Dataset Information

Enhancing the Lasso Approach for Developing a Survival Prediction Model Based on Gene Expression Data.

ABSTRACT: In the past decade, researchers in oncology have sought to develop survival prediction models using gene expression data. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) has been widely used to select genes that truly correlated with a patient's survival. The lasso selects genes for prediction by shrinking a large number of coefficients of the candidate genes towards zero based on a tuning parameter that is often determined by a cross-validation (CV). However, this method can pass over (or fail to identify) true positive genes (i.e., it identifies false negatives) in certain instances, because the lasso tends to favor the development of a simple prediction model. Here, we attempt to monitor the identification of false negatives by developing a method for estimating the number of true positive (TP) genes for a series of values of a tuning parameter that assumes a mixture distribution for the lasso estimates. Using our developed method, we performed a simulation study to examine its precision in estimating the number of TP genes. Additionally, we applied our method to a real gene expression dataset and found that it was able to identify genes correlated with survival that a CV method was unable to detect.

SUBMITTER: Kaneko S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4469838 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Enhancing the Lasso Approach for Developing a Survival Prediction Model Based on Gene Expression Data.

Kaneko Shuhei S Hirakawa Akihiro A Hamada Chikuma C

Computational and mathematical methods in medicine 20150603

In the past decade, researchers in oncology have sought to develop survival prediction models using gene expression data. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) has been widely used to select genes that truly correlated with a patient's survival. The lasso selects genes for prediction by shrinking a large number of coefficients of the candidate genes towards zero based on a tuning parameter that is often determined by a cross-validation (CV). However, this method can pass ov ...[more]

PMID: 26146513

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Project description:BackgroundHigh-throughput gene expression profiling technologies generating a wealth of data, are increasingly used for characterization of tumor biopsies for clinical trials. By applying machine learning algorithms to such clinically documented data sets, one hopes to improve tumor diagnosis, prognosis, as well as prediction of treatment response. However, the limited number of patients enrolled in a single trial study limits the power of machine learning approaches due to over-fitting. One could partially overcome this limitation by merging data from different studies. Nevertheless, such data sets differ from each other with regard to technical biases, patient selection criteria and follow-up treatment. It is therefore not clear at all whether the advantage of increased sample size outweighs the disadvantage of higher heterogeneity of merged data sets. Here, we present a systematic study to answer this question specifically for breast cancer data sets. We use survival prediction based on Cox regression as an assay to measure the added value of merged data sets.ResultsUsing time-dependent Receiver Operating Characteristic-Area Under the Curve (ROC-AUC) and hazard ratio as performance measures, we see in overall no significant improvement or deterioration of survival prediction with merged data sets as compared to individual data sets. This apparently was due to the fact that a few genes with strong prognostic power were not available on all microarray platforms and thus were not retained in the merged data sets. Surprisingly, we found that the overall best performance was achieved with a single-gene predictor consisting of CYB5D1.ConclusionsMerging did not deteriorate performance on average despite (a) The diversity of microarray platforms used. (b) The heterogeneity of patients cohorts. (c) The heterogeneity of breast cancer disease. (d) Substantial variation of time to death or relapse. (e) The reduced number of genes in the merged data sets. Predictors derived from the merged data sets were more robust, consistent and reproducible across microarray platforms. Moreover, merging data sets from different studies helps to better understand the biases of individual studies and can lead to the identification of strong survival factors like CYB5D1 expression.

Project description:Precision medicine in oncology aims at obtaining data from heterogeneous sources to have a precise estimation of a given patient's state and prognosis. With the purpose of advancing to personalized medicine framework, accurate diagnoses allow prescription of more effective treatments adapted to the specificities of each individual case. In the last years, next-generation sequencing has impelled cancer research by providing physicians with an overwhelming amount of gene-expression data from RNA-seq high-throughput platforms. In this scenario, data mining and machine learning techniques have widely contribute to gene-expression data analysis by supplying computational models to supporting decision-making on real-world data. Nevertheless, existing public gene-expression databases are characterized by the unfavorable imbalance between the huge number of genes (in the order of tenths of thousands) and the small number of samples (in the order of a few hundreds) available. Despite diverse feature selection and extraction strategies have been traditionally applied to surpass derived over-fitting issues, the efficacy of standard machine learning pipelines is far from being satisfactory for the prediction of relevant clinical outcomes like follow-up end-points or patient's survival. Using the public Pan-Cancer dataset, in this study we pre-train convolutional neural network architectures for survival prediction on a subset composed of thousands of gene-expression samples from thirty-one tumor types. The resulting architectures are subsequently fine-tuned to predict lung cancer progression-free interval. The application of convolutional networks to gene-expression data has many limitations, derived from the unstructured nature of these data. In this work we propose a methodology to rearrange RNA-seq data by transforming RNA-seq samples into gene-expression images, from which convolutional networks can extract high-level features. As an additional objective, we investigate whether leveraging the information extracted from other tumor-type samples contributes to the extraction of high-level features that improve lung cancer progression prediction, compared to other machine learning approaches.

Dataset Information

Enhancing the Lasso Approach for Developing a Survival Prediction Model Based on Gene Expression Data.

Publications

Enhancing the Lasso Approach for Developing a Survival Prediction Model Based on Gene Expression Data.

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