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Transferability and generalizability of regression models of ultrafine particles in urban neighborhoods in the Boston area.

ABSTRACT: Land use regression (LUR) models have been used to assess air pollutant exposure, but limited evidence exists on whether location-specific LUR models are applicable to other locations (transferability) or general models are applicable to smaller areas (generalizability). We tested transferability and generalizability of spatial-temporal LUR models of hourly particle number concentration (PNC) for Boston-area (MA, U.S.A.) urban neighborhoods near Interstate 93. Four neighborhood-specific regression models and one Boston-area model were developed from mobile monitoring measurements (34-46 days/neighborhood over one year each). Transferability was tested by applying each neighborhood-specific model to the other neighborhoods; generalizability was tested by applying the Boston-area model to each neighborhood. Both the transferability and generalizability of models were tested with and without neighborhood-specific calibration. Important PNC predictors (adjusted-R(2) = 0.24-0.43) included wind speed and direction, temperature, highway traffic volume, and distance from the highway edge. Direct model transferability was poor (R(2) < 0.17). Locally-calibrated transferred models (R(2) = 0.19-0.40) and the Boston-area model (adjusted-R(2) = 0.26, range: 0.13-0.30) performed similarly to neighborhood-specific models; however, some coefficients of locally calibrated transferred models were uninterpretable. Our results show that transferability of neighborhood-specific LUR models of hourly PNC was limited, but that a general model performed acceptably in multiple areas when calibrated with local data.

SUBMITTER: Patton AP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4440409 | biostudies-literature | 2015 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Transferability and generalizability of regression models of ultrafine particles in urban neighborhoods in the Boston area.

Patton Allison P AP Zamore Wig W Naumova Elena N EN Levy Jonathan I JI Brugge Doug D Durant John L JL

Environmental science & technology 20150430 10

Land use regression (LUR) models have been used to assess air pollutant exposure, but limited evidence exists on whether location-specific LUR models are applicable to other locations (transferability) or general models are applicable to smaller areas (generalizability). We tested transferability and generalizability of spatial-temporal LUR models of hourly particle number concentration (PNC) for Boston-area (MA, U.S.A.) urban neighborhoods near Interstate 93. Four neighborhood-specific regressi ...[more]

PMID: 25867675

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Project description:ObjectivesIncreased air pollutant concentrations have been linked to several asthma-related outcomes in children, including respiratory symptoms, medication use, and hospital visits. However, few studies have examined effects of ultrafine particles in a pediatric population. Our primary objective was to examine the effects of ambient concentrations of ultrafine particles on asthma exacerbation among urban children and determine whether consistent treatment with inhaled corticosteroids could attenuate these effects. We also explored the relationship between asthma exacerbation and ambient concentrations of accumulation mode particles, fine particles (≤2.5 micrograms [μm]; PM2.5), carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and ozone. We hypothesized that increased 1-7 day concentrations of ultrafine particles and other pollutants would be associated with increases in the relative odds of an asthma exacerbation, but that this increase in risk would be attenuated among children receiving school-based corticosteroid therapy.MethodsWe conducted a pilot study using data from 3 to 10 year-old children participating in the School-Based Asthma Therapy trial. Using a time-stratified case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression, we estimated the relative odds of a pediatric asthma visit treated with prednisone (n=96 visits among 74 children) associated with increased pollutant concentrations in the previous 7 days. We re-ran these analyses separately for children receiving medications through the school-based intervention and children in a usual care control group.ResultsInterquartile range increases in ultrafine particles and carbon monoxide concentrations in the previous 7 days were associated with increases in the relative odds of a pediatric asthma visit, with the largest increases observed for 4-day mean ultrafine particles (interquartile range=2088p/cm(3); OR=1.27; 95% CI=0.90-1.79) and 7-day mean carbon monoxide (interquartile range=0.17ppm; OR=1.63; 95% CI=1.03-2.59). Relative odds estimates were larger among children receiving school-based inhaled corticosteroid treatment. We observed no such associations with accumulation mode particles, black carbon, fine particles (≤2.5μm), or sulfur dioxide. Ozone concentrations were inversely associated with the relative odds of a pediatric asthma visit.ConclusionsThese findings suggest a response to markers of traffic pollution among urban asthmatic children. Effects were strongest among children receiving preventive medications through school, suggesting that this group of children was particularly sensitive to environmental triggers. Medication adherence alone may be insufficient to protect the most vulnerable from environmental asthma triggers. However, further research is necessary to confirm this finding.

Project description:Atmospheric particulate matter (PM) is a recognized risk factor for the global burden of disease in human populations. We are presenting here the application of toxicogenomics in the evaluation of the toxic effects of organic content of atmospheric particle matter (PM), from urban and rural environments (city of Barcelona and village of La Pobla, NE Spain), using the developing zebrafish embryo. The main goal is to identify the metabolic pathways involved in the adverse effects observed in zebrafish embryos exposed to PM organic content from urban and rural environments, also allowing the selection of genes of interest that are differentially expressed. The relevance of particle size to the PM toxicity is also addressed. Indeed, the zebrafish embryos were exposed to PM of aerodynamic diameter larger than 7.2 μm and smaller than 0.5 μm (PM10 and PM0.5, respectively). PM0.5 concentrated biological and toxic activities linked to organic substances. Transcriptomic analyses showed strong induction of the AhR signalling pathway (a.k.a. dioxin-like activity) for embryos exposed to both rural and urban extracts, correlating with the concentrations of PAHs. Urban extracts, with strong contribution of traffic emissions, specifically de-regulated oxidative stress-related genes, as well as pancreatic and eye-lens specific genes, two organs known to be affected by air pollution in humans. Exposure to rural extracts, with high contribution of wood burning emissions, affected genes implicated in basic cellular functions, in agreement with their strong embryotoxicity. Extracts from rural and urban samples elicited both common and specific transcriptome responses, suggesting different potentially adverse outcomes depending on PM source and composition. The authors thank the financial support of the Spanish Ministry (project TEA-PARTICLE, grant number CGL2011-29621) and the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology for the doctoral grant of Sofia R. Mesquita (SFRH/BD/80710/2011) funded by the Program POPH-QREN through the Portuguese Ministry of Education and Science and the European Social Fund, and support through project PEst-C/MAR/LA0015/2013.

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Transferability and generalizability of regression models of ultrafine particles in urban neighborhoods in the Boston area.

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Transferability and generalizability of regression models of ultrafine particles in urban neighborhoods in the Boston area.

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