Dataset Information

Predicting Onset and Duration of Airborne Allergenic Pollen Season in the United States.

ABSTRACT: Allergenic pollen is one of the main triggers of Allergic Airway Disease (AAD) affecting 5% to 30% of the population in industrialized countries. A modeling framework has been developed using correlation and collinearity analyses, simulated annealing, and stepwise regression based on nationwide observations of airborne pollen counts and climatic factors to predict the onsets and durations of allergenic pollen seasons of representative trees, weeds and grass in the contiguous United States. Main factors considered are monthly, seasonal and annual mean temperatures and accumulative precipitations, latitude, elevation, Growing Degree Day (GDD), Frost Free Day (FFD), Start Date (SD) and Season Length (SL) in the previous year. The estimated mean SD and SL for birch (Betula), oak (Quercus), ragweed (Ambrosia), mugwort (Artemisia) and grass (Poaceae) pollen season in 1994-2010 are mostly within 0 to 6 days of the corresponding observations for the majority of the National Allergy Bureau (NAB) monitoring stations across the contiguous US. The simulated spatially resolved maps for onset and duration of allergenic pollen season in the contiguous US are consistent with the long term observations.

SUBMITTER: Zhang Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4302955 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting Onset and Duration of Airborne Allergenic Pollen Season in the United States.

Zhang Yong Y Bielory Leonard L Cai Ting T Mi Zhongyuan Z Georgopoulos Panos P

Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994) 20150201

Allergenic pollen is one of the main triggers of Allergic Airway Disease (AAD) affecting 5% to 30% of the population in industrialized countries. A modeling framework has been developed using correlation and collinearity analyses, simulated annealing, and stepwise regression based on nationwide observations of airborne pollen counts and climatic factors to predict the onsets and durations of allergenic pollen seasons of representative trees, weeds and grass in the contiguous United States. Main ...[more]

PMID: 25620875

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Project description:Longitudinal shifts in pollen onset, duration, and intensity are public health concerns for the growing number of individuals with pollen sensitization. National analyses of long-term pollen changes are influenced by how a plant's main pollen season (MPS) is defined. Prior Swiss studies have inconsistently applied MPS definitions, leading to heterogeneous conclusions regarding the magnitude, directionality, and significance of multi-decade pollen trends. We examined national pollen data in Switzerland between 1990 and 2020, applying six MPS definitions (2 percentage-based and 4 threshold-based) to twelve relevant allergenic plants. We analyzed changes in pollen season using both linear regression and locally estimated scatterplot smoothing (LOESS). For 4 of the 12 plant species, there is unanimity between definitions regarding earlier onset of pollen season (p < 0.05), with magnitude of 31-year change dependent on specific MPS definition (hazel: 9-18 days; oak: 5-13 days; grasses: 8-25 days; and nettle/hemp: 6-25 days). There is also consensus (p < 0.05) for modified MPS duration among hazel (21-104% longer), nettle/hemp (8-52% longer), and ash (18-38% shorter). Between-definition agreement is highest for MPS intensity analysis, with consensus for significant increases in seasonal pollen quantity (p < 0.05) among hazel, birch, oak, beech, and nettle/hemp. The largest relative intensification is noted for hazel (110-146%) and beech (162-237%). LOESS analysis indicates that these multi-decade pollen changes are typically nonlinear. The robustness of MPS definitions is highly dependent on annual pollen accumulation, with definition choice particularly influential for long-term analysis of low-pollen plants such as ragweed. We identify systematic differences between MPS definitions and suggest future aerobiologic studies apply multiple definitions to minimize bias. In summary, national pollen onset, duration, and intensity have shifted for some plants in Switzerland, with MPS definition choice affecting magnitude and significance of these variations. Future public health research can determine whether these temporal and quantitative pollen changes correlate with longitudinal differences in population pollen sensitization.

Project description:Temperature gradients in cities can cause inter-neighborhood differences in the timing of pollen release. However, most epidemiological studies examining allergenic pollen utilize daily measurements from a single pollen monitoring station with the implicit assumption that the measured time series of airborne pollen concentrations applies across the study areas, and that the temporal mismatch between concentrations at the counting station and elsewhere in the study area is negligible. This assumption is tested by quantifying temperature using satellite imagery, observing flowering times of oak (Quercus) and mulberry (Morus) trees at multiple sites, and collecting airborne pollen. Epidemiological studies of allergenic pollen are reviewed and temperatures within their study areas are quantified. In this one-year study, peak oak flowering time was well explained by average February nighttime temperature (R2 = 0.94), which varied by 6 °C across Detroit. This relationship was used to predict flowering phenology across the study region. Peak flowering ranged from April 20-May 13 and predicted a substantial portion of relative airborne oak pollen concentrations in Detroit (R2 = 0.46) and at the regional pollen monitoring station (R2 = 0.61). The regional pollen monitoring station was located in a cooler outlying area where peak flowering occurred around May 12 and peak pollen concentrations were measured on May 15. This provides evidence that the timing of pollen release varies substantially within a metropolitan area and challenges the assumption that pollen measurements at a single location are representative of an entire city. Across the epidemiological studies, 50% of study areas were not within 1 °C (equal to a lag or lead of 4 days in flowering time) of temperatures at the pollen measurement location. Epidemiological studies using a single pollen station as a proxy for pollen concentrations are prone to significant measurement error if the study area is climatically variable.

Dataset Information

Predicting Onset and Duration of Airborne Allergenic Pollen Season in the United States.

Publications

Predicting Onset and Duration of Airborne Allergenic Pollen Season in the United States.

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