Validation of a criteria-specific long-term survival prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma patients after liver transplantation.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Teng F
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4476095 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The objective of the study is to evaluate 10 years of down-staging strategy for liver transplantation (LT) with a median follow-up of 5 years. Data on long-term results are poor and less information is available for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) non-responder patients or those ineligible for down-staging. The outcome of 308 HCC candidates and the long-term results of 231 LTs for HCC performed between 2003 and 2013 were analyzed. HCCs were divided according to tumor stage and response to therapy: 145 patients were T2 (metering Milan Criteria, MC), 43 were T3 successfully down-staged to T2 (Down-Achieved), 20 were T3 not fully down-staged to T2 (Down-not Achieved), and 23 patients were T3 not receiving down-staging treatments (No-Down). The average treatment effect (ATE) of LT for T3 tumors was estimated using the outcome of 535 T3 patients undergoing non-LT therapies, using inverse probability weighting regression adjustment. The 24-month drop-out rate during waiting time was significantly higher in the down-staging groups: 27.6% vs. 9.2%, p?<?0.005. After LT, the tumor recurrence rate was significantly different: MC 7.6%, Down-Achieved 20.9%, Down-not Achieved 31.6%, and No-Down 30.4% (p?<?0.001). The survival rates at 5 years were: 63% in Down-Achieved, 62% in Down-not Achieved, 63% in No-Down, and 77% in MC (p?=?n.s.). The only variable related to a better outcome was the effective down-staging to T2 at the histological evaluation of the explanted liver: recurrence rate?=?7.8% vs. 26% (p?<?0.001) and 5-year patient survival?=?76% vs. 67% (p?<?0.05). The ATE estimation showed that the mean survival of T3-LT candidates was significantly better than that of T3 patients ineligible for LT [83.3 vs 39.2 months (+44.6 months); p?<?0.001]. Long term outcome of T3 down-staged candidates was poorer than that of MC candidates, particularly for cases not achieving down-staging. However, their survival outcome was significantly better than that achieved with non-transplant therapies.
| S-EPMC6405768 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:Liver transplantation is an optimal radical therapy for selected patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. The stringent organ allocation system driven by the Milan criteria has been challenged by alternative sets of expanded criteria. Careful analysis is needed to prove that the Milan criteria can be expanded safely and effectively. DESIGN:This study collectively reviewed 6012 patients of hepatocellular carcinoma from the China Liver Transplant Registry. Expanded criteria were evaluated to characterise an optimised expansion with acceptable outcomes beyond the Milan criteria. RESULTS:Compared with the Milan criteria, Valencia, University of California, San Francisco, University Clinic of Navarra and Hangzhou criteria provided an expansion of 12.4%, 16.3%, 19.6%, and 51.5%, respectively. The post-transplant survivals of patients fulfilling the expanded criteria were comparable to that of the Milan criteria. The analysis of net reclassification improvement and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves showed an excellent efficiency in recurrence prediction for the expanded criteria compared with the Milan criteria. In patients exceeding Milan but fulfilling the Hangzhou criteria (N=1352), ?-fetoprotein (AFP) >100?ng/mL and tumour burden>8?cm were the only two independent prognostic factors (p<0.001). Accordingly, the Hangzhou criteria were stratified as type A (tumour burden ?8?cm, or tumour burden >8?cm but AFP?100?ng/mL) and type B (tumour burden >8?cm but AFP between 100 and 400?ng/mL). Type A showed significantly higher 5-year tumour-free survival rates compared with type B (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS:The Milan criteria can be expanded safely and effectively. The prognostic stratification system based on the Hangzhou criteria serves as a hierarchy of transplant candidates for hepatocellular carcinoma.
| S-EPMC4893115 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:The recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the strongest survival-limiting factor after liver transplantation (LT) in patients with HCC. In the face of donor organ shortage, it is necessary to identify factors associated with HCC recurrence in order to maximize the utility of the available grafts. Objective:To study the phenomenon of HCC recurrence after LT at a European transplantation centre over the past 20 years. Methods:Data from 304 HCC patients who underwent LT were prospectively recorded. Clinical and pathological factors were assessed for their association with recurrence. Results:Fifty-one patients (16.8%) had HCC recurrence after LT. Patients exceeding the Milan criteria developed HCC recurrence more frequently. The time point of recurrence did not affect survival after recurrence. Furthermore, there was no difference in survival between patients with intra- and extrahepatic recurrence. However, patients with recurrence due to needle tract seeding had a significantly better outcome than patients with other sites of recurrence. Conclusion:Our data support a restrictive use of patient selection criteria to help identify patients who have an increased risk of HCC recurrence after LT, and highlight the need to improve patient selection before LT in order to minimize the rate of HCC recurrence.
| S-EPMC6620871 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn the United States, nearly 30% of liver transplants (LT) are performed for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Although overall long-term survival is highest with LT, there are limited data on the incremental survival benefit of LT versus other curative options (resection or ablation) due to shunting of patients towards LT.MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study of patients aged 50-69 with cirrhosis and HCC in the Veterans Health Administration (population enriched with 3 curative treatments) from 2008 to 2016. The cohort was restricted to patients who received LT, resection, or ablation and a calculated model for end-stage liver disease score <15 at HCC diagnosis.ResultsAmong 2129 veterans in the analytic cohort, 658 (26.7%) received LT, 244 (11.5%) underwent resection, and 1317 (61.59%) received ablation. In multivariable models, patients who underwent resection (hazard ratio: 5.42; 95% confidence interval: 4.15-7.08) or ablation (hazard ratio: 5.50; 95% confidence interval: 4.51-6.71) had significantly increased hazards of death. However, in absolute terms, the incremental survival benefit of LT over resection or ablation was small, between 0.02 and 0.03 years at 1 year, 0.32-0.42 years at 3 years, and 1.04-1.24 years at 5 years follow-up. These results were consistent in sensitivity analyses accounting for possible immortal time bias, as well as a cohort restricted to early/intermediate stage HCC.ConclusionsAlthough LT is associated with significantly increased survival compared to resection and ablation, the absolute incremental survival benefit is small over a 5-year time horizon. Optimal selection of patients for LT is critical for maximizing utilization of a scarce resource.
| S-EPMC6928443 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSalvage liver transplantation (SLT) is restricted to patients who develop hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence within Milan criteria (MC). Little is known about outcomes for SLT in patients with recurrent HCC within University of California San Francisco (UCSF) criteria after liver resection (LR).MethodsBetween January 2001 and December 2011, 380 patients with HCC meeting UCSF criteria, 200 of which were resected (LR group) from a perspective of SLT in case of recurrence, and 180 directly underwent LT (PLT). We compared patient characteristics, perioperative and long-term outcomes between SLT and PLT groups. We also assessed the outcome of LR and PLT groups.ResultsAmong the 200 patients in LR group, 86 (43%) developed HCC recurrence and 15/86 (17%) of these patients presented HCC recurrence outside UCSF criteria. Only 39 of the 86 patients underwent SLT, a transplantation rate of 45% of patients with HCC recurrence. Compared with PLT group, LR group showed lower overall survival rate (P = 0.005) and higher recurrence rate (P = 0.006). Although intraoperative blood loss and required blood transfusion were more frequent in SLT group, the perioperative mortality and posttransplant complications were similar in SLT and PLT groups. The overall survival and recurrence rates did not significantly differ between the two groups. When stratifying by graft type in the SLT group, overall survival and recurrence rates did not significantly differ between deceased donor LT (DDLT) and living donor LT (LDLT) groups. In the subgroup analysis by MC, similar results were observed between patients with recurrent HCC meeting MC and patients with recurrent HCC beyond MC but within UCSF criteria.ConclusionOur single institution experience demonstrated that prior hepatectomy and SLT for recurrent HCC within UCSF criteria was feasible and SLT could achieve the same outcome as PLT.
| S-EPMC3493590 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Introduction: Several attempts have been made to expand the indications of liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond Milan criteria. We aimed to define genomic features that enable the identification of patients with HCC beyond Milan criteria who have acceptable transplant outcomes. Methods: Among 770 consecutive HCC patients transplanted at Mount Sinai Hospital and Mayo Clinic between 1990 and 2013, 132 had tumors exceeding Milan criteria on pathology and were enrolled in the study. Explant tumors were analyzed to assess genomic signatures of poor prognosis and immunohistochemical markers associated with tumor recurrence and overall survival. Results: Most of the patients were males (80%) and HCV positive (71%) with a median age of 56. HCC beyond Milan criteria was defined pre-operative in 67%. On pathology, 44% of the patients satisfied the ‘up-to-7 rule’. At a median follow-up of 88 months, 64 patients had died and 45 recurred; the 5-year overall survival (OS) and recurrence rates were 57% and 35%, respectively. CK19 gene signature was independently associated with recurrence (HR=2.95, p<0.001), along with tumor size >5 cm (HR=3.37, p=0.023) and presence of satellite lesions (HR=2.98, p=0.001). S2 subclass signature, which is known to be associated with progenitor cell markers, was independently associated with poor OS (HR=3.18, p=0.001), along with tumor size >5 cm (HR=5.06, p<0.001) and outside up-to-seven rule (HR=2.50, p=0.002). Using the presence of markers of progenitor cells (either CK19 or S2 subclass signatures) patients may be classified into poor-prognosis (n=58; 5-year recurrence 53%, survival 45%) and good-prognosis subgroups (n=74; 5-year recurrence 19%, survival 67%) (HR=3.16, p<0.001 for recurrence, and HR=1.72, p=0.04 for OS). Conclusion: Gene signatures associated with progenitor cell markers (CK19 and S2 subclass signatures) define outcome of HCC patients beyond Milan criteria after transplantation. Patients without these signatures achieve survival rates similar as those patients within Milan criteria. Once prospectively validated, these markers may provide the rationale for a limited expansion of liver transplantation indications.
2015-10-01 | GSE62743 | GEO
Project description:Patients are prioritized for liver transplantation (LT) under an "urgency-based" system using the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. This system focuses solely on waitlist mortality, without considerations of posttransplant morbidity, mortality, and health care use. We sought to develop and internally validate a continuous posttransplant risk score during 5-year and 10-year time horizons. This retrospective cohort study used national registry data of adult deceased donor LT (DDLT) recipients with ≥90 days of pretransplant waiting time from February 27, 2002 to December 31, 2018. We fit Cox regression models at 5 and 10 years to estimate beta coefficients for a risk score using manual variable selection and calculated the absolute predicted survival time. Among 21,103 adult DDLT recipients, 11 variables were selected for the final model. The area under the curves at 5 and 10 years were 0.63 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.60-0.66) and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.64-0.70), respectively. The group with the highest ("best") scores had 5-year and 10-year survivals of 89.4% and 85.4%, respectively, compared with 45.9% and 22.2% for those with the lowest ("worst") scores. Our score was significantly better at predicting long-term survival compared with the existing scores. We developed and validated a risk score using nearly 17 years of data to prioritize patients with end-stage liver disease based on projected posttransplant survival. This score can serve as the building block by which the transplant field can change the entire approach to prioritizing patients to an approach that is based on considerations of maximizing benefits (ie, survival benefit-based allocation) rather than simply waitlist mortality.
| S-EPMC8742146 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To assess survival after liver resection and transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond Milan criteria.The role of liver resection and transplantation remains controversial for patients with HCC beyond Milan criteria. Resection of advanced tumors and transplantation using extended-criteria are pursued at select high-volume center.Patients from 5 liver cancer centers in the United States who had liver resection or transplantation for HCC beyond Milan criteria between 1990 and 2011 were included in the study. Multivariable and propensity-matching analyses estimated the effects of clinical factors and operative selection on survival.Of 608 patients beyond Milan without vascular invasion, 480 (79%) patients underwent resection and 128 (21%) underwent transplantation. Clinicopathologic profiles between resection and transplant patients differed significantly. Hepatitis C and cirrhosis were more prevalent in transplantation group (P < 0.001). Resection patients had larger tumors [median 9?cm, interquartile range (IQR): 6.5-12.9?cm vs. median 4.1, IQR: 3.4-5.3?cm, P < 0.001]; transplant patients were more likely to have multiple tumors (78% vs 28%, P < 0.001).Overall (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were both greater after tumor downstaging and transplantation than resection (all P < 0.001). OS did not differ between liver transplant recipients who were not pretreated or pretreated and failed to downstage compared with propensity-matched liver resection patients (P ? 0.176); DFS in this propensity matched cohort was greater after liver transplantation (P ? 0.017).Liver resection and transplantation provide curative options for patients with HCC beyond Milan criteria. Further treatment strategies aimed at the efficiency and durability of tumor downstaging and expansion of the role of transplantation among suitable candidates could improve outcomes in patients with large or multifocal HCC.
| S-EPMC5279918 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe Milan criteria are recommended to select hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients for liver transplantation (LT). The utility of other selection criteria, such as the alpha-fetoprotein-adjusted-to-HCC-size (AFP-UTS) criteria, is still unclear.ObjectiveWe investigated, in HCC patients who underwent LT, the survival and the recurrence after LT according to AFP-UTS and Milan criteria, the impact of early recurrence and the correlation between radiological and pathological staging.MethodsAdult HCC patients undergoing deceased donor LT at the Medical University of Vienna between 1997 and 2014 were retrospectively analysed.ResultsAmong 166 patients included, the number of patients who fulfilled Milan or AFP-UTS criteria was the same (139 [84%] each), although not all of them were the same individuals; 127 patients (77%) fulfilled both Milan and AFP-UTS criteria. Median overall survival of patients within AFP-UTS was 126.9 versus 34.2 months outside AFP-UTS (5-year survival rate 71% vs. 43%; p = 0.104). The 5-year recurrence rate was significantly lower in patients fulfilling the AFP-UTS criteria (18%) than in those exceeding AFP-UTS (64%; p < 0.001). Of the 139 patients within Milan criteria on imaging, 24 (17%) had microvascular invasion and 47 (34%) were outside Milan according to explant histology. Early recurrence correlated with AFP-UTS and was associated with dismal survival (median overall survival 17.2 vs. 122.1 months, p = 0.002).ConclusionsThe overall survival of patients within AFP-UTS criteria was favourable with a 5-year survival rate above 70%. Early recurrence is associated with worse survival after LT. The AFP-UTS criteria may be more suitable to exclude patients at high risk of (early) recurrence than Milan criteria.
| S-EPMC8259374 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Ten to twenty percent of the hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients fulfilling the Milan criteria (MC) recurred within three years after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). We therefore utilize a training cohort to develop an improved prognostic model for predicting the recurrence in these patients. By univariate and multivariate analysis, AFP level [cut-off value: 321?ng/mL, area under the curve (AUC)?=?0.724, 95% confidence interval (CI)?=?0.604-0.843, P?<?0.001] and cytokeratin-19 (CK19) and glypican-3 (GPC3) expression pattern from nine putative prognostic factors were entered in risk factor scoring model to conjecture the tumor recurrence. In the training cohort, the AUC value of the model was 0.767 (95% CI?=?0.645-0.890, P?<?0.001), which was the highest among all the elements. The model's performance was then assessed using a validation cohort. In the validation cohort, the AUC value of the model was 0.843 (95% CI?=?0.720-0.966, P?<?0.001) which was higher than any other elements. The results indicated that model had high performance with good discrimination ability and significantly improved the predictive capacity for the recurrence of HCC patients within MC after OLT.
| S-EPMC5343663 | biostudies-literature