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Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling.

ABSTRACT: Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's 'soil water' and 'labile litter carbon' variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness.

SUBMITTER: Eastaugh CS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4461190 | biostudies-literature | 2014 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling.

Eastaugh C S CS Hasenauer H H

Environmental modelling & software : with environment data news 20140501

Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be ...[more]

PMID: 26109905

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Project description:In this paper, ReaxFF force field combined with molecular dynamics method was used to study the ignition, deflagration, and detonation of pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) induced by hot spots. The hot spot is 5.6% of the total volume. When the hot spot temperature is 1000 K, the deflagration and detonation of PETN cannot be observed in the simulation time of 200 ps. When the hot spot temperature is 2000 K, it corresponds to the heating time of 20 to 50 ps, deflation and detonation were observed. During hot spot ignition, the products of decomposition of the condensed phase PETN are dominated by NO2 and HONO. The energy required for the C-C bond and C-ONO2 bond cleavage in PETN is high, resulting in only a small amount of CH2O and NO3 during the reaction. Small nitrogen-containing molecules (such as NO2, NO3, HONO, HNO3, etc.) mainly exist during thermal equilibrium, while the number of N2 increases sharply during the thermal runaway stage, and a small amount of NH3 and NH2 are also produced. H2O molecules are formed before CO2 and N2 are produced, and the number always dominates. During the thermal runaway, the entire system can maintain a spontaneous reaction, resulting in a sharp rise in temperature of about 2500 K in 20 ps. During this phase, the catalytic effect of H2O accelerates the formation of CO2 and N2 due to the near Chapman-Jouguet point in the crystal. PETN is a weak oxygen balance explosive that results in a small amount of CO and H2 production during the thermal instability phase. When the reaction is balanced, the relative molecular mass is close to or exceeds that of PETN. The product is only less than 1% of the total mass fraction, while the small molecule product is as high as 78%, and some relative molecular masses are [75,225]. The intermediates account for about 21%. Rapid and complex reaction events make it difficult to accurately predict the structure of these intermediates by existing experiments and calculations, which will be the focus of future research.

Project description:Carbon markets afford potentially useful opportunities for supporting socially and environmentally sustainable land management programs but, to date, have been little applied in globally significant fire-prone savanna settings. While fire is intrinsic to regulating the composition, structure and dynamics of savanna systems, in north Australian savannas frequent and extensive late dry season wildfires incur significant environmental, production and social impacts. Here we assess the potential of market-based savanna burning greenhouse gas emissions abatement and allied carbon biosequestration projects to deliver compatible environmental and broader socio-economic benefits in a highly biodiverse north Australian setting. Drawing on extensive regional ecological knowledge of fire regime effects on fire-vulnerable taxa and communities, we compare three fire regime metrics (seasonal fire frequency, proportion of long-unburnt vegetation, fire patch-size distribution) over a 15-year period for three national parks with an indigenously (Aboriginal) owned and managed market-based emissions abatement enterprise. Our assessment indicates improved fire management outcomes under the emissions abatement program, and mostly little change or declining outcomes on the parks. We attribute improved outcomes and putative biodiversity benefits under the abatement program to enhanced strategic management made possible by the market-based mitigation arrangement. For these same sites we estimate quanta of carbon credits that could be delivered under realistic enhanced fire management practice, using currently available and developing accredited Australian savanna burning accounting methods. We conclude that, in appropriate situations, market-based savanna burning activities can provide transformative climate change mitigation, ecosystem health, and community benefits in northern Australia, and, despite significant challenges, potentially in other fire-prone savanna settings.

Dataset Information

Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling.

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Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling.

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