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A novel approach to delayed-start analyses for demonstrating disease-modifying effects in Alzheimer's disease.

ABSTRACT: One method for demonstrating disease modification is a delayed-start design, consisting of a placebo-controlled period followed by a delayed-start period wherein all patients receive active treatment. To address methodological issues in previous delayed-start approaches, we propose a new method that is robust across conditions of drug effect, discontinuation rates, and missing data mechanisms. We propose a modeling approach and test procedure to test the hypothesis of noninferiority, comparing the treatment difference at the end of the delayed-start period with that at the end of the placebo-controlled period. We conducted simulations to identify the optimal noninferiority testing procedure to ensure the method was robust across scenarios and assumptions, and to evaluate the appropriate modeling approach for analyzing the delayed-start period. We then applied this methodology to Phase 3 solanezumab clinical trial data for mild Alzheimer's disease patients. Simulation results showed a testing procedure using a proportional noninferiority margin was robust for detecting disease-modifying effects; conditions of high and moderate discontinuations; and with various missing data mechanisms. Using all data from all randomized patients in a single model over both the placebo-controlled and delayed-start study periods demonstrated good statistical performance. In analysis of solanezumab data using this methodology, the noninferiority criterion was met, indicating the treatment difference at the end of the placebo-controlled studies was preserved at the end of the delayed-start period within a pre-defined margin. The proposed noninferiority method for delayed-start analysis controls Type I error rate well and addresses many challenges posed by previous approaches. Delayed-start studies employing the proposed analysis approach could be used to provide evidence of a disease-modifying effect. This method has been communicated with FDA and has been successfully applied to actual clinical trial data accrued from the Phase 3 clinical trials of solanezumab.

SUBMITTER: Liu-Seifert H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4363486 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A novel approach to delayed-start analyses for demonstrating disease-modifying effects in Alzheimer's disease.

Liu-Seifert Hong H Andersen Scott W SW Lipkovich Ilya I Holdridge Karen C KC Siemers Eric E

PloS one 20150317 3

One method for demonstrating disease modification is a delayed-start design, consisting of a placebo-controlled period followed by a delayed-start period wherein all patients receive active treatment. To address methodological issues in previous delayed-start approaches, we propose a new method that is robust across conditions of drug effect, discontinuation rates, and missing data mechanisms. We propose a modeling approach and test procedure to test the hypothesis of noninferiority, comparing t ...[more]

PMID: 25781335

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Project description:BackgroundIn models of dopaminergic neuronal loss, the dopamine agonist pramipexole has exhibited neuroprotective properties. The Pramipexole On Underlying Disease (PROUD) study was designed to identify whether early versus delayed pramipexole initiation has clinical and neuroimaging benefits in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD).MethodsBetween May 24, 2006, and April 22, 2009, at 98 centres, we recruited patients with PD diagnosed within 2 years and aged 30-79 years. We randomly assigned eligible patients (ratio 1:1), by a centralised, computerised randomisation schedule, to receive double-blind either placebo or pramipexole (1·5 mg a day) and followed them up for 15 months. At 9 months, or as early as 6 months if considered necessary, placebo recipients were assigned to pramipexole. In a neuroimaging substudy, striatal dopamine-transporter binding was assessed by SPECT. All patients, investigators, and independent raters were masked to study treatment. The primary endpoint was the 15-month change from baseline in total score on the unified Parkinson's disease rating scale (UPDRS). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00321854.FindingsOf 535 patients, 261 were randomly assigned to receive pramipexole and 274 to receive placebo. At 15 months (n=411), adjusted mean change in UPDRS total score showed no significant difference between early and delayed pramipexole (-0·4 points, 95% CI -2·2 to 1·4, p=0·65). 62 patients in the early pramipexole group and 61 patients in the delayed pramipexole group were included in the neuroimaging substudy, for which the adjusted mean 15-month change in striatal (123)I-FP-CIT binding was -15·1% (SE 2·1) for early and -14·6% (2·0) for delayed pramipexole (difference -0·5 percentage points, 95% CI -5·4 to 4·4, p=0·84). Overall, 180 (81%) of patients given early pramipexole and 179 (84%) patients given delayed pramipexole reported adverse events (most frequently nausea), and 22 (10%) patients in the early pramipexole group and 17 (8%) in the delayed pramipexole group had serious events, two of which (hallucinations and orthostatic hypotension) were deemed related to study drug.InterpretationBy clinical and neuroimaging measures, pramipexole showed little evidence differentiating 15-month usage from usage delayed for 6-9 months. The results do not support the hypothesis that pramipexole has disease-modifying effects.FundingBoehringer Ingelheim GmbH.

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A novel approach to delayed-start analyses for demonstrating disease-modifying effects in Alzheimer's disease.

Publications

A novel approach to delayed-start analyses for demonstrating disease-modifying effects in Alzheimer's disease.

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