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Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature.

ABSTRACT: Tropical cyclone rainfall rates have been projected to increase in a warmer climate. The area coverage of tropical cyclones influences their impact on human lives, yet little is known about how tropical cyclone rainfall area will change in the future. Here, using satellite data and global atmospheric model simulations, we show that tropical cyclone rainfall area is controlled primarily by its environmental sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the tropical mean SST (that is, the relative SST), while rainfall rate increases with increasing absolute SST. Our result is consistent with previous numerical simulations that indicated tight relationships between tropical cyclone size and mid-tropospheric relative humidity. Global statistics of tropical cyclone rainfall area are not expected to change markedly under a warmer climate provided that SST change is relatively uniform, implying that increases in total rainfall will be confined to similar size domains with higher rainfall rates.

SUBMITTER: Lin Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4382685 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature.

Lin Yanluan Y Zhao Ming M Zhang Minghua M

Nature communications 20150312

Tropical cyclone rainfall rates have been projected to increase in a warmer climate. The area coverage of tropical cyclones influences their impact on human lives, yet little is known about how tropical cyclone rainfall area will change in the future. Here, using satellite data and global atmospheric model simulations, we show that tropical cyclone rainfall area is controlled primarily by its environmental sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the tropical mean SST (that is, the relative SST ...[more]

PMID: 25761457

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Project description:Precipitation and atmospheric circulation are the coupled processes through which tropical ocean surface temperatures drive global weather and climate1-5. Local sea surface warming tends to increase precipitation, but this local control is difficult to disentangle from remote effects of conditions elsewhere. As an example of such a remote effect, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the equatorial Pacific Ocean alter precipitation across the tropics. Atmospheric circulations associated with tropical precipitation are predominantly deep, extending up to the tropopause. Shallow atmospheric circulations6-8 affecting the lower troposphere also occur, but the importance of their interaction with precipitation is unclear. Uncertainty in precipitation observations9,10 and limited observations of shallow circulations11 further obstruct our understanding of the ocean's influence on weather and climate. Despite decades of research, persistent biases remain in many numerical model simulations12-18, including excessively wide tropical rainbands14,18, the 'double-intertropical convergence zone problem'12,16,17 and too-weak responses to ENSO15. These biases demonstrate gaps in our understanding, reducing confidence in forecasts and projections. Here we use observations to show that seasonal tropical precipitation has a high sensitivity to local sea surface temperature. Our best observational estimate is an 80 per cent change in precipitation for every gram per kilogram change in the saturation specific humidity (itself a function of the sea surface temperature). This observed sensitivity is higher than in 43 of the 47 climate models studied, and is associated with strong shallow circulations. Models with more realistic (closer to 80%) sensitivity have smaller biases across a wide range of metrics. Our results apply to both temporal and spatial variation, over regions where climatological precipitation is about one millimetre per day or more. Our analyses of multiple independent observations, physical constraints and model data underpin these findings. The spread in model behaviour is further linked to differences in shallow convection, thus providing a focus for accelerated research to improve seasonal forecasts through multidecadal climate projections.

Project description:Under a changing climate, projections estimate that over the next thirty years, extreme Tropical Cyclones (TCs) will increase in frequency, with two to three times more Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic basin between 20°N and 40°N. In recent years, the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean basins have experienced several extreme TCs, resulting in extensive human, ecological, and economic damage [1], [2], [3]. To improve understanding of TCs and their potential impacts in the face of climate change, physically based understanding of past climate and modern TC dynamics is necessary. Despite the well-known Atlantic hurricane season, surface observations of the isotopic evolution of TC's moisture and the propagation of isotopically distinct pulses across surface and subsurface water reservoirs are lacking. In this data article, we provide novel high frequency sampling of surface rainfall isotope compositions (δ18O, δ2H, and d-excess in ‰) for Hurricanes Otto (Costa Rica, 2016), Nate (Costa Rica, 2017), Irma (Cuba and The Bahamas, 2017), Maria (Cuba and The Bahamas, 2017), and Dorian (The Bahamas, 2019). These five TCs were characterized by unprecedented impacts during continental and maritime landfalls and passages. In total, 161 surface rainfall samples were collected in passive devices [4] with event-based and daily frequencies, resulting in the first surface isotopic tempestology anatomy across the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean basins to date. Derived rainfall from TCs often results in large input amounts of isotopically distinct water over an area from few hours to several days, and therefore this unique isotope composition is propagated through surface and shallow subsurface reservoirs. Our data also include spring (N=338) and surface water (N=334) isotope compositions following the impact of Hurricane Otto and Tropical Storm Nate in central Costa Rica. As this region is well-known for its diverse rainfall dynamics and as a climate change 'hot spot' [5], [6], [7], our data provide an opportunity to improve and complement modern and past climate interpretations often derived from satellite products and calcite-δ18O paleoclimatic archives in light of climatic forcing, TC rainfall amounts and recharge rates, and the hypothesized climatic-induced decline of past Mesoamerican civilizations.

Dataset Information

Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature.

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Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature.

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