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Predicting time to threshold for initiating antiretroviral treatment to evaluate cost of treatment as prevention of human immunodeficiency virus.

ABSTRACT: The goal of this paper is to predict the additional amount of antiretroviral treatment that would be required to implement a policy of treating all HIV-infected people at time of detection of infection rather than at the time that their CD4 T-lymphocyte counts are observed to be below a threshold-the current standard of care. We describe a sampling-based inverse prediction method for predicting time from HIV infection to attainment of the CD4 threshold and apply it to a set of treatment-naive HIV-infected subjects in a village in Botswana who participated in a household survey that collected cross-sectional CD4 counts. The inferential target of interest is the population-level mean time to reaching CD4-based treatment threshold in this group of subjects. To address the challenges arising from the fact that these subject's dates of HIV infection are unknown, we make use of data from an auxiliary cohort study of subjects enrolled shortly after HIV infection in which CD4 counts were measured over time. We use a multiple imputation framework to combine across the different sources of data, and discuss how the methods compensate for the length-biased sampling inherent in cross-sectional screening procedures, such as household surveys. We comment on how the results bear upon analyses of costs of implementation of treatment-for-prevention use of antiretroviral drugs in HIV prevention interventions.

SUBMITTER: Lynch ML

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4302962 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting time to threshold for initiating antiretroviral treatment to evaluate cost of treatment as prevention of human immunodeficiency virus.

Lynch Miranda L ML DeGruttola Victor V

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics 20150201 2

The goal of this paper is to predict the additional amount of antiretroviral treatment that would be required to implement a policy of treating all HIV-infected people at time of detection of infection rather than at the time that their CD4 T-lymphocyte counts are observed to be below a threshold-the current standard of care. We describe a sampling-based inverse prediction method for predicting time from HIV infection to attainment of the CD4 threshold and apply it to a set of treatment-naive HI ...[more]

PMID: 25620814

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Project description:The use of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) comprising three antiretroviral medications from at least two classes of drugs is the current standard treatment for HIV infection in adults and children. Current World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for antiretroviral therapy recommend early treatment regardless of immunologic thresholds or the clinical condition for all infants (less than one years of age) and children under the age of two years. For children aged two to five years current WHO guidelines recommend (based on low quality evidence) that clinical and immunological thresholds be used to identify those who need to start cART (advanced clinical stage or CD4 counts ? 750 cells/mm(3) or per cent CD4 ? 25%). This Cochrane review will inform the current available evidence regarding the optimal time for treatment initiation in children aged two to five years with the goal of informing the revision of WHO 2013 recommendations on when to initiate cART in children.To assess the evidence for the optimal time to initiate cART in treatment-naive, HIV-infected children aged 2 to 5 years.We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE, the AEGIS conference database, specific relevant conferences, www.clinicaltrials.gov, the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry platform and reference lists of articles. The date of the most recent search was 30 September 2012.Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that compared immediate with deferred initiation of cART, and prospective cohort studies which followed children from enrolment to start of cART and on cART.Two review authors considered studies for inclusion in the review, assessed the risk of bias, and extracted data on the primary outcome of death from all causes and several secondary outcomes, including incidence of CDC category C and B clinical events and per cent CD4 cells (CD4%) at study end. For RCTs we calculated relative risks (RR) or mean differences with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). For cohort data, we extracted relative risks with 95% CI from adjusted analyses. We combined results from RCTs using a random effects model and examined statistical heterogeneity.Two RCTs in HIV-positive children aged 1 to 12 years were identified. One trial was the pilot study for the larger second trial and both compared initiation of cART regardless of clinical-immunological conditions with deferred initiation until per cent CD4 dropped to <15%. The two trials were conducted in Thailand, and Thailand and Cambodia, respectively. Unpublished analyses of the 122 children enrolled at ages 2 to 5 years were included in this review. There was one death in the immediate cART group and no deaths in the deferred group (RR 2.9; 95% CI 0.12 to 68.9). In the subgroup analysis of children aged 24 to 59 months, there was one CDC C event in each group (RR 0.96; 95% CI 0.06 to 14.87) and 8 and 11 CDC B events in the immediate and deferred groups respectively (RR 0.95; 95% CI 0.24 to 3.73). In this subgroup, the mean difference in CD4 per cent at study end was 5.9% (95% CI 2.7 to 9.1). One cohort study from South Africa, which compared the effect of delaying cART for up to 60 days in 573 HIV-positive children starting tuberculosis treatment (median age 3.5 years), was also included. The adjusted hazard ratios for the effect on mortality of delaying ART for more than 60 days was 1.32 (95% CI 0.55 to 3.16).This systematic review shows that there is insufficient evidence from clinical trials in support of either early or CD4-guided initiation of ART in HIV-infected children aged 2 to 5 years. Programmatic issues such as the retention in care of children in ART programmes in resource-limited settings will need to be considered when formulating WHO 2013 recommendations.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Inflammation and hemostasis perturbation may be involved in vascular complications of HIV infection. We examined atherogenic biomarkers and subclinical atherosclerosis in HIV-infected adults before and after beginning highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). METHODS:In the Women's Interagency HIV Study, 127 HIV-infected women studied pre and post HAART were matched to HIV-uninfected controls. Six semiannual measurements of soluble CD14, tumor necrosis factor (TNF) alfa, soluble interleukin (IL) 2 receptor, IL-6, IL-10, monocyte chemoattractant protein 1, D-dimer, and fibrinogen were obtained. Carotid artery intima-media thickness was measured by B-mode ultrasound. RESULTS:Relative to HIV-uninfected controls, HAART-naive HIV-infected women had elevated levels of soluble CD14 (1945 vs 1662 ng/mL, Wilcoxon signed rank P < 0.0001), TNF-? (6.3 vs 3.4 pg/mL, P < 0.0001), soluble IL-2 receptor (1587 vs 949 pg/mL, P < 0.0001), IL-10 (3.3 vs 1.9 pg/mL, P < 0.0001), monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 (190 vs 163 pg/mL, P < 0.0001), and D-dimer (0.43 vs 0.31 ?g/mL, P < 0.01). Elevated biomarker levels declined after HAART. Although most biomarkers normalized to HIV-uninfected levels, in women on effective HAART, TNF-? levels remained elevated compared with HIV-uninfected women (+0.8 pg/mL, P = 0.0002). Higher post-HAART levels of soluble IL-2 receptor (P = 0.02), IL-6 (P = 0.05), and D-dimer (P = 0.03) were associated with increased carotid artery intima-media thickness. CONCLUSIONS:Untreated HIV infection is associated with abnormal hemostasis (eg, D-dimer), proatherogenic (eg, TNF-?), and antiatherogenic (eg, IL-10) inflammatory markers. HAART reduces most inflammatory mediators to HIV-uninfected levels. Increased inflammation and hemostasis are associated with subclinical atherosclerosis in recently treated women. These findings have potential implications for long-term risk of cardiovascular disease in HIV-infected patients, even with effective therapy.

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Predicting time to threshold for initiating antiretroviral treatment to evaluate cost of treatment as prevention of human immunodeficiency virus.

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Predicting time to threshold for initiating antiretroviral treatment to evaluate cost of treatment as prevention of human immunodeficiency virus.

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