Dataset Information

Projecting the spatiotemporal carbon dynamics of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem from 2006 to 2050.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Climate change and the concurrent change in wildfire events and land use comprehensively affect carbon dynamics in both spatial and temporal dimensions. The purpose of this study was to project the spatial and temporal aspects of carbon storage in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) under these changes from 2006 to 2050. We selected three emission scenarios and produced simulations with the CENTURY model using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) for each scenario. We also incorporated projected land use change and fire occurrence into the carbon accounting. RESULTS:The three GCMs showed increases in maximum and minimum temperature, but precipitation projections varied among GCMs. Total ecosystem carbon increased steadily from 7,942 gC/m2 in 2006 to 10,234 gC/m2 in 2050 with an annual rate increase of 53 gC/m2/year. About 56.6% and 27% of the increasing rate was attributed to total live carbon and total soil carbon, respectively. Net Primary Production (NPP) increased slightly from 260 gC/m2/year in 2006 to 310 gC/m2/year in 2050 with an annual rate increase of 1.22 gC/m2/year. Forest clear-cutting and fires resulted in direct carbon removal; however, the rate was low at 2.44 gC/m2/year during 2006-2050. The area of clear-cutting and wildfires in the GYE would account for 10.87% of total forested area during 2006-2050, but the predictive simulations demonstrated different spatial distributions in national forests and national parks. CONCLUSIONS:The GYE is a carbon sink during 2006-2050. The capability of vegetation is almost double that of soil in terms of sequestering extra carbon. Clear-cutting and wildfires in GYE will affect 10.87% of total forested area, but direct carbon removal from clear-cutting and fires is 109.6 gC/m2, which accounts for only 1.2% of the mean ecosystem carbon level of 9,056 gC/m2, and thus is not significant.

SUBMITTER: Huang S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4371818 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Projecting the spatiotemporal carbon dynamics of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem from 2006 to 2050.

Huang Shengli S Liu Shuguang S Liu Jinxun J Dahal Devendra D Young Claudia C Davis Brian B Sohl Terry L TL Hawbaker Todd J TJ Sleeter Ben B Zhu Zhiliang Z

Carbon balance and management 20150319

<h4>Background</h4>Climate change and the concurrent change in wildfire events and land use comprehensively affect carbon dynamics in both spatial and temporal dimensions. The purpose of this study was to project the spatial and temporal aspects of carbon storage in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) under these changes from 2006 to 2050. We selected three emission scenarios and produced simulations with the CENTURY model using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) for each scenario. We a ...[more]

PMID: 25821513

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Project description:Wildlife migrations provide important ecosystem services, but they are declining. Within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), some elk Cervus canadensis herds are losing migratory tendencies, which may increase spatiotemporal overlap between elk and livestock (domestic bison Bison bison and cattle Bos taurus), potentially exacerbating pathogen transmission risk. We combined disease, movement, demographic and environmental data from eight elk herds in the GYE to examine the differential risk of brucellosis transmission (through aborted foetuses) from migrant and resident elk to livestock. For both migrants and residents, we found that transmission risk from elk to livestock occurred almost exclusively on private ranchlands as opposed to state or federal grazing allotments. Weather variability affected the estimated distribution of spillover risk from migrant elk to livestock, with a 7%-12% increase in migrant abortions on private ranchlands during years with heavier snowfall. In contrast, weather variability did not affect spillover risk from resident elk. Migrant elk were responsible for the majority (68%) of disease spillover risk to livestock because they occurred in greater numbers than resident elk. On a per-capita basis, however, our analyses suggested that resident elk disproportionately contributed to spillover risk. In five of seven herds, we estimated that the per-capita spillover risk was greater from residents than from migrants. Averaged across herds, an individual resident elk was 23% more likely than an individual migrant elk to abort on private ranchlands. Our results demonstrate links between migration behaviour, spillover risk and environmental variability, and highlight the utility of integrating models of pathogen transmission and host movement to generate new insights about the role of migration in disease spillover risk. Furthermore, they add to the accumulating body of evidence across taxa that suggests that migrants and residents should be considered separately during investigations of wildlife disease ecology. Finally, our findings have applied implications for elk and brucellosis in the GYE. They suggest that managers should prioritize actions that maintain spatial separation of elk and livestock on private ranchlands during years when snowpack persists into the risk period.

Project description:As technology has improved, our ability to study cryptic animal behavior has increased. Bed site selection is one such example. Among prey species, bed site selection provides thermoregulatory benefits and mitigates predation risk, and may directly influence survival. We conducted research to test whether a subordinate carnivore also selected beds with similar characteristics in an ecosystem supporting a multi-species guild of competing predators. We employed a model comparison approach in which we tested whether cougar (Puma concolor) bed site attributes supported the thermoregulatory versus the predator avoidance hypotheses, or exhibited characteristics supporting both hypotheses. Between 2012-2016, we investigated 599 cougar bed sites in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and examined attributes at two scales: the landscape (second-order, n = 599) and the microsite (fourth order, n = 140). At the landscape scale, cougars selected bed sites in winter that supported both the thermoregulatory and predator avoidance hypotheses: bed sites were on steeper slopes but at lower elevations, closer to the forest edge, away from sagebrush and meadow habitat types, and on southern, eastern, and western-facing slopes. In the summer, bed attributes supported the predator avoidance hypothesis over the thermoregulation hypothesis: beds were closer to forest edges, away from sagebrush and meadow habitat classes, and on steeper slopes. At the microsite scale, cougar bed attributes in both the winter and summer supported both the predator avoidance and thermoregulatory hypotheses: they selected bed sites with high canopy cover, high vegetative concealment, and in a rugged habitat class characterized by cliff bands and talus fields. We found that just like prey species, a subordinate predator selected bed sites that facilitated both thermoregulatory and anti-predator functions. In conclusion, we believe that measuring bed site attributes may provide a novel means of measuring the use of refugia by subordinate predators, and ultimately provide new insights into the habitat requirements and energetics of subordinate carnivores.

Dataset Information

Projecting the spatiotemporal carbon dynamics of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem from 2006 to 2050.

Publications

Projecting the spatiotemporal carbon dynamics of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem from 2006 to 2050.

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