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Sputum culture conversion as a prognostic marker for end-of-treatment outcome in patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: a secondary analysis of data from two observational cohort studies.

ABSTRACT: Sputum culture conversion is often used as an early microbiological endpoint in phase 2 clinical trials of tuberculosis treatment on the basis of its assumed predictive value for end-of-treatment outcome, particularly in patients with drug-susceptible tuberculosis. We aimed to assess the validity of sputum culture conversion on solid media at varying timepoints, and the time to conversion, as prognostic markers for end-of-treatment outcome in patients with multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis.We analysed data from two large cohort studies of patients with MDR tuberculosis. We defined sputum culture conversion as two or more consecutive negative cultures from sputum samples obtained at least 30 days apart. To estimate the association of 2 month and 6 month conversion with successful treatment outcome, we calculated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs with random-effects multivariable logistic regression. We calculated predictive values with bivariate random-effects generalised linear mixed modelling.We assessed data for 1712 patients who had treatment success, treatment failure, or who died. Among patients with treatment success, median time to sputum culture conversion was significantly shorter than in those who had poor outcomes (2 months [IQR 1-3] vs 7 months [3 to ?24]; log-rank p<0·0001). Furthermore, conversion status at 6 months (adjusted OR 14·07 [95% CI 10·05-19·71]) was significantly associated with treatment success compared with failure or death. Sputum culture conversion status at 2 months was significantly associated with treatment success only in patients who were HIV negative (adjusted OR 4·12 [95% CI 2·25-7·54]) or who had unknown HIV infection (3·59 [1·96-6·58]), but not in those who were HIV positive (0·38 [0·12-1·18]). Thus, the overall association of sputum culture conversion with a successful outcome was substantially greater at 6 months than at 2 months. 2 month conversion had low sensitivity (27·3% [95% confidence limit 16·6-41·4]) and high specificity (89·8% [82·3-94·4]) for prediction of treatment success. Conversely, 6 month sputum culture conversion status had high sensitivity (91·8% [85·9-95·4]), but moderate specificity (57·8% [42·5-71·6]). The maximum combined sensitivity and specificity for sputum culture conversion was reached between month 6 and month 10 of treatment.Time to sputum culture conversion, conversion status at 6 months, and conversion status at 2 months in patients without known HIV infection can be considered as proxy markers of end-of-treatment outcome in patients with MDR tuberculosis, although the overall association with treatment success is substantially stronger for 6 month than for 2 month conversion status. Investigators should consider these results regarding the validity of sputum culture conversion at various timepoints as an early predictor of treatment efficacy when designing phase 2 studies before investing substantial resources in large, long-term, phase 3 trials of new treatments for MDR tuberculosis.US Agency for International Development, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Intramural Research of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

SUBMITTER: Kurbatova EV

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4401426 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Sputum culture conversion as a prognostic marker for end-of-treatment outcome in patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: a secondary analysis of data from two observational cohort studies.

Kurbatova Ekaterina V EV Cegielski J Peter JP Lienhardt Christian C Akksilp Rattanawadee R Bayona Jaime J Becerra Mercedes C MC Caoili Janice J Contreras Carmen C Dalton Tracy T Danilovits Manfred M Demikhova Olga V OV Ershova Julia J Gammino Victoria M VM Gelmanova Irina I Heilig Charles M CM Jou Ruwen R Kazennyy Boris B Keshavjee Salmaan S Kim Hee Jin HJ Kliiman Kai K Kvasnovsky Charlotte C Leimane Vaira V Mitnick Carole D CD Quelapio Imelda I Riekstina Vija V Smith Sarah E SE Tupasi Thelma T van der Walt Martie M Vasilyeva Irina A IA Via Laura E LE Viiklepp Piret P Volchenkov Grigory G Walker Allison Taylor AT Wolfgang Melanie M Yagui Martin M Zignol Matteo M

The Lancet. Respiratory medicine 20150226 3

<h4>Background</h4>Sputum culture conversion is often used as an early microbiological endpoint in phase 2 clinical trials of tuberculosis treatment on the basis of its assumed predictive value for end-of-treatment outcome, particularly in patients with drug-susceptible tuberculosis. We aimed to assess the validity of sputum culture conversion on solid media at varying timepoints, and the time to conversion, as prognostic markers for end-of-treatment outcome in patients with multidrug-resistant ...[more]

PMID: 25726085

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Project description:BACKGROUND:The World Health Organization (WHO) has conditionally recommended the use of sputum smear microscopy and culture examination for the monitoring of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) treatment. We aimed to assess and compare the validity of smear and culture conversion at different time points during treatment for MDR-TB, as a prognostic marker for end-of-treatment outcomes. METHODS:We undertook a retrospective observational cohort study using data obtained from Hunan Chest Hospital, China and Gondar University Hospital, Ethiopia. The sensitivity and specificity of culture and sputum smear conversion for predicting treatment outcomes were analysed using a random-effects generalized linear mixed model. RESULTS:A total of 429 bacteriologically confirmed MDR-TB patients with a culture and smear positive result were included. Overall, 345 (80%) patients had a successful treatment outcome, and 84 (20%) patients had poor treatment outcomes. The sensitivity of smear and culture conversion to predict a successful treatment outcome were: 77.9% and 68.9% at 2 months after starting treatment (difference between tests, p = 0.007); 95.9% and 92.7% at 4 months (p = 0.06); 97.4% and 96.2% at 6 months (p = 0.386); and 99.4% and 98.9% at 12 months (p = 0.412), respectively. The specificity of smear and culture non-conversion to predict a poor treatment outcome were: 41.6% and 60.7% at 2 months (p = 0.012); 23.8% and 48.8% at 4 months (p<0.001); and 20.2% and 42.8% at 6 months (p<0.001); and 15.4% and 32.1% (p<0.001) at 12 months, respectively. The sensitivity of culture and smear conversion increased as the month of conversion increased but at the cost of decreased specificity. The optimum time points after conversion to provide the best prognostic marker of a successful treatment outcome were between two and four months after treatment commencement for smear, and between four and six months for culture. The common optimum time point for smear and culture conversion was four months. At this time point, culture conversion (AUROC curve = 0.71) was significantly better than smear conversion (AUROC curve = 0.6) in predicting successful treatment outcomes (p < 0.001). However, the validity of smear conversion (AUROC curve = 0.7) was equivalent to culture conversion (AUROC curve = 0.71) in predicting treatment outcomes when demographic and clinical factors were included in the model. The positive and negative predictive values for smear conversion were: 57.3% and 65.7% at two months, 55.7% and 85.4% at four months, and 55.0% and 88.6% at six months; and for culture conversions it was: 63.7% and 66.2% at two months, 64.4% and 87.1% at four months, and 62.7% and 91.9% at six months, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:The validity of smear conversion is significantly lower than culture conversion in predicting MDR-TB treatment outcomes. We support the WHO recommendation of using both smear and culture examination rather than smear alone for the monitoring of MDR-TB patients for a better prediction of successful treatment outcomes. The optimum time points to predict a future successful treatment outcome were between two and four months after treatment commencement for sputum smear conversion and between four and six months for culture conversion. The common optimum times for culture and smear conversion together was four months.

Project description:BackgroundThere was a lack of information about prognostic accuracy of time to sputum culture conversion (SCC) in forecasting cure among extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) patients. Therefore, this study evaluated the prognostic accuracy of SCC at various time points in forecasting cure among XDR-TB patients.MethodsThis retrospective observational study included 355 eligible pulmonary XDR-TB patients treated at 27 centers in Pakistan between 01-05-2010 and 30-06-2017. The baseline and follow-up information of patients from treatment initiation until the end of treatment were retrieved from electronic nominal recording and reporting system. Time to SCC was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier method, and differences between groups were compared through log-rank test. Predictors of time to SCC and cure were respectively evaluated by multivariate Cox proportional hazards and binary logistic regression analyses. A p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.ResultsA total of 226 (63.6%) and 146 (41.1%) patients respectively achieved SCC and cure. Median time to SCC was significantly shorter in patients who achieved cure, 3 months (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.47-3.53), than those who did not (median: 10 months, 95% CI: 5.24-14.76) (p-value < 0.001, Log-rank test). Patient's age > 40 years (hazards ratio [HR] = 0.632, p-value = 0.004), baseline sputum grading of scanty, + 1 (HR = 0.511, p-value = 0.002), + 2, + 3 (HR = 0.523, p-value = 0.001) and use of high dose isoniazid (HR = 0.463, p-value = 0.004) were significantly associated with early SCC. Only SCC at 6 month of treatment had statistically significant association with cure (odds ratio = 15.603, p-value < 0.001). In predicting cure, the sensitivities of SCC at 2, 4 and 6 months were respectively 41.8% (95%CI: 33.7-50.2), 69.9% (95%CI: 61.7-77.2) and 84.9% (95%CI: 78.1-90.3), specificities were respectively, 82.8% (95%CI: 76.9-87.6), 74.6% (95%CI: 68.2-80.4) and 69.4% (95%CI: 62.6-75.5) and prognostic accuracies were respectively 65.9% (95%CI: 60.7-70.8), 72.7% (95%CI: 67.7-77.2) and 75.8% (95%CI: 71.0-80.1).ConclusionIn forecasting cure, SCC at month 6 of treatment performed better than SCC at 2 and 4 months. However, it would be too long for clinicians to wait for 6 months to decide about the regimen efficacy. Therefore, with somewhat comparable prognostic accuracy to that SCC at 6 month, using SCC at 4 month of treatment as a prognostic marker in predicting cure among XDR-TB patients can decrease the clinicians waiting time to decide about the regimen efficacy.

Project description:BackgroundVitamin D modulates the inflammatory and immune response to tuberculosis (TB) and also mediates the induction of the antimicrobial peptide cathelicidin. Deficiency of 25-hydroxyvitamin D and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene may increase the risk of TB disease and decrease culture conversion rates in drug susceptible TB. Whether these VDR SNPs are found in African populations or impact multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB treatment has not been established. We aimed to determine if SNPs in the VDR gene were associated with sputum culture conversion among a cohort of MDR TB patients in South Africa.MethodsWe conducted a prospective cohort study of adult MDR TB patients receiving second-line TB treatment in KwaZulu-Natal province. Subjects had monthly sputum cultures performed. In a subset of participants, whole blood samples were obtained for genomic analyses. Genomic DNA was extracted and genotyped with Affymetrix Axiom Pan-African Array. Cox proportional models were used to determine the association between VDR SNPs and rate of culture conversion.ResultsGenomic analyses were performed on 91 MDR TB subjects enrolled in the sub-study; 60% were female and median age was 35 years (interquartile range [IQR] 29-42). Smoking was reported by 21% of subjects and most subjects had HIV (80%), were smear negative (57%), and had cavitary disease (55%). Overall, 87 (96%) subjects initially converted cultures to negative, with median time to culture conversion of 57 days (IQR 17-114). Of 121 VDR SNPs examined, 10 were significantly associated (p<0.01) with rate of sputum conversion in multivariable analyses. Each additional risk allele on SNP rs74085240 delayed culture conversion significantly (adjusted hazard ratio 0.30, 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.67).ConclusionsPolymorphisms in the VDR gene were associated with rate of sputum culture conversion in MDR TB patients in this high HIV prevalence setting in South Africa.

Dataset Information

Sputum culture conversion as a prognostic marker for end-of-treatment outcome in patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: a secondary analysis of data from two observational cohort studies.

Publications

Sputum culture conversion as a prognostic marker for end-of-treatment outcome in patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: a secondary analysis of data from two observational cohort studies.

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