Dataset Information

Modeling the potential effects of new tobacco products and policies: a dynamic population model for multiple product use and harm.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products.

Methods and findings

We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors.

Conclusion

Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.

SUBMITTER: Vugrin ED

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4376806 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Modeling the potential effects of new tobacco products and policies: a dynamic population model for multiple product use and harm.

Vugrin Eric D ED Rostron Brian L BL Verzi Stephen J SJ Brodsky Nancy S NS Brown Theresa J TJ Choiniere Conrad J CJ Coleman Blair N BN Paredes Antonio A Apelberg Benjamin J BJ

PloS one 20150327 3

<h4>Background</h4>Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition beha ...[more]

PMID: 25815840

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Project description:Understanding which tobacco products adolescents use first can lead to insights for tobacco prevention interventions and policies. We used cross-sectional data from high school students who reported ever using a tobacco product from the 2017 North Carolina Youth Tobacco Survey (n = 1,053). In multivariable regressions, we examined how demographic and psychosocial factors were associated with adolescents' first product tried and how first product tried was associated with current tobacco use (i.e., no use, use of a single product, use of multiple products) and frequency of tobacco use. Cigarettes (34.8%) and e-cigarettes (33.7%) were the most frequently reported first products tried, followed by cigars (15.6%), smokeless tobacco (10.7%), waterpipe (4.0%), and other tobacco products (i.e., pipe tobacco or some other tobacco product) (1.2%). Demographic differences in adolescents' first product tried existed, with Black adolescents having higher odds of initiating tobacco use via cigars (aOR: 6.17, 95% CI: 3.75, 10.14). Adolescents who initiated tobacco use via cigars (aOR: 2.33, 95% CI: 1.31, 4.13) or smokeless tobacco (aOR: 2.45, 95% CI: 1.18, 5.04) had higher odds of being a multiple current tobacco product user, whereas adolescents who initiated tobacco use via e-cigarettes (aOR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.34, 0.93) had lower odds of being a multiple current tobacco product user. Additionally, adolescents who initiated tobacco use via smokeless tobacco had higher odds of currently using at least one tobacco product frequently (aOR: 1.90, 95% CI: 1.04, 3.48), while adolescents who initiated tobacco use via e-cigarettes had lower odds of currently using at least one tobacco product frequently (aOR: 0.40, 95% CI: 0.23, 0.70). These findings suggest that most adolescents reported initiating tobacco use via cigarettes or e-cigarettes and that trying certain products first (e.g., cigars, smokeless tobacco) was associated with higher odds of multiple current tobacco product use.

Project description:ImportanceMultiple nicotine product use (MNPU) among youths is a significant public health concern. Much remains unknown about the patterns of MNPU in youths, including how socioecological factors influence trajectories of MNPU, which may inform targeted prevention.ObjectiveTo identify longitudinal trajectories of MNPU and characterize them according to socioecological factors associated with tobacco use.Design, setting, and participantsThis US-based longitudinal survey study used data from waves 1 (September 12, 2013, to December 14, 2014) through 4 (December 1, 2016, to January 3, 2018) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) study. Participants included 10 086 youths (aged 12-17 years) at wave 1, with follow-up data at waves 2 to 4 (assessed approximately 1 year apart) in the youth or adult data sets. Data were analyzed from January 15, 2020, to December 22, 2021.ExposuresSocioecological factors at wave 1.Main outcomes and measuresOutcome variables were days of use in the past 30 days of 4 products: cigarettes, e-cigarettes, cigars, and smokeless tobacco. Factors associated with use of the nicotine products that were collected at wave 1 included sociodemographic factors, internalizing and externalizing symptoms, living with a tobacco user, rules about tobacco use at home, conversations with parents about not using tobacco, tobacco accessibility, and exposure to advertising. Multitrajectory latent class growth analysis was used to identify distinct subgroups with similar patterns of use over time. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to investigate factors associated with class membership. Weights were applied to all data except frequencies to account for the complex survey design.ResultsOf the 10 086 youths included in the analysis, 5142 (51.2%) self-identified as male; 4792 (54.7%) were non-Hispanic White; and 5315 (50.6%) were aged 12 to 14 years. Six latent trajectory classes were identified: nonuse (8056 [78.2%]), experimentation (908 [9.8%]), increasing e-cigarette/cigarette use (359 [4.0%]), increasing cigarette/cigar use (320 [3.3%]), decreasing cigarette/e-cigarette/cigar use (302 [3.2%]), and stable smokeless tobacco/cigarette use (141 [1.6%]). Compared with the nonuse class, being older (odds ratio [OR] range, 2.54 [95% CI, 1.94-3.32] to 9.49 [95% CI, 6.03-14.93]), being female (OR range, 0.06 [95% CI, 0.03-0.14] to 0.71 [95% CI, 0.53-0.94]), living with a tobacco user (OR range, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.11-1.83] to 4.94 [95% CI, 3.43-7.13]), and having relaxed rules about noncombustible tobacco product use at home (OR range, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.02-1.94] to 3.42 [95% CI, 1.74-6.75]) were associated with classification in all the use classes. A high degree of difficulty accessing tobacco was associated with lower odds of membership in the increasing cigarette/cigar use vs nonuse classes (OR, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.40-0.98]).Conclusions and relevanceThese survey results highlight the heterogeneity of longitudinal pathways of MNPU in US youths and suggest directions for future prevention and regulatory efforts directed at tobacco use behaviors in this population.

Dataset Information

Modeling the potential effects of new tobacco products and policies: a dynamic population model for multiple product use and harm.

Background

Methods and findings

Conclusion

Publications

Modeling the potential effects of new tobacco products and policies: a dynamic population model for multiple product use and harm.

Similar Datasets

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