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Black lives matter: Differential mortality and the racial composition of the U.S. electorate, 1970-2004.

ABSTRACT: Excess mortality in marginalized populations could be both a cause and an effect of political processes. We estimate the impact of mortality differentials between blacks and whites from 1970 to 2004 on the racial composition of the electorate in the US general election of 2004 and in close statewide elections during the study period. We analyze 73 million US deaths from the Multiple Cause of Death files to calculate: (1) Total excess deaths among blacks between 1970 and 2004, (2) total hypothetical survivors to 2004, (3) the probability that survivors would have turned out to vote in 2004, (4) total black votes lost in 2004, and (5) total black votes lost by each presidential candidate. We estimate 2.7 million excess black deaths between 1970 and 2004. Of those, 1.9 million would have survived until 2004, of which over 1.7 million would have been of voting-age. We estimate that 1 million black votes were lost in 2004; of these, 900,000 votes were lost by the defeated Democratic presidential nominee. We find that many close state-level elections over the study period would likely have had different outcomes if voting age blacks had the mortality profiles of whites. US black voting rights are also eroded through felony disenfranchisement laws and other measures that dampen the voice of the US black electorate. Systematic disenfranchisement by population group yields an electorate that is unrepresentative of the full interests of the citizenry and affects the chance that elected officials have mandates to eliminate health inequality.

SUBMITTER: Rodriguez JM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4465208 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Black lives matter: Differential mortality and the racial composition of the U.S. electorate, 1970-2004.

Rodriguez Javier M JM Geronimus Arline T AT Bound John J Dorling Danny D

Social science & medicine (1982) 20150421

Excess mortality in marginalized populations could be both a cause and an effect of political processes. We estimate the impact of mortality differentials between blacks and whites from 1970 to 2004 on the racial composition of the electorate in the US general election of 2004 and in close statewide elections during the study period. We analyze 73 million US deaths from the Multiple Cause of Death files to calculate: (1) Total excess deaths among blacks between 1970 and 2004, (2) total hypotheti ...[more]

PMID: 25934268

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Project description:RATIONALE:There has been a resurgence of progressive massive fibrosis (PMF) in the United States, particularly among central Appalachian miners. OBJECTIVES:We characterized the proportion of PMF among former U.S. coal miners applying for Federal Black Lung Program benefits, 1970-2016. METHODS:Data from the U.S. Department of Labor were used to characterize trends in proportion of PMF cases, defined as an approved black lung claim with a determination of PMF, among all miners who filed for federal benefits between January 1, 1970, and December 31, 2016. Joinpoint, logistic, and linear regression models were used to identify changes in the proportion of claimants with PMF over time. RESULTS:There were 4,679 unique PMF cases among claimants for federal black lung benefits between 1970 and 2016, with 2,474 miners determined to have PMF since 1996. The number of PMF cases among Federal Black Lung Program claimants fell from 404 (0.5% of claimants) in 1978 to a low of 18 cases (0.6%) in 1988, and then increased to 353 cases (8.3%) in 2014. The proportion of federal black lung benefits claimants with PMF has been increasing since 1978 (0.06% annual percent change [APC]; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.05-0.07%; P < 0.0001), and began increasing at a significantly increased rate after 1996 (0.26% APC; 95% CI, 0.25-0.28%; P < 0.0001). Most miners with PMF (84%) last mined in West Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, or Virginia. Since 1970, the proportion of claimants with PMF has increased significantly among miners who last worked in Kentucky (16.6% APC; 95% CI, 16.5-16.7%), Pennsylvania (4.7% APC; 95% CI, 4.6-4.8%), Tennessee (16.1% APC; 95% CI, 15.7-16.4%), West Virginia (16.8% APC; 95% CI, 16.6-16.9%), and most sharply among miners last working in Virginia (31.5% APC; 95% CI, 31.2-31.7%), where in 2009, more than 17% of claimants received a PMF determination. The proportion of PMF determinations for the rest of the United States has not exceeded 4%. CONCLUSIONS:There has been a resurgence of PMF, particularly in central Appalachian miners. The resurgence of this preventable disease points to the need for improved primary and secondary prevention of dust-related lung disease in U.S. coal miners.

Dataset Information

Black lives matter: Differential mortality and the racial composition of the U.S. electorate, 1970-2004.

Publications

Black lives matter: Differential mortality and the racial composition of the U.S. electorate, 1970-2004.

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