Dataset Information

Assessing the importance of predictors in unplanned hospital readmissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

The all-cause readmission rate within 30 days of index admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) was approximately 21% in the United States in 2008. This study aimed to examine patient and clinical characteristics predicting 30-day unplanned readmissions for an initial COPD hospitalization and to determine those predictors' importance.

Patients and methods

A retrospective study was conducted in patients with COPD-related hospitalizations using commercial claims data from 2010 to 2012. The primary outcome was all-cause unplanned readmission, with secondary outcomes being COPD as primary diagnosis and COPD as any diagnosis unplanned readmissions. Factors predicting unplanned readmissions encompassed demographic, pharmacy, and medical variables identified at baseline and during the index hospitalization. Dominance analysis was conducted to rank the predictors in terms of importance, defined as the contribution to change in model fit of a predictor by itself and in combination with other predictors.

Results

After applying the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 18,282 patients with index COPD-related admissions were identified. Among them, the rates of unplanned readmissions with COPD as primary diagnosis, COPD as any diagnosis, and all-cause were 2.6%, 5.6%, and 7.3%, respectively. For each outcome, the readmission group was slightly older, had a greater COPD severity score, and required a longer length of stay. Moreover, the readmission group had larger proportions of patients with comorbidities, dyspnea/shortness of breath, intensive care unit stay, or ventilator use, compared to the non-readmission group. Dominance analysis revealed that the three most important predictors - heart failure/heart disease, anemia, and COPD severity score - accounted for 56% of the predicted variance in all-cause unplanned readmissions.

Conclusion

Overall, COPD severity score and heart failure/heart disease emerged as important factors in predicting 30-day unplanned readmissions across all three outcomes. Results from dominance analysis suggest looking beyond COPD-specific complications and focusing on comorbid conditions highly associated with COPD in order to lower all-cause unplanned readmissions.

SUBMITTER: Yu TC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4293216 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Assessing the importance of predictors in unplanned hospital readmissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Yu Tzy-Chyi TC Zhou Huanxue H Suh Kangho K Arcona Stephen S

ClinicoEconomics and outcomes research : CEOR 20150106

<h4>Purpose</h4>The all-cause readmission rate within 30 days of index admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) was approximately 21% in the United States in 2008. This study aimed to examine patient and clinical characteristics predicting 30-day unplanned readmissions for an initial COPD hospitalization and to determine those predictors' importance.<h4>Patients and methods</h4>A retrospective study was conducted in patients with COPD-related hospitalizations using commercial ...[more]

PMID: 25609986

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Project description:Rationale: In October 2012, the initial phase of the Hospital Readmission Reduction Program imposed financial penalties on hospitals with higher-than-expected risk-adjusted 30-day readmission rates for Medicare beneficiaries with congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, and pneumonia. We hypothesized that these penalties may also be associated with decreased readmissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the general population before COPD became a target condition (October 2014).Objectives: To determine if implementation of the initial financial penalties for other conditions was associated with a decrease in hospital readmissions for COPD.Methods: We used population-level data to examine patients readmitted for any reason or for COPD within 30 days after an initial hospitalization for COPD. The data source was seven states in the State Inpatient Database. The preimplementation period included calendar years 2006 to 2012. The postimplementation period included 2013 to 2015. Using interrupted time series, the level change was examined, which reflected the difference between the expected and actual readmission rates in 2013. The difference in slopes between the pre- and postimplementation periods was also examined.Results: We identified 805,764 hospitalizations for COPD from 904 hospitals. Overall, 26% of patients had primary insurance other than Medicare. After the intervention, patients had lower rates of all-cause 30-day readmissions (level change, -0.93%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.44% to -0.43%; P = 0.004), which was driven by fewer early readmissions (0-7 d). The postimplementation slope became positive; the difference in slopes was 0.39% (95% CI, 0.28% to 0.50%; P < 0.001). Patients also had lower rates of COPD-related readmissions (level decrease, -0.52%; 95% CI, -0.93% to -0.12%; P = 0.02), which was due to decreases in both early and late (8-30 d) readmissions. The postimplementation slope was negative; the difference in slopes was -0.21% (95% CI, -0.35% to -0.07%; P = 0.009).Conclusions: In patients with COPD and any insurance status, there was an association between the initial phase of the Hospital Readmission Reduction Program and a decrease in both all-cause and COPD-related readmissions even before COPD became a target diagnosis. The large amount of money at risk to hospitals likely resulted in broad behavioral change. Future research is needed to test which levers can effectively reduce readmission rates for COPD.

Project description:RationaleUnderstanding the causes and factors related to readmission for an acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) within a nationwide database including all payers and ages can provide valuable input for the development of generalizable readmission reduction strategies.ObjectivesTo determine the rates, causes, and predictors for early (3-, 7-, and 30-d) readmission in patients hospitalized with AECOPD in the United States using the Nationwide Readmission Database after the initiation of the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program, but before its expansion to COPD.MethodsWe conducted an analysis of the Nationwide Readmission Database from 2013 to 2014. Index admissions and readmissions for an AECOPD were defined consistent with Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program guidelines. We investigated the percentage of 30-day readmissions occurring each day after discharge and the most common readmission diagnoses at different time periods after hospitalization. The relationship between predictors (categorized as patient, clinical, and hospital factors) and early readmission were evaluated using a hierarchical two-level logistic model. To examine covariate effects on early-day readmission, predictors for 3-, 7-, and 30-day readmissions were modeled separately.ResultsThere were 202,300 30-day readmissions after 1,055,830 index AECOPD admissions, a rate of 19.2%. The highest readmission rates (4.2-5.5%) were within the first 72 hours of discharge, and 58% of readmissions were within the first 15 days. Respiratory-based diseases were the most common reasons for readmission (52.4%), and COPD was the most common diagnosis (28.4%). Readmission diagnoses were similar at different time periods after discharge. Early readmission was associated with patient (Medicaid payer status, lower household income, and higher comorbidity burden) and clinical factors (longer length of stay and discharge to a skilled nursing facility). Predictors did not vary substantially by time of readmission after discharge within the 30-day window.ConclusionsThirty-day readmissions after an AECOPD remain a major healthcare burden, and are characterized by a similar spectrum of readmission diagnoses. Predictors associated with readmission include both patient and clinical factors. Development of a COPD-specific risk stratification algorithm based on these factors may be necessary to better predict patients with AECOPD at high risk of early readmission.

Project description:BackgroundHospital readmission rates decreased for myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure (CHF), and pneumonia with implementation of the first phase of the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP). It is not established whether readmissions fell for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), an HRRP condition added in 2014.ObjectiveWe sought to determine whether HRRP penalties influenced COPD readmissions among Medicare, Medicaid, or privately insured patients.DesignWe analyzed a retrospective cohort, evaluating readmissions across implementation periods for HRRP penalties ("pre-HRRP" January 2010-April 2011, "implementation" May 2011-September 2012, "partial penalty" October 2012-September 2014, and "full penalty" October 2014-December 2016).PatientsWe assessed discharged patients ≥ 40 years old with COPD versus those with HRRP Phase 1 conditions (AMI, CHF, and pneumonia) or non-HRRP residual diagnoses in the Nationwide Readmissions Database.InterventionsHRRP was announced and implemented during this period, forming a natural experiment.MeasurementsWe calculated differences-in-differences (DID) for 30-day COPD versus HRRP Phase 1 and non-HRRP readmissions.Key resultsCOPD discharges for 1.2 million Medicare enrollees were compared with 22 million non-HRRP and 3.4 million HRRP Phase 1 discharges. COPD readmissions decreased from 19 to 17% over the study. This reduction was significantly greater than non-HRRP conditions (DID - 0.41%), but not HRRP Phase 1 (DID + 0.02%). A parallel trend was observed in the privately insured, with significant reduction compared with non-HRRP (DID - 0.83%), but not HRRP Phase 1 conditions (DID - 0.45%). Non-significant reductions occurred in Medicaid (DID - 0.52% vs. non-HRRP and - 0.21% vs. Phase 1 conditions).ConclusionsIn Medicare, HRRP implementation was associated with reductions in COPD readmissions compared with non-HRRP controls but not versus other HRRP conditions. Parallel findings were observed in commercial insurance, but not in Medicaid. Condition-specific penalties may not reduce readmissions further than existing HRRP trends.

Dataset Information

Assessing the importance of predictors in unplanned hospital readmissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Purpose

Patients and methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Assessing the importance of predictors in unplanned hospital readmissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

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