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A theoretical study on seasonality.

ABSTRACT: In addition to being endogenous, a circadian system must be able to communicate with the outside world and align its rhythmicity to the environment. As a result of such alignment, external Zeitgebers can entrain the circadian system. Entrainment expresses itself in coinciding periods of the circadian oscillator and the Zeitgeber and a stationary phase difference between them. The range of period mismatches between the circadian system and the Zeitgeber that Zeitgeber can overcome to entrain the oscillator is called an entrainment range. The width of the entrainment range usually increases with increasing Zeitgeber strength, resulting in a wedge-like Arnold tongue. This classical view of entrainment does not account for the effects of photoperiod on entrainment. Zeitgebers with extremely small or large photoperiods are intuitively closer to constant environments than equinoctial Zeitgebers and hence are expected to produce a narrower entrainment range. In this paper, we present theoretical results on entrainment under different photoperiods. We find that in the photoperiod-detuning parameter plane, the entrainment zone is shaped in the form of a skewed onion. The bottom and upper points of the onion are given by the free-running periods in DD and LL, respectively. The widest entrainment range is found near photoperiods of 50%. Within the onion, we calculated the entrainment phase that varies over a range of 12?h. The results of our theoretical study explain the experimentally observed behavior of the entrainment phase in dependence on the photoperiod.

SUBMITTER: Schmal C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4423511 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A theoretical study on seasonality.

Schmal Christoph C Myung Jihwan J Herzel Hanspeter H Bordyugov Grigory G

Frontiers in neurology 20150507

In addition to being endogenous, a circadian system must be able to communicate with the outside world and align its rhythmicity to the environment. As a result of such alignment, external Zeitgebers can entrain the circadian system. Entrainment expresses itself in coinciding periods of the circadian oscillator and the Zeitgeber and a stationary phase difference between them. The range of period mismatches between the circadian system and the Zeitgeber that Zeitgeber can overcome to entrain the ...[more]

PMID: 25999912

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Project description:AimsWe aimed to investigate the heterogeneity of seasonal suicide patterns among multiple geographically, demographically and socioeconomically diverse populations.MethodsWeekly time-series data of suicide counts for 354 communities in 12 countries during 1986-2016 were analysed. Two-stage analysis was performed. In the first stage, a generalised linear model, including cyclic splines, was used to estimate seasonal patterns of suicide for each community. In the second stage, the community-specific seasonal patterns were combined for each country using meta-regression. In addition, the community-specific seasonal patterns were regressed onto community-level socioeconomic, demographic and environmental indicators using meta-regression.ResultsWe observed seasonal patterns in suicide, with the counts peaking in spring and declining to a trough in winter in most of the countries. However, the shape of seasonal patterns varied among countries from bimodal to unimodal seasonality. The amplitude of seasonal patterns (i.e. the peak/trough relative risk) also varied from 1.47 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.33-1.62) to 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01-1.1) among 12 countries. The subgroup difference in the seasonal pattern also varied over countries. In some countries, larger amplitude was shown for females and for the elderly population (≥65 years of age) than for males and for younger people, respectively. The subperiod difference also varied; some countries showed increasing seasonality while others showed a decrease or little change. Finally, the amplitude was larger for communities with colder climates, higher proportions of elderly people and lower unemployment rates (p-values < 0.05).ConclusionsDespite the common features of a spring peak and a winter trough, seasonal suicide patterns were largely heterogeneous in shape, amplitude, subgroup differences and temporal changes among different populations, as influenced by climate, demographic and socioeconomic conditions. Our findings may help elucidate the underlying mechanisms of seasonal suicide patterns and aid in improving the design of population-specific suicide prevention programmes based on these patterns.

Project description:BackgroundCholera remains a major threat in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where some of the highest case-fatality rates are reported. Knowing in what months and where cholera tends to occur across the continent could aid in improving efforts to eliminate cholera as a public health concern. However, largely due to the absence of unified large-scale datasets, no continent-wide estimates exist. In this study, we aimed to estimate cholera seasonality across SSA and explore the correlation between hydroclimatic variables and cholera seasonality.MethodsUsing the global cholera database of the Global Task Force on Cholera Control, we developed statistical models to synthesise data across spatial and temporal scales to infer the seasonality of excess (defined as incidence higher than the 2010-16 mean incidence rate) suspected cholera occurrence in SSA. We developed a Bayesian statistical model to infer the monthly risk of excess cholera at the first and second administrative levels. Seasonality patterns were then grouped into spatial clusters. Finally, we studied the association between seasonality estimates and hydroclimatic variables (mean monthly fraction of area flooded, mean monthly air temperature, and cumulative monthly precipitation).Findings24 (71%) of the 34 countries studied had seasonal patterns of excess cholera risk, corresponding to approximately 86% of the SSA population. 12 (50%) of these 24 countries also had subnational differences in seasonality patterns, with strong differences in seasonality strength between regions. Seasonality patterns clustered into two macroregions (west Africa and the Sahel vs eastern and southern Africa), which were composed of subregional clusters with varying degrees of seasonality. Exploratory association analysis found most consistent and positive correlations between cholera seasonality and precipitation and, to a lesser extent, between cholera seasonality and temperature and flooding.InterpretationWidespread cholera seasonality in SSA offers opportunities for intervention planning. Further studies are needed to study the association between cholera and climate.FundingUS National Aeronautics and Space Administration Applied Sciences Program and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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A theoretical study on seasonality.

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A theoretical study on seasonality.

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