Dataset Information

Dengue on islands: a Bayesian approach to understanding the global ecology of dengue viruses.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Transmission of dengue viruses (DENV), the most common arboviral pathogens globally, is influenced by many climatic and socioeconomic factors. However, the relative contributions of these factors on a global scale are unclear.

Methods

We randomly selected 94 islands stratified by socioeconomic and geographic characteristics. With a Bayesian model, we assessed factors contributing to the probability of islands having a history of any dengue outbreaks and of having frequent outbreaks.

Results

Minimum temperature was strongly associated with suitability for DENV transmission. Islands with a minimum monthly temperature of greater than 14.8°C (95% CI: 12.4-16.6°C) were predicted to be suitable for DENV transmission. Increased population size and precipitation were associated with increased outbreak frequency, but did not capture all of the variability. Predictions for 48 testing islands verified these findings.

Conclusions

This analysis clarified two key components of DENV ecology: minimum temperature was the most important determinant of suitability; and endemicity was more likely in areas with high precipitation and large, but not necessarily dense, populations. Wealth and connectivity, in contrast, had no discernable effects. This model adds to our knowledge of global determinants of dengue risk and provides a basis for understanding the ecology of dengue endemicity.

SUBMITTER: Feldstein LR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4401210 | biostudies-literature | 2015 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Dengue on islands: a Bayesian approach to understanding the global ecology of dengue viruses.

Feldstein Leora R LR Brownstein John S JS Brady Oliver J OJ Hay Simon I SI Johansson Michael A MA

Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 20150313 5

<h4>Background</h4>Transmission of dengue viruses (DENV), the most common arboviral pathogens globally, is influenced by many climatic and socioeconomic factors. However, the relative contributions of these factors on a global scale are unclear.<h4>Methods</h4>We randomly selected 94 islands stratified by socioeconomic and geographic characteristics. With a Bayesian model, we assessed factors contributing to the probability of islands having a history of any dengue outbreaks and of having freque ...[more]

PMID: 25771261

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Project description:Knowledge on the spatial ecology of invasive predators positively contributes to optimizing their management, especially when involving cryptic and secretive species, such as snakes. However, this information is lacking for most invasive snakes, particularly on islands, where they are known to cause severe ecological and socio-economic impacts. This research is focused on assessing the spatial ecology of the California kingsnake (Lampropeltis californiae) on Gran Canaria to strengthen management actions. We monitored 15 radio-tagged individuals once per day on 9-11 days per month from July 2020 to June 2021 to calculate the species' home range and describe annual activity patterns in the invaded range. To account for the species' diel activity during the emergence period, we additionally monitored snakes from January to May 2021 during three consecutive days per month in four different time intervals each day. We detected movement (consecutive detections at least 6 m apart) in 31.68% of the 1146 detections during the whole monitoring period. Movements most frequently detected were shorter than 100 m (82.24%), and among them the range 0-20 m was the most recurrent (27.03%). The mean distance of movement was 62.57 ± 62.62 m in 1-2 days. Average home range was 4.27 ± 5.35 ha-calculated with the Autocorrelated Kernel Density Estimator (AKDE) at 95%-and did not significantly vary with SVL nor sex. We detected an extremely low value of motion variance (0.76 ± 2.62 σ2m) compared to other studies, with a general inactivity period from November to February, January being the less active month of the year. Diel activity was higher during central and evening hours than during early morning and night. Our results should be useful to improve control programs for this invasive snake (e.g., trap placement and visual survey guidance) on Gran Canaria. Our research highlights the importance of gathering spatial information on invasive snakes to enhance control actions, which can contribute to the management of secretive invasive snakes worldwide.

Dataset Information

Dengue on islands: a Bayesian approach to understanding the global ecology of dengue viruses.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Dengue on islands: a Bayesian approach to understanding the global ecology of dengue viruses.

Similar Datasets

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