Dataset Information

An internally and externally validated prognostic score for metastatic breast cancer: analysis of 2269 patients.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The prognosis of metastatic breast cancer (MBC) is extremely heterogeneous. Although patients with MBC will uniformly die to their disease, survival may range from a few months to several years. This underscores the importance of defining prognostic factors to develop risk-adopted treatment strategies. Our aim has been to use simple measures to judge a patient's prognosis when metastatic disease is diagnosed.

Patients and methods

We retrospectively analyzed 2269 patients from four clinical cancer registries. The prognostic score was calculated from the regression coefficients found in the Cox regression analysis. Based on the score, patients were classified into high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups. Bootstrapping and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves were used for internal validation. Two independent datasets were used for external validation.

Results

Metastatic-free interval, localization of metastases, and hormone receptor status were identified as significant prognostic factors in the multivariate analysis. The three prognostic groups showed highly significant differences regarding overall survival from the time of metastasis [intermediate compared with low risk: hazard ratio (HR) 1.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.36-2.27, P < 0.001; high compared with low risk: HR 3.54, 95% CI 2.81-4.45, P < 0.001). The median overall survival in these three groups were 61, 38, and 22 months, respectively. The external validation showed congruent results.

Conclusions

We developed a prognostic score, based on routine parameters easily accessible in daily clinical care. Although major progress has been made, the optimal therapeutic management of the individual patient is still unknown. Besides elaborative molecular classification of tumors, simple clinical measures such as our model may be helpful to further individualize optimal breast cancer care.

SUBMITTER: Regierer AC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4433507 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

An internally and externally validated prognostic score for metastatic breast cancer: analysis of 2269 patients.

Regierer A C AC Wolters R R Ufen M-P MP Weigel A A Novopashenny I I Köhne C H CH Samonigg H H Eucker J J Possinger K K Wischnewsky M B MB

Annals of oncology : official journal of the European Society for Medical Oncology 20131223 3

<h4>Background</h4>The prognosis of metastatic breast cancer (MBC) is extremely heterogeneous. Although patients with MBC will uniformly die to their disease, survival may range from a few months to several years. This underscores the importance of defining prognostic factors to develop risk-adopted treatment strategies. Our aim has been to use simple measures to judge a patient's prognosis when metastatic disease is diagnosed.<h4>Patients and methods</h4>We retrospectively analyzed 2269 patient ...[more]

PMID: 24368402

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Project description:Simple Summary The developed decision tree uses patient status, the Charlson comorbidity index, the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance scale, age, sex, cancer type, health insurance status, radiotherapy aim, and fractionation type to distinguish between compliant and noncompliant patients. The developed tree’s ability to identify those patients who are likely to discontinue their radiotherapy treatment is reasonably good, providing caregivers with a rationale for deciding whether to start radiotherapy treatment or look for alternative treatment for these patients. Additionally, the developed decision tree can help to boost treatment compliance by targeting those patients who are likely to discontinue therapy with incentives and techniques to help them adhere to treatment, especially for patients already receiving therapy. Abstract This study aims to analyze the relationship between the available variables and treatment compliance in elderly cancer patients treated with radiotherapy and to establish a decision tree model to guide caregivers in their decision-making process. For this purpose, 456 patients over 74 years of age who received radiotherapy between 2005 and 2017 were included in this retrospective analysis. The outcome of interest was radiotherapy compliance, determined by whether patients completed their scheduled radiotherapy treatment (compliance means they completed their treatment and noncompliance means they did not). A bootstrap (B = 400) technique was implemented to select the best tuning parameters to establish the decision tree. The developed decision tree uses patient status, the Charlson comorbidity index, the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance scale, age, sex, cancer type, health insurance status, radiotherapy aim, and fractionation type (conventional fractionation versus hypofractionation) to distinguish between compliant and noncompliant patients. The decision tree’s mean area under the curve and 95% confidence interval was 0.71 (0.66–0.77). Although external validation is needed to determine the decision tree’s clinical usefulness, its discriminating ability was moderate and it could serve as an aid for caregivers to select the optimal treatment for elderly cancer patients.

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Dataset Information

An internally and externally validated prognostic score for metastatic breast cancer: analysis of 2269 patients.

Background

Patients and methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

An internally and externally validated prognostic score for metastatic breast cancer: analysis of 2269 patients.

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