Dataset Information

Personality, Cognitive Style, Motivation, and Aptitude Predict Systematic Trends in Analytic Forecasting Behavior.

ABSTRACT: The decision sciences are increasingly challenged to advance methods for modeling analysts, accounting for both analytic strengths and weaknesses, to improve inferences taken from increasingly large and complex sources of data. We examine whether psychometric measures-personality, cognitive style, motivated cognition-predict analytic performance and whether psychometric measures are competitive with aptitude measures (i.e., SAT scores) as analyst sample selection criteria. A heterogeneous, national sample of 927 participants completed an extensive battery of psychometric measures and aptitude tests and was asked 129 geopolitical forecasting questions over the course of 1 year. Factor analysis reveals four dimensions among psychometric measures; dimensions characterized by differently motivated "top-down" cognitive styles predicted distinctive patterns in aptitude and forecasting behavior. These dimensions were not better predictors of forecasting accuracy than aptitude measures. However, multiple regression and mediation analysis reveals that these dimensions influenced forecasting accuracy primarily through bias in forecasting confidence. We also found that these facets were competitive with aptitude tests as forecast sampling criteria designed to mitigate biases in forecasting confidence while maximizing accuracy. These findings inform the understanding of individual difference dimensions at the intersection of analytic aptitude and demonstrate that they wield predictive power in applied, analytic domains.

SUBMITTER: Poore JC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4361467 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Personality, Cognitive Style, Motivation, and Aptitude Predict Systematic Trends in Analytic Forecasting Behavior.

Poore Joshua C JC Forlines Clifton L CL Miller Sarah M SM Regan John R JR Irvine John M JM

Journal of cognitive engineering and decision making 20141201 4

The decision sciences are increasingly challenged to advance methods for modeling analysts, accounting for both analytic strengths and weaknesses, to improve inferences taken from increasingly large and complex sources of data. We examine whether psychometric measures-personality, cognitive style, motivated cognition-predict analytic performance and whether psychometric measures are competitive with aptitude measures (i.e., SAT scores) as analyst sample selection criteria. A heterogeneous, natio ...[more]

PMID: 25983670

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Project description:BackgroundCases of reported tick-borne diseases in humans have increased over the past decades. Strategies informing the public about ticks, their associated diseases, and preventive measures are often highlighted as important in limiting pathogen transfer and disease. However, knowledge about the motivation for people to apply preventative measures is sparse.MethodsThe aim was to examine if Protection Motivation Theory, a model of disease prevention and health promotion, can predict the use of protective measures against ticks. Ordinal logistic regression and Chi-square tests were used on data from a cross-sectional survey with respondents from Denmark, Norway, and Sweden (n = 2658). We examined the effect of (1) the perceived seriousness of tick bites, Lyme borreliosis (LB), and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), and (2) the perceived probability of getting a tick bite, Lyme borreliosis, and tick-borne encephalitis on protection against ticks. Finally, we examined if there was an association between the use of a protective measure and the perceived efficacy of that measure.ResultsThe perceived seriousness of a tick bite and LB significantly predict who is more likely to apply protective measures for all three countries combined. The perceived seriousness of TBE did not significantly predict the level of adoption of protective measures applied by respondents. The perceived likelihood of getting a tick bite within the next 12 months and the perceived likelihood of getting LB if bitten by a tick significantly predicted the application of protective measures. However, the increases in the likelihood of protection were very small. The application of a certain type of protection was always correlated with the perceived efficacy of the same protective measure.ConclusionSome variables of PMT may be used to predict the level of adoption of protection applied against ticks and tick-borne diseases. We found that the perceived seriousness of a tick bite and LB significantly predict the level of adoption protection. The perceived likelihood of getting a tick bite or LB also significantly predicted the level of adoption of protection, although the change was very small. The results regarding TBE were less clear. Lastly, there was an association between applying a protective measure and the perceived efficacy of the same measure.

Dataset Information

Personality, Cognitive Style, Motivation, and Aptitude Predict Systematic Trends in Analytic Forecasting Behavior.

Publications

Personality, Cognitive Style, Motivation, and Aptitude Predict Systematic Trends in Analytic Forecasting Behavior.

Similar Datasets

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