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Clarifying life lost due to cold and heat: a new approach using annual time series.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:To clarify whether deaths associated with hot and cold days are among the frail who would have died anyway in the next few weeks or months. DESIGN:Time series regression analysis of annual deaths in relation to annual summaries of cold and heat. SETTING:London, UK. PARTICIPANTS:3?530?280 deaths from all natural causes among London residents between October 1949 and September 2006. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:Change in annual risk of death (all natural cause, cardiovascular and respiratory) associated with each additional 1°C of average cold (or heat) below (above) the threshold (18°C) across each year. RESULTS:Cold years were associated with increased deaths from all causes. For each additional 1° of cold across the year, all-cause mortality increased by 2.3% (95% CI 0.7% to 3.8%), after adjustment for influenza and secular trends. The estimated association between hot years and all-cause mortality was very imprecise and thus inconclusive (effect estimate 1.7%, -2.9% to 6.5%). These estimates were broadly robust to changes in the way temperature and trend were modelled. Estimated risk increments using weekly data but otherwise comparable were cold: 2.0% (2.0% to 2.1%) and heat: 3.9% (3.4% to 3.8%). CONCLUSIONS:In this London annual series, we saw an association of cold with mortality which was broadly similar in magnitude to that found in published daily studies and our own weekly analysis, suggesting that most deaths due to cold were among individuals who would not have died in the next 6?months. The estimated association with heat was imprecise, with the CI including magnitudes found in daily studies but also including zero.

SUBMITTER: Rehill N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4401844 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Clarifying life lost due to cold and heat: a new approach using annual time series.

Rehill Nirandeep N Armstrong Ben B Wilkinson Paul P

BMJ open 20150415 4

<h4>Objective</h4>To clarify whether deaths associated with hot and cold days are among the frail who would have died anyway in the next few weeks or months.<h4>Design</h4>Time series regression analysis of annual deaths in relation to annual summaries of cold and heat.<h4>Setting</h4>London, UK.<h4>Participants</h4>3 530 280 deaths from all natural causes among London residents between October 1949 and September 2006.<h4>Main outcome measures</h4>Change in annual risk of death (all natural caus ...[more]

PMID: 25877269

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Project description:PurposeAn evaluation of mortality due to infectious diseases in Poland in 1999-2012 and an analysis of standard expected years of life lost due to the above diseases.MethodsThe study material included a database created on the basis of 5,219,205 death certificates of Polish inhabitants, gathered between 1999 and 2012 and provided by the Central Statistical Office. Crude Death Rates (CDR), Standardized Death Rates (SDR) and Standard Expected Years of Life Lost (SEYLL) due to infectious and parasitic diseases were also evaluated in the study period as well as Standard Expected Years of Life Lost per living person (SEYLLp) and Standard Expected Years of Life Lost per dead person (SEYLLd). Time trends were evaluated with the application of joinpoint models and an annual percentage change in their values.ResultsDeath certificates report that 38,261 people died due to infectious diseases in Poland in the period 1999-2012, which made up 0.73% of the total number of deaths. SDR caused by these diseases decreased, particularly in the male group: Annual Percentage Change (APC = -1.05; 95% CI:-2.0 to -0.2; p<0.05). The most positive trends were observed in mortality caused by tuberculosis (A15-A19) (APC = -5.40; 95% CI:-6.3 to -4.5; p<0.05) and also meningitis, encephalitis, myelitis and encephalomyelitis (G03-G04) (APC = -3.42; 95% CI:-4.7 to -2.1; p<0.05). The most negative mortality trends were observed for intestinal infectious diseases (A00-A09) Annual Average Percentage Change (AAPC = 7.3; 95% CI:3.1 to 11.7; p<0.05). SDR substantially decreased in the first half of the study period, but then significantly increased in the second half. Infectious and parasitic diseases contributed to a loss of around 37,000 standard expected years of life in 1999 and more than 28,000 in 2012. During the study period, the SEYLLp index decreased from 9.59 to 7.39 per 10,000 population and the SEYLLd index decreased from 14.26 to 10.34 years (AAPC = 2.3; 95% CI:-2,9 to -1.7; p<0.05).ConclusionsDespite smaller numbers of deaths reported from infectious causes these diseases still represent a serious problem for Poland compared to countries in Western Europe.

Project description:gene expression was measured in control and heat resistance selected adult female flies before and at 8 time points after heat stress for 1h @ 36 degrees Abstract The availability of full genome sequences has allowed the construction of microarrays, with which screening of the full genome for changes in gene expression is possible. This method can provide a wealth of information about biology at the level of gene expression and is a powerful method to identify genes and pathways involved in various processes. In this study, we report a detailed analysis of the full heat stress response in Drosophila melanogaster females, using whole genome gene expression arrays (Affymetrix Inc, Santa Clara, CA, USA). The study focuses on up- as well as downregulation of genes from just before and at 8 time points after an application of short heat hardening (368C for 1 hour). The expression changes were followed up to 64 hours after the heat stress, using 4 biological replicates. This study describes in detail the dramatic change in gene expression over time induced by a short-term heat treatment. We found both known stress responding genes and new candidate genes, and processes to be involved in the stress response. We identified 3 main groups of stress responsive genes that were early–upregulated, early– downregulated, and late–upregulated, respectively, among 1222 differentially expressed genes in the data set. Comparisons with stress sensitive genes identified by studies of responses to other types of stress allow the discussion of heat-specific and general stress responses in Drosophila. Several unexpected features were revealed by this analysis, which suggests that novel pathways and mechanisms are involved in the responses to heat stress and to stress in general. The majority of stress responsive genes identified in this and other studies were downregulated, and the degree of overlap among downregulated genes was relatively high, whereas genes responding by upregulation to heat and other stress factors were more specific to the stress applied or to the conditions of the particular study. As an expected exception, heat shock genes were generally found to be upregulated by stress in general. Keywords: Time series

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Clarifying life lost due to cold and heat: a new approach using annual time series.

Publications

Clarifying life lost due to cold and heat: a new approach using annual time series.

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