Dataset Information

Using high-resolution future climate scenarios to forecast Bromus tectorum invasion in Rocky Mountain National Park.

ABSTRACT: National Parks are hallmarks of ecosystem preservation in the United States. The introduction of alien invasive plant species threatens protection of these areas. Bromus tectorum L. (commonly called downy brome or cheatgrass), which is found in Rocky Mountain National Park (hereafter, the Park), Colorado, USA, has been implicated in early spring competition with native grasses, decreased soil nitrogen, altered nutrient and hydrologic regimes, and increased fire intensity. We estimated the potential distribution of B. tectorum in the Park based on occurrence records (n = 211), current and future climate, and distance to roads and trails. An ensemble of six future climate scenarios indicated the habitable area of B. tectorum may increase from approximately 5.5% currently to 20.4% of the Park by the year 2050. Using ordination methods we evaluated the climatic space occupied by B. tectorum in the Park and how this space may shift given future climate change. Modeling climate change at a small extent (1,076 km2) and at a fine spatial resolution (90 m) is a novel approach in species distribution modeling, and may provide inference for microclimates not captured in coarse-scale models. Maps from our models serve as high-resolution hypotheses that can be improved over time by land managers to set priorities for surveys and removal of invasive species such as B. tectorum.

SUBMITTER: West AM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4335003 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Using high-resolution future climate scenarios to forecast Bromus tectorum invasion in Rocky Mountain National Park.

West Amanda M AM Kumar Sunil S Wakie Tewodros T Brown Cynthia S CS Stohlgren Thomas J TJ Laituri Melinda M Bromberg Jim J

PloS one 20150219 2

National Parks are hallmarks of ecosystem preservation in the United States. The introduction of alien invasive plant species threatens protection of these areas. Bromus tectorum L. (commonly called downy brome or cheatgrass), which is found in Rocky Mountain National Park (hereafter, the Park), Colorado, USA, has been implicated in early spring competition with native grasses, decreased soil nitrogen, altered nutrient and hydrologic regimes, and increased fire intensity. We estimated the potent ...[more]

PMID: 25695255

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Project description:BackgroundGlobal change produces pervasive negative impacts on biodiversity worldwide. Land use change and biological invasions are two of the major drivers of global change that often coexist; however, the effects of their interaction on natural habitats have been little investigated. In particular, we aimed to analyse whether the invasion of an introduced grass (Bromus tectorum; cheatgrass) along roads verges and the disturbance level in the natural surrounding habitat interact to influence the degree of B. tectorum invasion in the latter habitats in north-western Patagonia.MethodsAlong six different roads, totalling approximately 370 km, we set two 50 m × 2 m sampling plots every 5 km (73 plots in total). One plot was placed parallel to the road (on the roadside) and the other one perpendicular to it, towards the interior of the natural surrounding habitat. In each plot, we estimated the B. tectorum plant density in 1 m2 subplots placed every 5 m. In the natural habitat, we registered the vegetation type (grassy steppe, shrub-steppe, shrubland, and wet-meadow) and the disturbance level (low, intermediate, and high). Disturbance level was visually categorized according to different signs of habitat degradation by anthropogenic use.ResultsB. tectorum density showed an exponential decay from roadsides towards the interior of natural habitats. The degree of B. tectorum invasion inside natural habitats was positively related to B. tectorum density on roadsides only when the disturbance level was low. Shrub-steppes, grassy steppes and shrublands showed similar mean density of B. tectorum. Wet-meadows had the lowest densities of B. tectorum. Intermediate and highly disturbed environments presented higher B. tectorum density than those areas with low disturbance.DiscussionOur study highlights the importance of the interaction between road verges and disturbance levels on B. tectorum invasion in natural habitats surrounding roads of north-western Patagonia, particularly evidencing its significance in the invasion onset. The importance of invasion in road verges depends on disturbance level, with better conserved environments being more resistant to invasion at low levels of B. tectorum density along road verges, but more susceptible to road verges invasion at higher levels of disturbance. All the habitats except wet-meadows were invaded at a similar degree by B. tectorum, which reflects its adaptability to multiple habitat conditions. Overall, our work showed that synergies among global change drivers impact native environments favouring the invasion of B. tectorum.

Dataset Information

Using high-resolution future climate scenarios to forecast Bromus tectorum invasion in Rocky Mountain National Park.

Publications

Using high-resolution future climate scenarios to forecast Bromus tectorum invasion in Rocky Mountain National Park.

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