Participation dynamics in population-based longitudinal HIV surveillance in rural South Africa.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Larmarange J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4395370 | biostudies-literature | 2015
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Participation dynamics in population-based longitudinal HIV surveillance in rural South Africa.
Larmarange Joseph J Mossong Joël J Bärnighausen Till T Newell Marie Louise ML
PloS one 20150413 4
Population-based HIV surveillance is crucial to inform understanding of the HIV pandemic and evaluate HIV interventions, but little is known about longitudinal participation patterns in such settings. We investigated the dynamics of longitudinal participation patterns in a high HIV prevalence surveillance setting in rural South Africa between 2003 and 2012, taking into account demographic dynamics. At any given survey round, 22,708 to 30,495 persons were eligible. Although the yearly participati ...[more]
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Project description:Background:The prevalence of detectable viremia has previously been used to infer the potential for ongoing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. To date, no study has evaluated the longitudinal change in the prevalence of detectable viremia within the HIV-positive community (PDV+) and the entire population (PDVP) using data from a sub-Saharan African setting. Methods:In 2011, 2013, and 2014, we obtained 6752 HIV-positive and 15415 HIV-negative test results from a population-based surveillance system in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa. We quantified the PDV+ as the proportion of the 6752 HIV-positive results with a viral load >1550 copies/mL and the PDVP as the proportion of the 6752 HIV-positive and 15415 HIV-negative results with a viral load >1550 copies/mL. Results:Between 2011 and 2014, the PDV+ decreased by 16.5 percentage points (pp) for women (from 71.8% to 55.3%) and 10.6 pp for men (from 77.8% to 67.2%). However, a steady rise in the overall HIV prevalence, from 26.7% to 32.4%, offset the declines in the PDV+ for both sexes. For women, the PDVP decreased by only 2.1 pp, from 21.3% to 19.2%, but for men, the PDVP actually increased by 1.6 pp, from 14.6% to 16.2%, over the survey period. Conclusions:The PDV+, which is currently being tracked under the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets, may not be an accurate indicator of the potential for ongoing HIV transmission. There is a critical need for countries to monitor and report the prevalence of detectable viremia among all adults, irrespective of HIV status.
| S-EPMC5889002 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To present and compare population-based and antenatal-care (ANC) sentinel surveillance HIV prevalence estimates among women in a rural South African population where both provision of ANC services and family planning is prevalent and fertility is declining. With a need, in such settings, to understand how to appropriately adjust ANC sentinel surveillance estimates to represent HIV prevalence in general populations, and with evidence of possible biases inherent to both surveillance systems, we explore differences between the two systems. There is particular emphasis on unrepresentative selection of ANC clinics and unrepresentative testing in the population.HIV sero-prevalence amongst blood samples collected from women consenting to test during the 2005 annual longitudinal population-based serological survey was compared to anonymous unlinked HIV sero-prevalence amongst women attending antenatal care (ANC) first visits in six clinics (January to May 2005). Both surveillance systems were conducted as part of the Africa Centre Demographic Information System.Population-based HIV prevalence estimates for all women (25.2%) and pregnant women (23.7%) were significantly lower than that for ANC attendees (37.7%). A large proportion of women attending urban or peri-urban clinics would be predicted to be resident within rural areas. Although overall estimates remained significantly different, presenting and standardising estimates by age and location (clinic for ANC-based estimates and individual-residence for population-based estimates) made some group-specific estimates from the two surveillance systems more predictive of one another.It is likely that where ANC coverage and contraceptive use is widespread and fertility is low, population-based surveillance under-estimates HIV prevalence due to unrepresentative testing by age, residence and also probably by HIV status, and that ANC sentinel surveillance over-estimates prevalence due to selection bias in terms of age of sexual debut and contraceptive use. The results presented highlight the importance of accounting for unrepresentative testing, particularly by individual residence and age, through system design and statistical analyses.
| S-EPMC1948890 | biostudies-other
Project description:As more human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients access combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), higher proportions of newly infected patients may be infected with drug-resistant viruses. Regular surveillance of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) is required in southern Africa where high rates of transmission persist despite rapid expansion of ART. Dried blood spot samples from cART-naive participants from two rounds of an annual population-based HIV surveillance program in rural KwaZulu-Natal were tested for HIV RNA, and samples with HIV RNA >10,000 copies/ml were genotyped for drug resistance. The 2009 surveillance of drug resistance mutation (SDRM) list was used for drug resistance interpretation. The data were added to previously published data from the same program, and the ?(2) test for trend was used to test for trend in estimated prevalence of any TDR. Seven hundred and one participants' data were analyzed: 67 (2010), 381 (2011), and 253 (2012). No TDR was detected in 2010. Years 2011 and 2012 had 18 participants with SDRMs 4.7% and 7.1%, respectively (p?=?.02, ?(2) test for trend). The nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor mutation, K103N, was the most common mutation, occurring in 27 (3.8%) of the participants, while nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) SDRMs were detected in 10 (1.4%) of the participants, of whom eight had only a single NRTI SDRM. The increase in levels of drug resistance observed in this population could be a signal of increasing transmission of drug-resistant HIV. Thus, continued surveillance is critical to inform public health policies around HIV treatment and prevention.
| S-EPMC4971422 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn South Africa, within-country migration is common. Mobility affects many of the factors in the pathway for entry to or retention in care among people living with HIV. We characterized the patterns of migration (i.e., change in residency) among peripartum women from rural South Africa and their association with first-year postpartum mortality.Methods and findingsAll pregnant women aged ≥15 years were followed-up during pregnancy and the first year postpartum in a population-based longitudinal demographic and HIV surveillance program in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, from 2000 to 2016. During the household surveys (every 4-6 months), each household head was interviewed to record demographic components of the household, including composition, migration, and mortality. External migration was defined as moving (i.e., change in residency) into or out of the study area. For women of reproductive age, detailed information on new pregnancy and birth was recorded. Maternal death was ascertained via verbal autopsy and HIV status at delivery via annual HIV surveys. We fitted mixed-effects Cox regression models adjusting for multiple pregnancies per individual. Overall, 19,334 women had 30,291 pregnancies: 3,339 were HIV-positive, 10,958 were HIV-negative, and 15,994 had unknown HIV status at delivery. The median age was 24 (interquartile range: 20-30) years. During pregnancy and the first year postpartum, 64% (n = 19,344) and 13% (n = 3,994) did not migrate and resided within and outside the surveillance area, respectively. Of the 23% who had externally migrated at least once, 39% delivered outside the surveillance area. Overall, the mortality rate was 5.8 per 1,000 person-years (or 831 deaths per 100,000 live births) in the first year postpartum. The major causes of deaths were AIDS- or tuberculosis-related conditions both within 42 days of delivery (53%) and during the first year postpartum (62%). In this study, we observed that HIV-positive peripartum women who externally migrated and delivered outside the surveillance area had a hazard of mortality more than two times greater (hazard ratio = 2.74; 95% confidence interval 1.01-7.40, p-value = 0.047)-after adjusting for age, time period (before or after 2010), and sociodemographic status-compared to that of HIV-positive women who continuously resided within the surveillance area. Study limitations include lack of data on access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) care and social or clinical context at the destinations among mobile participants, which could lead to unmeasured confounding. Further information on how mobile postpartum women access and remain in care would be instructive.ConclusionsIn this study, we found that a substantial portion of peripartum women moved within the country around the time of delivery and experienced a significantly higher risk of mortality. Despite the scale-up of universal ART and declining trends in maternal mortality, there is an urgent need to derive a greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying this finding and to develop targeted interventions for mobile HIV-positive peripartum women.
| S-EPMC7108693 | biostudies-literature
Project description:INTRODUCTION:High levels of HIV seroconcordance at the population level reduce the potential for effective HIV transmission. However, the level of HIV seroconcordance is largely unknown among heterosexual couples in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to quantify the population level HIV seroconcordance in stable heterosexual couples in rural South Africa. METHODS:We followed adults (≥15 years old) using a population-based, longitudinal and open surveillance system in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, from 2003 to 2016. Sexual partnerships and HIV status were confirmed via household surveys and annual HIV surveillance. We calculated the proportions of HIV seroconcordance and serodiscordance in stable sexual partnerships and compared them to the expected proportions under the assumption of random mixing using individual-based microsimulation models. Among unpartnered individuals, we estimated the incidence rates and hazard of sexual partnership formation with HIV-positive or HIV-negative partners by participants' own time-varying HIV status. Competing risks survival regressions were fitted adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical factors. We also calculated Newman's assortativity coefficients. RESULTS:A total of 18,341 HIV-negative and 11,361 HIV-positive individuals contributed 154,469 person-years (PY) of follow-up. Overall, 28% of the participants were in stable sexual partnerships. Of the 677 newly formed stable sexual partnerships, 7.7% (95% CI: 5.8 to 10.0) were HIV-positive seroconcordant (i.e. both individuals in the partnership were HIV-positive), which was three times higher than the expected proportion (2.3%) in microsimulation models based on random mixing. The incidence rates of sexual partnership formation were 0.54/1000PY with HIV-positive, 1.12/1000PY with HIV-negative and 2.65/1000PY with unknown serostatus partners. HIV-positive individuals had 2.39 (95% CI: 1.43 to 3.99) times higher hazard of forming a sexual partnership with an HIV-positive partner than did HIV-negative individuals after adjusting for age, opposite-sex HIV prevalence (by 5-years age groups), HIV prevalence in the surrounding community, ART coverage and other sociodemographic factors. Similarly, forming a sexual partnership with an HIV-negative partner was 1.47 (95% CI: 1.01 to 2.14) times higher in HIV-negative individuals in the adjusted model. Newman's coefficient also showed that assortativity by participant and partner HIV status was moderate (r = 0.35). CONCLUSIONS:A high degree of population level HIV seroconcordance (both positive and negative) was observed at the time of forming new sexual partnerships. Understanding factors driving these patterns may help the development of strategies to bring the HIV epidemic under control.
| S-EPMC6949466 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo determine the proportion of under-5 deaths that occurred at home in rural South Africa, whether care was sought prior to death, and determinants of home deaths amongst those who sought care.MethodsVerbal autopsy data were used for all under-5 deaths, 2000-2015, in two health and demographic surveillance system sites. Trends in place of death and care-seeking were assessed. Associations between sociodemographic factors and home death despite seeking care were assessed by multivariate logistic regressions.ResultsThere were 3760 under-5 deaths; 1954 (53%) at home and 1510 (41%) in health facilities. Eighty-four per cent of children who died at home accessed healthcare during their final illness. Amongst neonates for whom care was sought, those who were 8-27 days old were more likely to die at home than those who were 0-7 days old (OR = 5.56, 95%CI 2.69-11.55, P < 0.001). Factors associated with home death of infants and young children despite seeking care included low maternal education (OR = 1.71, 95%CI 1.31-2.24, P < 0.001), larger household size (OR = 1.56, 95%CI 1.17-2.06, P = 0.002), traditional medicine use (OR = 2.33, 95%CI 1.75-3.12, P < 0.001) and Mozambican descent (OR = 1.47, 95%CI 1.06-2.03, P = 0.020). The proportion of HIV-related deaths that occurred at home fell from 60% in 2008-2011 to 39% in 2012-2015 ( χ2 = 13.86, P < 0.001).ConclusionMore than half of under-5 deaths in rural South Africa occurred at home although healthcare was sought for most children, highlighting that home deaths are not simply a function of poor care-seeking. Interventions should target high-risk sociodemographic groups.
| S-EPMC7612936 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn southern Africa, a substantial health transition is underway, with the heavy burden of chronic infectious illness (HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis) paralleled by the growing threat of non-communicable diseases. We investigated the extent and nature of this health transition and considered the implications for primary health care.MethodsHealth and sociodemographic surveillance started in the Agincourt subdistrict, rural South Africa, in 1992. In a population of 70 000, deaths (n=6153) were rigorously monitored with a validated verbal autopsy instrument to establish probable cause. We used age-standardised analyses to investigate the dynamics of the mortality transition by comparing the period 2002-05 with 1992-94.FindingsMortality from chronic non-communicable disease ranked highest in adults aged 50 years and older in 1992-94 (41% of deaths [123/298]), whereas acute diarrhoea and malnutrition accounted for 37% of deaths (59/158) in children younger than 5 years. Since then, all-cause mortality increased substantially (risk ratio 1.87 [95% CI 1.73-2.03]; p<0.0001) because of a six-fold rise in deaths from infectious disease affecting most age and sex groups (5.98 [4.85-7.38]; p<0.0001), and a modest increase in deaths from non-communicable disease (1.15 [0.99-1.33]; p=0.066). The change in female risk of death from HIV and tuberculosis (15.06 [8.88-27.76]; p<0.0001) was almost double that of the change in male risk (8.13 [5.55-12.36]; p<0.0001). The burden of disorders requiring chronic care increased disproportionately compared with that requiring acute care (2.63 [2.30-3.01]; p<0.0001 vs 1.31 [1.12-1.55]; p=0.0003).InterpretationMortality from non-communicable disease remains prominent despite the sustained increase in deaths from chronic infectious disease. The implications for primary health-care systems are substantial, with integrated chronic care based on scaled-up delivery of antiretroviral therapy needed to address this expanding burden.
| S-EPMC2602585 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To identify the unmet needs for HIV prevention among older adults in rural South Africa. METHODS:We analyzed data from a population-based sample of 5059 men and women aged 40 years and older from the study Health and Aging in Africa: Longitudinal Studies of INDEPTH Communities (HAALSI), which was carried out in the Agincourt health and sociodemographic surveillance system in the Mpumalanga province of South Africa. We estimated the prevalence of HIV (laboratory-confirmed and self-reported) and key sexual behaviors by age and sex. We compared sexual behavior profiles across HIV status categories with and without age-sex standardization. RESULTS:HIV prevalence was very high among HAALSI participants (23%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 21 to 24), with no sex differences. Recent sexual activity was common (56%, 95% CI: 55 to 58) across all HIV status categories. Condom use was low among HIV-negative adults (15%, 95% CI: 14 to 17), higher among HIV-positive adults who were unaware of their HIV status (27%, 95% CI: 22 to 33), and dramatically higher among HIV-positive adults who were aware of their status (75%, 95% CI: 70 to 80). Casual sex and multiple partnerships were reported at moderate levels, with slightly higher estimates among HIV-positive compared to HIV-negative adults. Differences by HIV status remained after age-sex standardization. CONCLUSIONS:Older HIV-positive adults in an HIV hyperendemic community of rural South Africa report sexual behaviors consistent with high HIV transmission risk. Older HIV-negative adults report sexual behaviors consistent with high HIV acquisition risk. Prevention initiatives tailored to the particular prevention needs of older adults are urgently needed to reduce HIV risk in this and similar communities in sub-Saharan Africa.
| S-EPMC5147032 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWomen have better patient outcomes in HIV care and treatment than men in sub-Saharan Africa. We assessed--at the population level--whether and to what extent mass HIV treatment is associated with changes in sex disparities in adult life expectancy, a summary metric of survival capturing mortality across the full cascade of HIV care. We also determined sex-specific trends in HIV mortality and the distribution of HIV-related deaths in men and women prior to and at each stage of the clinical cascade.Methods and findingsData were collected on all deaths occurring from 2001 to 2011 in a large population-based surveillance cohort (52,964 women and 45,688 men, ages 15 y and older) in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Cause of death was ascertained by verbal autopsy (93% response rate). Demographic data were linked at the individual level to clinical records from the public sector HIV treatment and care program that serves the region. Annual rates of HIV-related mortality were assessed for men and women separately, and female-to-male rate ratios were estimated in exponential hazard models. Sex-specific trends in adult life expectancy and HIV-cause-deleted adult life expectancy were calculated. The proportions of HIV deaths that accrued to men and women at different stages in the HIV cascade of care were estimated annually. Following the beginning of HIV treatment scale-up in 2004, HIV mortality declined among both men and women. Female adult life expectancy increased from 51.3 y (95% CI 49.7, 52.8) in 2003 to 64.5 y (95% CI 62.7, 66.4) in 2011, a gain of 13.2 y. Male adult life expectancy increased from 46.9 y (95% CI 45.6, 48.2) in 2003 to 55.9 y (95% CI 54.3, 57.5) in 2011, a gain of 9.0 y. The gap between female and male adult life expectancy doubled, from 4.4 y in 2003 to 8.6 y in 2011, a difference of 4.3 y (95% CI 0.9, 7.6). For women, HIV mortality declined from 1.60 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.46, 1.75) in 2003 to 0.56 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.48, 0.65) in 2011. For men, HIV-related mortality declined from 1.71 per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.55, 1.88) to 0.76 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.67, 0.87) in the same period. The female-to-male rate ratio for HIV mortality declined from 0.93 (95% CI 0.82-1.07) in 2003 to 0.73 (95% CI 0.60-0.89) in 2011, a statistically significant decline (p = 0.046). In 2011, 57% and 41% of HIV-related deaths occurred among men and women, respectively, who had never sought care for HIV in spite of the widespread availability of free HIV treatment. The results presented here come from a poor rural setting in southern Africa with high HIV prevalence and high HIV treatment coverage; broader generalizability is unknown. Additionally, factors other than HIV treatment scale-up may have influenced population mortality trends.ConclusionsMass HIV treatment has been accompanied by faster declines in HIV mortality among women than men and a growing female-male disparity in adult life expectancy at the population level. In 2011, over half of male HIV deaths occurred in men who had never sought clinical HIV care. Interventions to increase HIV testing and linkage to care among men are urgently needed.
| S-EPMC4658174 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Standard approaches to estimation of losses in the HIV cascade of care are typically cross-sectional and do not include the population stages before linkage to clinical care. We used indiviual-level longitudinal cascade data, transition by transition, including population stages, both to identify the health-system losses in the cascade and to show the differences in inference between standard methods and the longitudinal approach. METHODS:We used non-parametric survival analysis to estimate a longitudinal HIV care cascade for a large population of people with HIV residing in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We linked data from a longitudinal population health surveillance (which is maintained by the Africa Health Research Institute) with patient records from the local public-sector HIV treatment programme (contained in an electronic clinical HIV treatment and care database, ARTemis). We followed up all people who had been newly detected as having HIV between Jan 1, 2006, and Dec 31, 2011, across six cascade stages: three population stages (first positive HIV test, HIV status knowledge, and linkage to care) and three clinical stages (eligibility for antiretroviral therapy [ART], initiation of ART, and therapeutic response). We compared our estimates to cross-sectional cascades in the same population. We estimated the cumulative incidence of reaching a particular cascade stage at a specific time with Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. FINDINGS:Our population consisted of 5205 individuals with HIV who were followed up for 24?031 person-years. We recorded 598 deaths. 4539 individuals gained knowledge of their positive HIV status, 2818 were linked to care, 2151 became eligible for ART, 1839 began ART, and 1456 had successful responses to therapy. We used Kaplan-Meier survival analysis to adjust for censorship due to the end of data collection, and found that 8 years after testing positive in the population health surveillance, 16% had died. Among living patients, 82% knew their HIV status, 45% were linked to care, 39% were eligible for ART, 35% initiated ART, and 33% had reached therapeutic response. Median times to transition for these cascade stages were 52 months, 52 months, 20 months, 3 months, and 9 months, respectively. Compared with the population stages in the cascade, the transitions across the clinical stages were fast. Over calendar time, rates of linkage to care have decreased and patients presenting for the first time for care were, on average, healthier. INTERPRETATION:HIV programmes should focus on linkage to care as the most important bottleneck in the cascade. Cascade estimation should be longitudinal rather than cross-sectional and start with the population stages preceding clinical care. FUNDING:Wellcome Trust, PEPFAR.
| S-EPMC5964602 | biostudies-literature