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Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

ABSTRACT: The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

SUBMITTER: Rao MS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4324841 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundSpodoptera litura (Fabricius) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) also known as tobacco caterpillar, is one of the most serious polyphagous pests that cause economic losses to a variety of commercially important agricultural crops. Over the past few years, many conventional insecticides have been used to control this pest. However, the indiscriminate use of these chemicals has led to development of insecticide resistant populations of S. litura in addition to harmful effects on environment. Due to these ill effects, the emphasis is being laid on alternative eco-friendly control measures. Microbial control is one of the important components of integrated pest management. Thus, in search for novel biocontrol agents, the current work was carried out with the aim to evaluate the insecticidal potential of soil bacteria against S. litura.ResultsAmong the tested soil bacterial isolates (EN1, EN2, AA5, EN4 and R1), maximum mortality (74%) was exhibited by Pseudomonas sp. (EN4). The larval mortality rate increased in a dose-dependent manner. Bacterial infection also significantly delayed the larval development, reduced adult emergence, and induced morphological deformities in adults of S. litura. Adverse effects were also detected on various nutritional parameters. The infected larvae showed a significant decrease in relative growth and consumption rate as well as efficiency of conversion of ingested and digested food to biomass. Histopathological studies indicated damage to the midgut epithelial layer of larvae due to the consumption of bacteria treated diet. The infected larvae also showed a significantly decreased level of various digestive enzymes. Furthermore, exposure to Pseudomonas sp. also caused DNA damage in the hemocytes of S. litura larvae.ConclusionAdverse effects of Pseudomonas sp. EN4 on various biological parameters of S. litura indicate that this soil bacterial strain may be used as an effective biocontrol agent against insect pests.

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Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

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