Dataset Information

Changes in rodent abundance and weather conditions potentially drive hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome outbreaks in Xi'an, China, 2005-2012.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Increased risks for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) caused by Hantaan virus have been observed since 2005, in Xi'an, China. Despite increased vigilance and preparedness, HFRS outbreaks in 2010, 2011, and 2012 were larger than ever, with a total of 3,938 confirmed HFRS cases and 88 deaths in 2010 and 2011.

Methods and findings

Data on HFRS cases and weather were collected monthly from 2005 to 2012, along with active rodent monitoring. Wavelet analyses were performed to assess the temporal relationship between HFRS incidence, rodent density and climatic factors over the study period. Results showed that HFRS cases correlated to rodent density, rainfall, and temperature with 2, 3 and 4-month lags, respectively. Using a Bayesian time-series Poisson adjusted model, we fitted the HFRS outbreaks among humans for risk assessment in Xi'an. The best models included seasonality, autocorrelation, rodent density 2 months previously, and rainfall 2 to 3 months previously. Our models well reflected the epidemic characteristics by one step ahead prediction, out-of-sample.

Conclusions

In addition to a strong seasonal pattern, HFRS incidence was correlated with rodent density and rainfall, indicating that they potentially drive the HFRS outbreaks. Future work should aim to determine the mechanism underlying the seasonal pattern and autocorrelation. However, this model can be useful in risk management to provide early warning of potential outbreaks of this disease.

SUBMITTER: Tian HY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4378853 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Changes in rodent abundance and weather conditions potentially drive hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome outbreaks in Xi'an, China, 2005-2012.

Tian Huai-Yu HY Yu Peng-Bo PB Luis Angela D AD Bi Peng P Cazelles Bernard B Laine Marko M Huang Shan-Qian SQ Ma Chao-Feng CF Zhou Sen S Wei Jing J Li Shen S Lu Xiao-Ling XL Qu Jian-Hui JH Dong Jian-Hua JH Tong Shi-Lu SL Wang Jing-Jun JJ Grenfell Bryan B Xu Bing B

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20150330 3

<h4>Background</h4>Increased risks for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) caused by Hantaan virus have been observed since 2005, in Xi'an, China. Despite increased vigilance and preparedness, HFRS outbreaks in 2010, 2011, and 2012 were larger than ever, with a total of 3,938 confirmed HFRS cases and 88 deaths in 2010 and 2011.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>Data on HFRS cases and weather were collected monthly from 2005 to 2012, along with active rodent monitoring. Wavelet analyses were p ...[more]

PMID: 25822936

Similar Datasets

Project description:ObjectiveTwo pertussis outbreaks occurred in Olmsted County, Minnesota, during 2004-2005 and 2012 (5-10 times higher than other years), with significantly higher incidence than for the State. We aimed to assess whether there were similar spatio-temporal patterns between the two outbreaks.SettingOlmsted County, Minnesota, USA PARTICIPANTS: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study of all Olmsted County residents during the 2004-2005 and 2012 outbreaks, including laboratory-positive pertussis cases.Primary outcome measureFor each outbreak, we estimated (1) age-specific incidence rate using laboratory-positive pertussis cases (numerator) and the Rochester Epidemiology Project Census (denominator), a medical record-linkage system for virtually all Olmsted County residents, and (2) pertussis case density using kernel density estimation to identify areas with high case density. To account for population size, we calculated relative difference of observed density and expected density based on age-specific incidence.ResultsWe identified 157 and 195 geocoded cases in 2004-2005 and 2012, respectively. Incidence was the highest among adolescents (ages 11 to <14 years) for both outbreaks (9.6 and 7.9 per 1000). The 2004-2005 pertussis outbreak had higher incidence in winter (52% of cases) versus summer in 2012 (53%). We identified a consistent area with higher incidence at the beginning (ie, first quartile) of two outbreaks, but it was inconsistent for later quartiles. The relative difference maps for the two outbreaks suggest a greater role of neighbourhood population size in 2012 compared with 2004-2005.ConclusionsComparing spatio-temporal patterns between two pertussis outbreaks identified a consistent geographical area with higher incidence of pertussis at the beginning of outbreaks in this community. This finding can be tested in future outbreaks, and, if confirmed, can be used for identifying epidemiological risk factors clustered in such areas for geographically targeted intervention.

Dataset Information

Changes in rodent abundance and weather conditions potentially drive hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome outbreaks in Xi'an, China, 2005-2012.

Background

Methods and findings

Conclusions

Publications

Changes in rodent abundance and weather conditions potentially drive hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome outbreaks in Xi'an, China, 2005-2012.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets