Dataset Information

Demographic effects of extreme weather events: snow storms, breeding success, and population growth rate in a long-lived Antarctic seabird.

ABSTRACT: Weather extremes are one important element of ongoing climate change, but their impacts are poorly understood because they are, by definition, rare events. If the frequency and severity of extreme weather events increase, there is an urgent need to understand and predict the ecological consequences of such events. In this study, we aimed to quantify the effects of snow storms on nest survival in Antarctic petrels and assess whether snow storms are an important driver of annual breeding success and population growth rate. We used detailed data on daily individual nest survival in a year with frequent and heavy snow storms, and long term data on petrel productivity (i.e., number of chicks produced) at the colony level. Our results indicated that snow storms are an important determinant of nest survival and overall productivity. Snow storm events explained 30% of the daily nest survival within the 2011/2012 season and nearly 30% of the interannual variation in colony productivity in period 1985-2014. Snow storms are a key driver of Antarctic petrel breeding success, and potentially population dynamics. We also found state-dependent effects of snow storms and chicks in poor condition were more likely to die during a snow storm than chicks in good condition. This stresses the importance of considering interactions between individual heterogeneity and extreme weather events to understand both individual and population responses to climate change.

SUBMITTER: Descamps S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4314264 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Demographic effects of extreme weather events: snow storms, breeding success, and population growth rate in a long-lived Antarctic seabird.

Descamps Sébastien S Tarroux Arnaud A Varpe Øystein Ø Yoccoz Nigel G NG Tveraa Torkild T Lorentsen Svein-Håkon SH

Ecology and evolution 20141223 2

Weather extremes are one important element of ongoing climate change, but their impacts are poorly understood because they are, by definition, rare events. If the frequency and severity of extreme weather events increase, there is an urgent need to understand and predict the ecological consequences of such events. In this study, we aimed to quantify the effects of snow storms on nest survival in Antarctic petrels and assess whether snow storms are an important driver of annual breeding success a ...[more]

PMID: 25691959

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Project description:Density-dependent regulation can offer resilience to wild populations experiencing fluctuations in environmental conditions because, at lower population sizes, the average quality of habitats or resources is predicted to increase. Site-dependent regulation is a mechanism whereby individuals breed at the highest quality, most successful, sites, leaving poorer quality, less successful sites vacant. As population size increases, higher quality sites become limiting but when populations decline, lower quality sites are vacated first, offering resilience. This process is known as the 'buffer effect'. However, few studies have tested whether such regulation operates in populations experiencing changes in size and trend. We used data from a population of common guillemots Uria aalge, a colonially breeding seabird, to investigate the relationship between site occupancy probability, site quality and population size and trend. These data were collected at five sub-colonies spanning a 38-year period (1981-2018) comprising phases of population increase, decrease and recovery. We first tested whether site quality and population size in sub-colonies explained which sites were occupied for breeding, and if this was robust to changes in sub-colony trend. We then investigated whether disproportionate use of higher quality sites drove average site quality and breeding success across sub-colony sizes and trends. Finally, we tested whether individuals consistently occupied higher quality sites during periods of decline and recovery. Higher quality sites were disproportionality used when sub-colony size was smaller, resulting in higher average site quality and breeding success at lower population sizes. This relationship was unaffected by changes in sub-colony trend. However, contrary to the predictions of the buffer effect, new sites were established at a similar rate to historically occupied sites during sub-colony decline and recovery despite being of lower quality. Our results provide support for the buffer effect conferring resilience to populations, such that average breeding success was consistently higher at lower population size during all phases of population change. However, this process was tempered by the continued establishment of new, lower quality, sites which could act to slow population recovery after periods when colony size was low.

Project description:The importance of nest characteristics for birds breeding in the extreme climate conditions of polar regions, has been greatly understudied. Nest parameters, like nest orientation, exposure and insulation, could strongly influence microclimate and protection against precipitation of the nest, thereby affecting breeding success. A burrow nesting seabird, the Wilson's storm-petrel (Oceanites oceanicus) is an excellent model species to investigate the importance of nest characteristics, as it is the smallest endotherm breeding in the Antarctic. Here, we investigated the effects of nest parameters such as internal nest dimensions, nest micro-topography and thermal properties of the nest burrow and the influence of weather conditions on breeding output, measured as hatching success, chick survival, and chick growth. We collected data during the austral summers of 2017 and 2018, on King George Island, maritime Antarctica. Our results showed that the thermal microclimate of the nest burrow was significantly improved by a small entrance size, a low nest height, and insulation and tended to be enhanced by a low wind exposition index and an eastern nest site orientation. In addition, an eastern nest site orientation significantly reduced the chance of snow blocking. However, the relationships between nest characteristics and breeding output were complex and might be affected by other parameters like food availability and parental quality. The relation between chick growth and nest air temperature remained especially indistinct. Nevertheless, our results indicate that nest characteristics that enhance the thermal microclimate and reduce the risk of snow blocking favoured both hatching success and chick survival. Due to climate change in the Antarctic, snowfall is expected to increase in the future, which will likely enhance the importance of nest characteristics that determine snow blocking. Additionally, despite global warming, thermally favourable nest burrows will likely still be advantageous in the highly variable and challenging Antarctic climate.

Dataset Information

Demographic effects of extreme weather events: snow storms, breeding success, and population growth rate in a long-lived Antarctic seabird.

Publications

Demographic effects of extreme weather events: snow storms, breeding success, and population growth rate in a long-lived Antarctic seabird.

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