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Analyzing large-scale conservation interventions with Bayesian hierarchical models: a case study of supplementing threatened Pacific salmon.

ABSTRACT: Myriad human activities increasingly threaten the existence of many species. A variety of conservation interventions such as habitat restoration, protected areas, and captive breeding have been used to prevent extinctions. Evaluating the effectiveness of these interventions requires appropriate statistical methods, given the quantity and quality of available data. Historically, analysis of variance has been used with some form of predetermined before-after control-impact design to estimate the effects of large-scale experiments or conservation interventions. However, ad hoc retrospective study designs or the presence of random effects at multiple scales may preclude the use of these tools. We evaluated the effects of a large-scale supplementation program on the density of adult Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from the Snake River basin in the northwestern United States currently listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We analyzed 43 years of data from 22 populations, accounting for random effects across time and space using a form of Bayesian hierarchical time-series model common in analyses of financial markets. We found that varying degrees of supplementation over a period of 25 years increased the density of natural-origin adults, on average, by 0-8% relative to nonsupplementation years. Thirty-nine of the 43 year effects were at least two times larger in magnitude than the mean supplementation effect, suggesting common environmental variables play a more important role in driving interannual variability in adult density. Additional residual variation in density varied considerably across the region, but there was no systematic difference between supplemented and reference populations. Our results demonstrate the power of hierarchical Bayesian models to detect the diffuse effects of management interventions and to quantitatively describe the variability of intervention success. Nevertheless, our study could not address whether ecological factors (e.g., competition) were more important than genetic considerations (e.g., inbreeding depression) in determining the response to supplementation.

SUBMITTER: Scheuerell MD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4449763 | biostudies-literature | 2015 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Analyzing large-scale conservation interventions with Bayesian hierarchical models: a case study of supplementing threatened Pacific salmon.

Scheuerell Mark D MD Buhle Eric R ER Semmens Brice X BX Ford Michael J MJ Cooney Tom T Carmichael Richard W RW

Ecology and evolution 20150427 10

Myriad human activities increasingly threaten the existence of many species. A variety of conservation interventions such as habitat restoration, protected areas, and captive breeding have been used to prevent extinctions. Evaluating the effectiveness of these interventions requires appropriate statistical methods, given the quantity and quality of available data. Historically, analysis of variance has been used with some form of predetermined before-after control-impact design to estimate the e ...[more]

PMID: 26045960

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Salmon lice, Lepeophtheirus salmonis (Copepoda: Caligidae), are highly important ectoparasites of farmed and wild salmonids, and cause multi-million dollar losses to the salmon aquaculture industry annually. Salmon lice display extensive sexual dimorphism in ontogeny, morphology, physiology, behavior, and more. Therefore, the identification of transcripts with differential expression between males and females (sex-biased transcripts) may help elucidate the relationship between sexual selection and sexually dimorphic characteristics. RESULTS:Sex-biased transcripts were identified from transcriptome analyses of three L. salmonis populations, including both Atlantic and Pacific subspecies. A total of 35-43 % of all quality-filtered transcripts were sex-biased in L. salmonis, with male-biased transcripts exhibiting higher fold change than female-biased transcripts. For Gene Ontology and functional analyses, a consensus-based approach was used to identify concordantly differentially expressed sex-biased transcripts across the three populations. A total of 127 male-specific transcripts (i.e. those without detectable expression in any female) were identified, and were enriched with reproductive functions (e.g. seminal fluid and male accessory gland proteins). Other sex-biased transcripts involved in morphogenesis, feeding, energy generation, and sensory and immune system development and function were also identified. Interestingly, as observed in model systems, male-biased L. salmonis transcripts were more frequently without annotation compared to female-biased or unbiased transcripts, suggesting higher rates of sequence divergence in male-biased transcripts. CONCLUSIONS:Transcriptome differences between male and female L. salmonis described here provide key insights into the molecular mechanisms controlling sexual dimorphism in L. salmonis. This analysis offers targets for parasite control and provides a foundation for further analyses exploring critical topics such as the interaction between sex and drug resistance, sex-specific factors in host-parasite relationships, and reproductive roles within L. salmonis.

Dataset Information

Analyzing large-scale conservation interventions with Bayesian hierarchical models: a case study of supplementing threatened Pacific salmon.

Publications

Analyzing large-scale conservation interventions with Bayesian hierarchical models: a case study of supplementing threatened Pacific salmon.

Similar Datasets

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