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Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker.

ABSTRACT: A major issue in the widespread controversy about the legality of poker and the appropriate taxation of winnings is whether poker should be considered a game of skill or a game of chance. To inform this debate we present an analysis into the role of skill in the performance of online poker players, using a large database with hundreds of millions of player-hand observations from real money ring games at three different stakes levels. We find that players whose earlier profitability was in the top (bottom) deciles perform better (worse) and are substantially more likely to end up in the top (bottom) performance deciles of the following time period. Regression analyses of performance on historical performance and other skill-related proxies provide further evidence for persistence and predictability. Simulations point out that skill dominates chance when performance is measured over 1,500 or more hands of play.

SUBMITTER: Potter van Loon RJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4346402 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker.

Potter van Loon Rogier J D RJ van den Assem Martijn J MJ van Dolder Dennie D

PloS one 20150302 3

A major issue in the widespread controversy about the legality of poker and the appropriate taxation of winnings is whether poker should be considered a game of skill or a game of chance. To inform this debate we present an analysis into the role of skill in the performance of online poker players, using a large database with hundreds of millions of player-hand observations from real money ring games at three different stakes levels. We find that players whose earlier profitability was in the to ...[more]

PMID: 25729862

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Project description:This study aimed to identify factors that can influence show-jumping performance during top level competitions in the Western European League (2017/2018, CSI5*). The performance data of 144 riders and 222 horses were obtained from video records (FEI TV/ website). Riders with horses achieved a total of 9114 jumping-efforts over 320 obstacles including oxers (n = 142), oxers with water (n = 15), triple bars (n = 6), verticals (n = 136), verticals with water (n = 14) and walls (n = 7). Obstacles in the first round (FR) or in jump off (JO) were standing either as single (n = 6290) or as a combination of two or three fences in a row (n = 2824). The overall fault rate (dropping the pole or refusal/run-out to jump) was 7.85%. The probability of a fault increased with the rank of the fence in the course of FR (F (1, 7649) = 5.29, P < 0.0001, GzLMM; PROC GLIMMIX, SAS). The highest probability of a fault (F (5, 7649) = 2.51, P < 0.03) in FR was found on the vertical obstacle with water (0.125 ± 0.021, LSMEAN ± standard error) while the lowest was on the triple bar (0.037 ± 0.015) and wall (0.048 ± 0.020). Riders who completed more starts in previous competitions achieved a lower fault rate (F (1, 7649) = 6.17, P < 0.02) in FR as well as in JO (F (1, 931) = 7.05, P < 0.01). The probability of faults in JO decreased with a higher speed (F (1, 931) = 6.66, P < 0.01) but there was no significant correlation between the speed in JO and FR in individual horses (r = 0.26, P < 0.01). More faults were found on the fences within combinations in both rounds (FR, JO). The highest probability of faults was found on the first fence (FR 0.095 ± 0.016; JO 0.043 ± 0.008) or second fence (JO 0.055 ± 0.020) of the double combination compared to the least probability of faults on single obstacles (FR 0.057 ± 0.007, F (5, 7649) = 5.29, P < 0.0001; JO 0.100 ± 0.027, F (1, 931) = 3.39, P < 0.04). Other tested factors did not affect show-jumping performance. Some faults are still more likely and not random in a show-jumping course, therefore, the appropriate training focus can improve performance and safety in competitions.

Dataset Information

Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker.

Publications

Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker.

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