoms, whereas no sex difference in symptom burden was seen after orthopedic injury. Postconcussion symptoms were also worse in women aged 35 to 49 years than in younger and older women, but further investigation is needed to corroborate these findings and to identify the mechanisms involved. Results suggest that individualized clinical management of mTBI should consider sex and age, as some women are especially predisposed to chronic postconcussion symptoms even 12 months after injury.

Dataset Information

Outcome prediction after mild and complicated mild traumatic brain injury: external validation of existing models and identification of new predictors using the TRACK-TBI pilot study.

Publications

Outcome prediction after mild and complicated mild traumatic brain injury: external validation of existing models and identification of new predictors using the TRACK-TBI pilot study.

Similar Datasets

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