Dataset Information

Changing Malaria Prevalence on the Kenyan Coast since 1974: Climate, Drugs and Vector Control.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Progress toward reducing the malaria burden in Africa has been measured, or modeled, using datasets with relatively short time-windows. These restricted temporal analyses may miss the wider context of longer-term cycles of malaria risk and hence may lead to incorrect inferences regarding the impact of intervention.

Methods

1147 age-corrected Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence (PfPR2-10) surveys among rural communities along the Kenyan coast were assembled from 1974 to 2014. A Bayesian conditional autoregressive generalized linear mixed model was used to interpolate to 279 small areas for each of the 41 years since 1974. Best-fit polynomial splined curves of changing PfPR2-10 were compared to a sequence of plausible explanatory variables related to rainfall, drug resistance and insecticide-treated bed net (ITN) use.

Results

P. falciparum parasite prevalence initially rose from 1974 to 1987, dipped in 1991-92 but remained high until 1998. From 1998 onwards prevalence began to decline until 2011, then began to rise through to 2014. This major decline occurred before ITNs were widely distributed and variation in rainfall coincided with some, but not all, short-term transmission cycles. Emerging resistance to chloroquine and introduction of sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine provided plausible explanations for the rise and fall of malaria transmission along the Kenyan coast.

Conclusions

Progress towards elimination might not be as predictable as we would like, where natural and extrinsic cycles of transmission confound evaluations of the effect of interventions. Deciding where a country lies on an elimination pathway requires careful empiric observation of the long-term epidemiology of malaria transmission.

SUBMITTER: Snow RW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4479373 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Changing Malaria Prevalence on the Kenyan Coast since 1974: Climate, Drugs and Vector Control.

Snow Robert W RW Kibuchi Eliud E Karuri Stella W SW Sang Gilbert G Gitonga Caroline W CW Mwandawiro Charles C Bejon Philip P Noor Abdisalan M AM

PloS one 20150624 6

<h4>Background</h4>Progress toward reducing the malaria burden in Africa has been measured, or modeled, using datasets with relatively short time-windows. These restricted temporal analyses may miss the wider context of longer-term cycles of malaria risk and hence may lead to incorrect inferences regarding the impact of intervention.<h4>Methods</h4>1147 age-corrected Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence (PfPR2-10) surveys among rural communities along the Kenyan coast were assembled from 19 ...[more]

PMID: 26107772

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Project description:BackgroundBunyamwera(BUNV) and Ngari (NGIV) viruses are arboviruses of medical importance globally, the viruses are endemic in Africa, Aedes(Ae) aegypti and Anopheles(An) gambiae mosquitoes are currently competent vectors for BUNV and NGIV respectively. Both viruses have been isolated from humans and mosquitoes in various ecologies of Kenya. Understanding the risk patterns and spread of the viruses necessitate studies of vector competence in local vector population of Ae. simpsoni sl which is abundant in the coastal region. This study sought to assess the ability of Ae. Simpsoni sl mosquitoes abundant at the Coast of Kenya to transmit these viruses in experimental laboratory experiments.MethodsField collected larvae/pupae of Ae. Simpsoni sl mosquitoes from Rabai, Kilifi County, were reared to adults, the first filial generation (F0) females' mosquitoes were orally exposed to infectious blood meal with isolates of the viruses using the hemotek membrane feeder. The exposed mosquitoes were incubated under insectary conditions and sampled on day 7, 14 and 21days post infection to determine susceptibility to the virus infection using plaque assay.ResultsA total of 379 (Bunyamwera virus 255 and Ngari virus 124) Ae. simpsoni sl were orally exposed to infectious blood meal. Overall, the infection rate (IR) for BUNV and NGIV were 2.7 and 0.9% respectively. Dissemination occurred in 5 out 7 mosquitoes with mid-gut infection for Bunyamwera virus and 1 out of 2 mosquitoes with mid-gut infection for Ngari virus. Further, the transmission was observed in 1 out of 5 mosquitoes that had disseminated infection and no transmission was observed for Ngari virus in all days post infection (dpi).ConclusionOur study shows that Ae. simpsoni sl. is a laboratory competent vector for Bunyamwera virus since it was able to transmit the virus through capillary feeding while NGIV infection was restricted to midgut infection and disseminated infection, these finding adds information on the epidemiology of the viruses and vector control plan.

Dataset Information

Changing Malaria Prevalence on the Kenyan Coast since 1974: Climate, Drugs and Vector Control.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Changing Malaria Prevalence on the Kenyan Coast since 1974: Climate, Drugs and Vector Control.

Similar Datasets

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