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Trends and timing of cigarette smoking uptake among US young adults: survival analysis using annual national cohorts from 1976 to 2005.

ABSTRACT: To measure changes over time in cigarette smoking uptake prevalence and timing during young adulthood (ages 19-26 years), and associations between time-invariant/-varying characteristics and uptake prevalence/timing.Discrete-time survival modeling of data collected from United States high school seniors (modal age 17/18) enrolled in successive graduating classes from 1976 to 2005 and participating in four follow-up surveys (to modal age 25/26).The longitudinal component of the Monitoring the Future study.A total of 10 758 individuals reporting no life-time smoking when first surveyed as high school seniors.Smoking uptake (any, experimental, occasional and regular); socio-demographic variables; marital, college and work status; time spent socializing.The percentage of young adults moving from non-smoker to experimental smoking [slope estimate 0.11, standard error (SE)?= 0.04, P = 0.005] or occasional smoking (slope estimate 0.17, SE = 0.03, P < 0.001) increased significantly across graduating classes; the percentage moving from non-smoker to regular smoker remained stable. All forms of smoking uptake were most likely to occur at age 19/20, but uptake prevalence at older ages increased over time [e.g. cohort year predicting occasional uptake at modal age 25/26 adjusted hazard odds ratio (AHOR)?= 1.05, P = 0.002]. Time-invariant/-varying characteristics had unique associations with the timing of various forms of smoking uptake (e.g. at modal age 21/22, currently attending college increased occasional uptake risk (AHOR?= 2.11, P < 0.001) but decreased regular uptake risk (AHOR?= 0.69, P = 0.026).Young adult occasional and experimental smoking uptake increased in the United States for non-smoking high school seniors graduating from 1976 to 2005. Smoking uptake for these cohorts remained most likely to occur at age 19/20, but prevalence of uptake at older ages increased.

SUBMITTER: Terry-McElrath YM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4478090 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Trends and timing of cigarette smoking uptake among US young adults: survival analysis using annual national cohorts from 1976 to 2005.

Terry-McElrath Yvonne M YM O'Malley Patrick M PM

Addiction (Abingdon, England) 20150428 7

<h4>Aims</h4>To measure changes over time in cigarette smoking uptake prevalence and timing during young adulthood (ages 19-26 years), and associations between time-invariant/-varying characteristics and uptake prevalence/timing.<h4>Design</h4>Discrete-time survival modeling of data collected from United States high school seniors (modal age 17/18) enrolled in successive graduating classes from 1976 to 2005 and participating in four follow-up surveys (to modal age 25/26).<h4>Setting</h4>The long ...[more]

PMID: 25825236

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Trends and timing of cigarette smoking uptake among US young adults: survival analysis using annual national cohorts from 1976 to 2005.

Publications

Trends and timing of cigarette smoking uptake among US young adults: survival analysis using annual national cohorts from 1976 to 2005.

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