Dataset Information

Changes in rodent abundance and weather conditions potentially drive hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome outbreaks in Xi'an, China, 2005-2012.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Increased risks for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) caused by Hantaan virus have been observed since 2005, in Xi'an, China. Despite increased vigilance and preparedness, HFRS outbreaks in 2010, 2011, and 2012 were larger than ever, with a total of 3,938 confirmed HFRS cases and 88 deaths in 2010 and 2011.

Methods and findings

Data on HFRS cases and weather were collected monthly from 2005 to 2012, along with active rodent monitoring. Wavelet analyses were performed to assess the temporal relationship between HFRS incidence, rodent density and climatic factors over the study period. Results showed that HFRS cases correlated to rodent density, rainfall, and temperature with 2, 3 and 4-month lags, respectively. Using a Bayesian time-series Poisson adjusted model, we fitted the HFRS outbreaks among humans for risk assessment in Xi'an. The best models included seasonality, autocorrelation, rodent density 2 months previously, and rainfall 2 to 3 months previously. Our models well reflected the epidemic characteristics by one step ahead prediction, out-of-sample.

Conclusions

In addition to a strong seasonal pattern, HFRS incidence was correlated with rodent density and rainfall, indicating that they potentially drive the HFRS outbreaks. Future work should aim to determine the mechanism underlying the seasonal pattern and autocorrelation. However, this model can be useful in risk management to provide early warning of potential outbreaks of this disease.

SUBMITTER: Tian HY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4378853 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Changes in rodent abundance and weather conditions potentially drive hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome outbreaks in Xi'an, China, 2005-2012.

Tian Huai-Yu HY Yu Peng-Bo PB Luis Angela D AD Bi Peng P Cazelles Bernard B Laine Marko M Huang Shan-Qian SQ Ma Chao-Feng CF Zhou Sen S Wei Jing J Li Shen S Lu Xiao-Ling XL Qu Jian-Hui JH Dong Jian-Hua JH Tong Shi-Lu SL Wang Jing-Jun JJ Grenfell Bryan B Xu Bing B

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20150330 3

<h4>Background</h4>Increased risks for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) caused by Hantaan virus have been observed since 2005, in Xi'an, China. Despite increased vigilance and preparedness, HFRS outbreaks in 2010, 2011, and 2012 were larger than ever, with a total of 3,938 confirmed HFRS cases and 88 deaths in 2010 and 2011.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>Data on HFRS cases and weather were collected monthly from 2005 to 2012, along with active rodent monitoring. Wavelet analyses were p ...[more]

PMID: 25822936

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Although anthrax is endemic in Lesotho, limited information is available on the patterns of the disease among livestock animals. This study investigated temporal patterns of anthrax outbreaks and cases among livestock animals in Lesotho. METHODS:Secondary data of anthrax outbreaks reported to the Department of Livestock Services between January 2005 and December 2016 was used for this study. Proportions of anthrax outbreaks and cases, and their corresponding 95% confidence interval were calculated and compared across year, season, month and region using the Chi-square or Fisher's exact test. The autoregression model was used to evaluate annual trends of anthrax outbreaks and cases. RESULTS:A total of 38 outbreaks were reported in the Lowlands districts of Lesotho. District was significantly (p<0.0001) associated with outbreaks and cases, with the highest proportions of outbreaks (52.6%) and cases (70.2%) reported in Maseru. Significantly (p = 0.0004) higher proportions of anthrax outbreaks (78.9%) and cases (95.1%) were reported in the rainy-hot season compared to the dry-cold season. Five hundred and twenty-six (n = 526) anthrax cases were reported with significantly (p<0.0001) higher proportion of cases (70.3%) in cattle compared to other species. Higher proportion of anthrax cases (35.9%) were reported in 2008 and during the months of February (30.8%) and April (30.2%). There was no significant annual trend in anthrax outbreaks (r = 0.0282; p = 0.6213) and cases (r = 0.0873; p = 0.3512) over the study period. CONCLUSION:The burden of anthrax in Lesotho is significantly higher in cattle. Anthrax outbreaks occur only in the lowland districts and follow a seasonal pattern. Therefore, more effort should be targeted at curbing the disease in cattle and the lowlands districts. Furthermore, there should be heightened monitoring of cases in the rainy season to ensure that resultant carcasses are disposed of appropriately to minimise future outbreaks.

Dataset Information

Changes in rodent abundance and weather conditions potentially drive hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome outbreaks in Xi'an, China, 2005-2012.

Background

Methods and findings

Conclusions

Publications

Changes in rodent abundance and weather conditions potentially drive hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome outbreaks in Xi'an, China, 2005-2012.

Similar Datasets

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