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The added value of percentage of free to total prostate-specific antigen, PCA3, and a kallikrein panel to the ERSPC risk calculator for prostate cancer in prescreened men.

ABSTRACT: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing has limited accuracy for the early detection of prostate cancer (PCa).To assess the value added by percentage of free to total PSA (%fPSA), prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3), and a kallikrein panel (4k-panel) to the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) multivariable prediction models: risk calculator (RC) 4, including transrectal ultrasound, and RC 4 plus digital rectal examination (4+DRE) for prescreened men.Participants were invited for rescreening between October 2007 and February 2009 within the Dutch part of the ERSPC study. Biopsies were taken in men with a PSA level ?3.0 ng/ml or a PCA3 score ?10. Additional analyses of the 4k-panel were done on serum samples.Outcome was defined as PCa detectable by sextant biopsy. Receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analyses were performed to compare the predictive capabilities of %fPSA, PCA3, 4k-panel, the ERSPC RCs, and their combinations in logistic regression models.PCa was detected in 119 of 708 men. The %fPSA did not perform better univariately or added to the RCs compared with the RCs alone. In 202 men with an elevated PSA, the 4k-panel discriminated better than PCA3 when modelled univariately (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.78 vs. 0.62; p=0.01). The multivariable models with PCA3 or the 4k-panel were equivalent (AUC: 0.80 for RC 4+DRE). In the total population, PCA3 discriminated better than the 4k-panel (univariate AUC: 0.63 vs. 0.56; p=0.05). There was no statistically significant difference between the multivariable model with PCA3 (AUC: 0.73) versus the model with the 4k-panel (AUC: 0.71; p=0.18). The multivariable model with PCA3 performed better than the reference model (0.73 vs. 0.70; p=0.02). Decision curves confirmed these patterns, although numbers were small.Both PCA3 and, to a lesser extent, a 4k-panel have added value to the DRE-based ERSPC RC in detecting PCa in prescreened men.We studied the added value of novel biomarkers to previously developed risk prediction models for prostate cancer. We found that inclusion of these biomarkers resulted in an increase in predictive ability.

SUBMITTER: Vedder MM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4407822 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The added value of percentage of free to total prostate-specific antigen, PCA3, and a kallikrein panel to the ERSPC risk calculator for prostate cancer in prescreened men.

Vedder Moniek M MM de Bekker-Grob Esther W EW Lilja Hans G HG Vickers Andrew J AJ van Leenders Geert J L H GJ Steyerberg Ewout W EW Roobol Monique J MJ

European urology 20140826 6

<h4>Background</h4>Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing has limited accuracy for the early detection of prostate cancer (PCa).<h4>Objective</h4>To assess the value added by percentage of free to total PSA (%fPSA), prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3), and a kallikrein panel (4k-panel) to the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) multivariable prediction models: risk calculator (RC) 4, including transrectal ultrasound, and RC 4 plus digital rectal examination (4+DRE) f ...[more]

PMID: 25168616

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Project description:BackgroundDiagnosis of Gleason 6 prostate cancer can leave uncertainty about the presence of undetected aggressive disease.ObjectiveTo evaluate the utility of a four kallikrein (4K) panel in predicting the presence of high-grade cancer in men on active surveillance.Design, setting, and participantsPlasma collected before the first and subsequent surveillance biopsies was assessed for 718 men prospectively enrolled in the multi-institutional Canary PASS trial. Biopsy data were split 2:1 into training and test sets. We developed statistical models that included clinical information and either the 4Kpanel or serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA).Outcome measurements and statistical analysisThe endpoint was reclassification to Gleason ≥7. We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses and area under the curve (AUC) to assess discriminatory capacity, and decision curve analysis (DCA) to report clinical net benefit.Results and limitationsSignificant predictors for reclassification were 4Kpanel (odds ratio [OR] 1.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31-1.81) or PSA (OR 2.11, 95% CI 1.53-2.91), ≥20% cores positive (OR 2.10, 95% CI 1.33-3.32), two or more prior negative biopsies (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.04-0.85), prostate volume (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.31-0.70), and body mass index (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04-1.14). ROC curve analysis comparing 4K and base models indicated that the 4Kpanel improved accuracy for predicting reclassification (AUC 0.78 vs 0.74) at the first surveillance biopsy. Both models performed comparably for prediction of reclassification at subsequent biopsies (AUC 0.75 vs 0.76). In DCA, both models showed higher net benefit compared to biopsy-all and biopsy-none strategies. Limitations include the single cohort nature of the study and the small numbers; results should be validated in another cohort before clinical use.ConclusionsThe 4Kpanel provided incremental value over routine clinical information in predicting high-grade cancer in the first biopsy after diagnosis. The 4Kpanel did not add predictive value to the base model at subsequent surveillance biopsies.Patient summaryActive surveillance is a management strategy for many low-grade prostate cancers. Repeat biopsies monitor for previously undetected high-grade cancer. We show that a model with clinical variables, including a panel of four kallikreins, indicates the presence of high-grade cancer before a biopsy is performed.

Project description:BackgroundRisk models (RM) need external validation to assess their value beyond the setting in which they were developed. We validated a RM combining mpMRI and clinical parameters for the probability of harboring significant prostate cancer (sPC, Gleason Score ≥ 3+4) for biopsy-naïve men.Material and methodsThe original RM was based on data of 670 biopsy-naïve men from Heidelberg University Hospital who underwent mpMRI with PI-RADS scoring prior to MRI/TRUS-fusion biopsy 2012-2015. Validity was tested by a consecutive cohort of biopsy-naïve men from Heidelberg (n = 160) and externally by a cohort of 133 men from University College London Hospital (UCLH). Assessment of validity was performed at fusion-biopsy by calibration plots, receiver operating characteristics curve and decision curve analyses. The RM`s performance was compared to ERSPC-RC3, ERSPC-RC3+PI-RADSv1.0 and PI-RADSv1.0 alone.ResultsSPC was detected in 76 men (48%) at Heidelberg and 38 men (29%) at UCLH. The areas under the curve (AUC) were 0.86 for the RM in both cohorts. For ERSPC-RC3+PI-RADSv1.0 the AUC was 0.84 in Heidelberg and 0.82 at UCLH, for ERSPC-RC3 0.76 at Heidelberg and 0.77 at UCLH and for PI-RADSv1.0 0.79 in Heidelberg and 0.82 at UCLH. Calibration curves suggest that prevalence of sPC needs to be adjusted to local circumstances, as the RM overestimated the risk of harboring sPC in the UCLH cohort. After prevalence-adjustment with respect to the prevalence underlying ERSPC-RC3 to ensure a generalizable comparison, not only between the Heidelberg and die UCLH subgroup, the RM`s Net benefit was superior over the ERSPC`s and the mpMRI`s for threshold probabilities above 0.1 in both cohorts.ConclusionsThe RM discriminated well between men with and without sPC at initial MRI-targeted biopsy but overestimated the sPC-risk at UCLH. Taking prevalence into account, the model demonstrated benefit compared with clinical risk calculators and PI-RADSv1.0 in making the decision to biopsy men at suspicion of PC. However, prevalence differences must be taken into account when using or validating the presented risk model.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening reduces prostate cancer deaths but leads to harm from overdiagnosis and overtreatment. OBJECTIVE:To determine the long-term risk of prostate cancer mortality using kallikrein blood markers measured at baseline in a large population of healthy men to identify men with low risk for prostate cancer death. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS:Study based on the Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort enrolling 11 506 unscreened men aged 45-73 yr during 1991-1996, providing cryopreserved blood at enrollment and followed without PSA screening to December 31, 2014. We measured four kallikrein markers in the blood of 1223 prostate cancer cases and 3028 controls. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:Prostate cancer death (n=317) by PSA and a prespecified statistical model based on the levels of four kallikrein markers. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS:Baseline PSA predicted prostate cancer death with a concordance index of 0.86. In men with elevated PSA (?2.0ng/ml), predictive accuracy was enhanced by the four-kallikrein panel compared with PSA (0.80 vs 0.73; improvement 0.07; 95% confidence interval 0.04, 0.10). Nearly half of men aged 60+ yr with elevated PSA had a four-kallikrein panel score of <7.5%, translating into 1.7% risk of prostate cancer death at 15 yr-a similar estimate to that of a man with a PSA of 1.6ng/ml. Men with a four-kallikrein panel score of ?7.5% had a 13% risk of prostate cancer death at 15 yr. CONCLUSIONS:A prespecified statistical model based on four kallikrein markers (commercially available as the 4Kscore) reclassified many men with modestly elevated PSA, to have a low long-term risk of prostate cancer death. Men with elevated PSA but low scores from the four-kallikrein panel can be monitored rather than being subject to biopsy. PATIENT SUMMARY:Men with elevated prostate-specific antigen (PSA) are often referred for prostate biopsy. However, men with elevated PSA but low scores from the four-kallikrein panel can be monitored rather than being subject to biopsy.

Dataset Information

The added value of percentage of free to total prostate-specific antigen, PCA3, and a kallikrein panel to the ERSPC risk calculator for prostate cancer in prescreened men.

Publications

The added value of percentage of free to total prostate-specific antigen, PCA3, and a kallikrein panel to the ERSPC risk calculator for prostate cancer in prescreened men.

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