Overdiagnosis: epidemiologic concepts and estimation.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Bae JM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4398975 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundMammography screening can lead to overdiagnosis-that is, screen-detected breast cancer that would not have caused symptoms or signs in the remaining lifetime. There is no consensus about the frequency of breast cancer overdiagnosis.ObjectiveTo estimate the rate of breast cancer overdiagnosis in contemporary mammography practice accounting for the detection of nonprogressive cancer.DesignBayesian inference of the natural history of breast cancer using individual screening and diagnosis records, allowing for nonprogressive preclinical cancer. Combination of fitted natural history model with life-table data to predict the rate of overdiagnosis among screen-detected cancer under biennial screening.SettingBreast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) facilities.ParticipantsWomen aged 50 to 74 years at first mammography screen between 2000 and 2018.MeasurementsScreening mammograms and screen-detected or interval breast cancer.ResultsThe cohort included 35 986 women, 82 677 mammograms, and 718 breast cancer diagnoses. Among all preclinical cancer cases, 4.5% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 0.1% to 14.8%) were estimated to be nonprogressive. In a program of biennial screening from age 50 to 74 years, 15.4% (UI, 9.4% to 26.5%) of screen-detected cancer cases were estimated to be overdiagnosed, with 6.1% (UI, 0.2% to 20.1%) due to detecting indolent preclinical cancer and 9.3% (UI, 5.5% to 13.5%) due to detecting progressive preclinical cancer in women who would have died of an unrelated cause before clinical diagnosis.LimitationsExclusion of women with first mammography screen outside BCSC.ConclusionOn the basis of an authoritative U.S. population data set, the analysis projected that among biennially screened women aged 50 to 74 years, about 1 in 7 cases of screen-detected cancer is overdiagnosed. This information clarifies the risk for breast cancer overdiagnosis in contemporary screening practice and should facilitate shared and informed decision making about mammography screening.Primary funding sourceNational Cancer Institute.
| S-EPMC9359467 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In the design of intervention and observational epidemiological studies sample size calculations are used to provide estimates of the minimum number of observations that need to be made to ensure that the stated objectives of a study are met. Justification of the number of subjects enrolled into a study and details of the assumptions and methodologies used to derive sample size estimates are now a mandatory component of grant application processes by funding agencies. Studies with insufficient numbers of study subjects run the risk of failing to identify differences among treatment or exposure groups when differences do, in fact, exist. Selection of a number of study subjects greater than that actually required results in a wastage of time and resources. In contrast to human epidemiological research, individual study subjects in a veterinary setting are almost always aggregated into hierarchical groups and, for this reason, sample size estimates calculated using formulae that assume data independence are not appropriate. This paper provides an overview of the reasons researchers might need to calculate an appropriate sample size in veterinary epidemiology and a summary of sample size calculation methods. Two approaches are presented for dealing with lack of data independence when calculating sample sizes: (1) inflation of crude sample size estimates using a design effect; and (2) simulation-based methods. The advantage of simulation methods is that appropriate sample sizes can be estimated for complex study designs for which formula-based methods are not available. A description of the methodological approach for simulation is described and a worked example provided.
| S-EPMC7925405 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo estimate overdiagnosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) for screening with sigmoidoscopy and faecal occult blood testing (FOBT).DesignSimulation study using data from randomised trials.SettingPrimary screening, UK, Norway PARTICIPANTS: 152 850 individuals from the Nottingham trial and 98 678 individuals from the Norwegian Colorectal Cancer Prevention (NORCCAP) trial.InterventionCRC screening.Outcome measureWe estimated overdiagnosis using long-term data from two randomised trials: the Nottingham trial comparing FOBT screening every other year to no-screening, and the NORCCAP trial comparing once-only sigmoidoscopy screening to no-screening. To estimate the natural growth of adenomas to CRC, we used the following microsimulation models: (i) the Microsimulation Screening Analysis; (ii) the CRC Simulated Population model for Incidence and Natural history; (iii) the Simulation Model of Colorectal Cancer; (iv) a model derived by the German Cancer Research Center. We defined overdiagnosed cancers as the difference between the observed number of CRCs in the no-screening arm and the expected number of cancers in screening arm (sum of observed and prevented by adenoma removal). The amount of overdiagnosis is defined as the number of overdiagnosed cancers over the number of cancers observed in the no-screening arm.ResultsOverdiagnosis estimates were highly dependent on model assumptions. For FOBT screening with 2354 cancers observed in control arm, four out of five models predicted overdiagnosis, range 2.0% (2400 cancers expected in screening) to 7.6% (2533 cancers expected in screening). For sigmoidoscopy screening with 452 cancers observed in control arm, all models predicted overdiagnosis, range 25.2% (566 cancers expected in screening) to 128.1% (1031 cancers expected in screening).ConclusionsThe amount of overdiagnosis estimated based on the microsimulation models varied substantially. Microsimulation models may not give reliable estimates of the preventive effect of adenoma removal, and should be used with caution to inform guidelines.
| S-EPMC8054108 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The problem of attitude estimation is broadly addressed using the Kalman filter formalism and unit quaternions to represent attitudes. This paper is also included in this framework, but introduces a new viewpoint from which the notions of "multiplicative update" and "covariance correction step" are conceived in a natural way. Concepts from manifold theory are used to define the moments of a distribution in a manifold. In particular, the mean and the covariance matrix of a distribution of unit quaternions are defined. Non-linear versions of the Kalman filter are developed applying these definitions. A simulation is designed to test the accuracy of the developed algorithms. The results of the simulation are analyzed and the best attitude estimator is selected according to the adopted performance metric.
| S-EPMC6339217 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Urinary tract infection (UTI) and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) are the most common infections treated in hospitals. UTI and CAP are also commonly overdiagnosed, resulting in unnecessary antibiotic use and diagnostic delays. While much is known individually about overdiagnosis of UTI and CAP, it is not known whether hospitals with higher overdiagnosis of one also have higher overdiagnosis of the other. Correlation of overdiagnosis of these two conditions may indicate underlying hospital-level contributors, which in turn may represent targets for intervention. To evaluate the association of overdiagnosis of UTI and CAP, we first determined the proportion of hospitalised patients treated for CAP or UTI at 46 hospitals in Michigan who were overdiagnosed according to national guideline definitions. Then, we used Pearson's correlation coefficient to compare hospital proportions of overdiagnosis of CAP and UTI. Finally, we assessed for 'diagnostic momentum' (ie, accepting a previous diagnosis without sufficient scepticism) by determining how often overdiagnosed patients remained on antibiotics on day 3 of hospitalisation. We included 14 085 patients treated for CAP (11.4% were overdiagnosed) and 10 398 patients treated for UTI (27.8% were overdiagnosed) across 46 hospitals. Within hospitals, the proportion of patients overdiagnosed with UTI was moderately correlated with the proportion of patients overdiagnosed with CAP (r=0.53, p<0.001). Over 80% (81.8% (n=952/1164) of UTI; 89.9% (n=796/885) of CAP) of overdiagnosed patients started on antibiotics by an emergency medicine clinician remained on antibiotics on day 3 of hospitalisation. In conclusion, we found overdiagnosis of UTI and CAP to be correlated at the hospital level. Reducing overdiagnosis of these two common infections may benefit from systematic interventions.
| S-EPMC9121367 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo delineate the factors contributing to overdiagnosis of idiopathic intracranial hypertension (IIH) among patients seen in one neuro-ophthalmology service at a tertiary center.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed new patients referred with a working diagnosis of IIH over 8 months. The Diagnosis Error Evaluation and Research taxonomy tool was applied to cases referred with a diagnosis of IIH and a discrepant final diagnosis.ResultsOf 1,249 patients, 165 (13.2%) were referred either with a preexisting diagnosis of IIH or to rule out IIH. Of the 86/165 patients (52.1%) with a preexisting diagnosis of IIH, 34/86 (39.5%) did not have IIH. The most common diagnostic error was inaccurate ophthalmoscopic examination in headache patients. Of 34 patients misdiagnosed as having IIH, 27 (27/34 [79.4%]; 27/86 [31.4%]) had at least one lumbar puncture, 29 (29/34 [85.3%]; 29/86 [33.7%]) had a brain MRI, and 8 (8/34 [23.5%]; 8/86 [9.3%]) had a magnetic resonance/CT venogram. Twenty-six had received medical treatment, 1 had a lumbar drain, and 4 were referred for surgery. In 8 patients (8/34 [23.5%]; 8/86 [9.3%]), an alternative diagnosis requiring further evaluation was identified.ConclusionsDiagnostic errors resulted in overdiagnosis of IIH in 39.5% of patients referred for presumed IIH, and prompted unnecessary tests, invasive procedures, and missed diagnoses. The most common errors were inaccurate ophthalmoscopic examination in headache patients and thinking biases, reinforcing the need for rapid access to specialists with experience in diagnosing optic nerve disorders. Indeed, the high prevalence of primary benign headaches and obesity in young women often leads to costly and invasive evaluations for presumed IIH.
| S-EPMC4776085 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This article presents a review of current practice in estimating steric sea level change, focussed on the treatment of uncertainty. Steric sea level change is the contribution to the change in sea level arising from the dependence of density on temperature and salinity. It is a significant component of sea level rise and a reflection of changing ocean heat content. However, tracking these steric changes still remains a significant challenge for the scientific community. We review the importance of understanding the uncertainty in estimates of steric sea level change. Relevant concepts of uncertainty are discussed and illustrated with the example of observational uncertainty propagation from a single profile of temperature and salinity measurements to steric height. We summarise and discuss the recent literature on methodologies and techniques used to estimate steric sea level in the context of the treatment of uncertainty. Our conclusions are that progress in quantifying steric sea level uncertainty will benefit from: greater clarity and transparency in published discussions of uncertainty, including exploitation of international standards for quantifying and expressing uncertainty in measurement; and the development of community "recipes" for quantifying the error covariances in observations and from sparse sampling and for estimating and propagating uncertainty across spatio-temporal scales.
| S-EPMC7115123 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To provide insight into how and in what clinical fields overdiagnosis is studied and give directions for further applied and methodological research. DESIGN:Scoping review. DATA SOURCES:Medline up to August 2017. STUDY SELECTION:All English studies on humans, in which overdiagnosis was discussed as a dominant theme. DATA EXTRACTION:Studies were assessed on clinical field, study aim (ie, methodological or non-methodological), article type (eg, primary study, review), the type and role of diagnostic test(s) studied and the context in which these studies discussed overdiagnosis. RESULTS:From 4896 studies, 1851 were included for analysis. Half of all studies on overdiagnosis were performed in the field of oncology (50%). Other prevalent clinical fields included mental disorders, infectious diseases and cardiovascular diseases accounting for 9%, 8% and 6% of studies, respectively. Overdiagnosis was addressed from a methodological perspective in 20% of studies. Primary studies were the most common article type (58%). The type of diagnostic tests most commonly studied were imaging tests (32%), although these were predominantly seen in oncology and cardiovascular disease (84%). Diagnostic tests were studied in a screening setting in 43% of all studies, but as high as 75% of all oncological studies. The context in which studies addressed overdiagnosis related most frequently to its estimation, accounting for 53%. Methodology on overdiagnosis estimation and definition provided a source for extensive discussion. Other contexts of discussion included definition of disease, overdiagnosis communication, trends in increasing disease prevalence, drivers and consequences of overdiagnosis, incidental findings and genomics. CONCLUSIONS:Overdiagnosis is discussed across virtually all clinical fields and in different contexts. The variability in characteristics between studies and lack of consensus on overdiagnosis definition indicate the need for a uniform typology to improve coherence and comparability of studies on overdiagnosis.
| S-EPMC5770894 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Our analyses of microRNA expression profiles involve the hybridization of fluorescently labeled miRNA samples to custom made, DNA microarrays based on the GAPSII coated slides. We hybridized different amounts of microRNAs from the mirVana miRNA Reference Panel v9.1 to microarrays. Keywords: Expression Three different concentrations of miRNAs from the commercial standrads were labelled and hybridized to three microarrays.
2009-07-30 | E-GEOD-11176 | biostudies-arrayexpress
Project description:In pneumonia, specimens are rarely obtained directly from the infection site, the lung, so the pathogen causing infection is determined indirectly from multiple tests on peripheral clinical specimens, which may have imperfect and uncertain sensitivity and specificity, so inference about the cause is complex. Analytic approaches have included expert review of case-only results, case-control logistic regression, latent class analysis, and attributable fraction, but each has serious limitations and none naturally integrate multiple test results. The Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study required an analytic solution appropriate for a case-control design that could incorporate evidence from multiple specimens from cases and controls and that accounted for measurement error. We describe a Bayesian integrated approach we developed that combined and extended elements of attributable fraction and latent class analyses to meet some of these challenges and illustrate the advantage it confers regarding the challenges identified for other methods.
| S-EPMC5447849 | biostudies-literature