Dataset Information

Estimating dengue transmission intensity from sero-prevalence surveys in multiple countries.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Estimates of dengue transmission intensity remain ambiguous. Since the majority of infections are asymptomatic, surveillance systems substantially underestimate true rates of infection. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing both the burden of disease from dengue and the likely impact of interventions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:The force of infection (?) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R0) for dengue were estimated from non-serotype (IgG) and serotype-specific (PRNT) age-stratified seroprevalence surveys identified from the literature. The majority of R0 estimates ranged from 1-4. Assuming that two heterologous infections result in complete immunity produced up to two-fold higher estimates of R0 than when tertiary and quaternary infections were included. ? estimated from IgG data were comparable to the sum of serotype-specific forces of infection derived from PRNT data, particularly when inter-serotype interactions were allowed for. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:Our analysis highlights the highly heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. How underlying assumptions about serotype interactions and immunity affect the relationship between the force of infection and R0 will have implications for control planning. While PRNT data provides the maximum information, our study shows that even the much cheaper ELISA-based assays would provide comparable baseline estimates of overall transmission intensity which will be an important consideration in resource-constrained settings.

SUBMITTER: Imai N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4400108 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating dengue transmission intensity from sero-prevalence surveys in multiple countries.

Imai Natsuko N Dorigatti Ilaria I Cauchemez Simon S Ferguson Neil M NM

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20150416 4

<h4>Background</h4>Estimates of dengue transmission intensity remain ambiguous. Since the majority of infections are asymptomatic, surveillance systems substantially underestimate true rates of infection. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing both the burden of disease from dengue and the likely impact of interventions.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>The force of infection (λ) an ...[more]

PMID: 25881272

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Approximately 70% of the global burden of dengue disease occurs on the Asian continent, where many large urban centres provide optimal environments for sustained endemic transmission and periodic epidemic cycles. Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, is a densely populated megacity with hyperendemic dengue transmission. Characterization of the spatiotemporal distribution of dengue transmission intensity is of key importance for optimal implementation of novel control and prevention programmes, including vaccination. In this paper we use mathematical models to provide the first detailed description of spatial and temporal variability in dengue transmission intensity in Jakarta. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:We applied catalytic models in a Bayesian framework to age-stratified dengue case notification data to estimate dengue force of infection and reporting probabilities in 42 subdistricts of Jakarta. The model was fitted to yearly and average annual data covering a 10-year period between 2008 and 2017. We estimated a long-term average annual transmission intensity of 0.130 (95%CrI: 0.129-0.131) per year in Jakarta province, ranging from 0.090 (95%CrI: 0.077-0.103) to 0.164 (95%CrI: 0.153-0.174) across subdistricts. Annual average transmission intensity in Jakarta province during the 10-year period ranged from 0.012 (95%CrI: 0.011-0.013) in 2017 to 0.124 (95%CrI: 0.121-0.128) in 2016. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:While the absolute number of dengue case notifications cannot be relied upon as a measure of endemicity, the age-distribution of reported dengue cases provides valuable insights into the underlying nature of transmission. Our estimates from yearly and average annual case notification data represent the first detailed estimates of dengue transmission intensity in Jakarta's subdistricts. These will be important to consider when assessing the population-level impact and cost-effectiveness of potential control and prevention programmes in Jakarta province, such as the controlled release of Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes and vaccination.

Project description:Dengue virus serotype 4 (DENV-4) circulated in Aedes aegypti in 2016 and 2017 in Florida in the absence of human index cases, compelling a full assessment of local mosquito vector competence and DENV-4 risk. To better understand DENV-4 transmission risk in Florida, we used an expanded suite of tests to measure and compare the vector competencies of both an established colony of A. aegypti (Orlando strain [ORL]) and a field-derived colony from Collier County, FL, in 2018 (COL) for a Haitian DENV-4 human field isolate and a DENV-4 laboratory strain (Philippines H241). We immediately noted that ORL saliva positivity was higher for the field than for laboratory DENV-4 strains. In a subsequent comparison with the recent COL mosquito colony, we also observed significantly higher midgut infection of COL and ORL by the Haitian DENV-4 field strain and a significantly higher saliva positivity rate for COL, although overall saliva virus titers were similar between the two. These data point to a potential midgut infection barrier for the DENV-4 laboratory strain for both mosquito colonies and indicate that the marked differences in transmission potential estimates hinge on virus-vector combinations. Our study highlights the importance of leveraging an expanded suite of testing methods with emphasis on utilizing local mosquito populations and field-relevant dengue virus serotypes and strains to accurately estimate transmission risk in a given setting. IMPORTANCE DENV-4 was found circulating in Florida (FL) A. aegypti mosquitoes in the absence of human index cases in the state (2016 to 2017). How DENV-4 was maintained locally is unclear, presenting a major gap in our understanding of DENV-4 public health risk. We determined the baseline arbovirus transmission potential of laboratory and field colonies of A. aegypti for both laboratory and field isolates of DENV-4. We observed a high transmission potential of field populations of A. aegypti and evidence of higher vertical transmission of the DENV-4 field isolate, providing clues to the possible mechanism of undetected DENV-4 maintenance in the state. Our findings also move the field forward in the development of best practices for evaluating arbovirus vector competence, with evidence that transmission potential estimates vary depending on the mosquito-virus combinations. These data emphasize the poor suitability of laboratory-established virus strains and the high relevance of field-derived mosquito populations in estimating transmission risk.

Project description:BackgroundDengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model development is an empirical perspective clarifying how weather impacts transmission in diverse ecological settings. We sought to determine if location, timing, and potential-intensity of transmission are systematically defined by weather.Methodology/principal findingsWe developed a high-resolution empirical profile of the local weather-disease connection across Peru, a country with considerable ecological diversity. Applying 2-dimensional weather-space that pairs temperature versus humidity, we mapped local transmission-potential in weather-space by week during 1994-2012. A binary classification-tree was developed to test whether weather data could classify 1828 Peruvian districts as positive/negative for transmission and into ranks of transmission-potential with respect to observed disease. We show that transmission-potential is regulated by temperature-humidity coupling, enabling epidemics in a limited area of weather-space. Duration within a specific temperature range defines transmission-potential that is amplified exponentially in higher humidity. Dengue-positive districts were identified by mean temperature >22°C for 7+ weeks and minimum temperature >14°C for 33+ weeks annually with 95% sensitivity and specificity. In elevated-risk locations, seasonal peak-incidence occurred when mean temperature was 26-29°C, coincident with humidity at its local maximum; highest incidence when humidity >80%. We profile transmission-potential in weather-space for temperature-humidity ranging 0-38°C and 5-100% at 1°C x 2% resolution.Conclusions/significanceLocal duration in limited areas of temperature-humidity weather-space identifies potential locations, timing, and magnitude of transmission. The weather-space profile of transmission-potential provides needed data that define a systematic and highly-sensitive weather-disease connection, demonstrating separate but coupled roles of temperature and humidity. New insights regarding natural regulation of human-mosquito transmission across diverse ecological settings advance our understanding of risk locally and globally for dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases and support advances in public health policy/operations, providing an evidence-base for modeling, predicting risk, and surveillance-prevention planning.

Dataset Information

Estimating dengue transmission intensity from sero-prevalence surveys in multiple countries.

Publications

Estimating dengue transmission intensity from sero-prevalence surveys in multiple countries.

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