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A direct method to evaluate the time-dependent predictive accuracy for biomarkers.

ABSTRACT: Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and their area under the curve (AUC) are important measures to evaluate the prediction accuracy of biomarkers for time-to-event endpoints (e.g., time to disease progression or death). In this article, we propose a direct method to estimate AUC(t) as a function of time t using a flexible fractional polynomials model, without the middle step of modeling the time-dependent ROC. We develop a pseudo partial-likelihood procedure for parameter estimation and provide a test procedure to compare the predictive performance between biomarkers. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator and test statistics. A major advantage of the proposed method is its ease to make inference and to compare the prediction accuracy across biomarkers, rendering our method particularly appealing for studies that require comparing and screening a large number of candidate biomarkers. We evaluate the finite-sample performance of the proposed method through simulation studies and illustrate our method in an application to AIDS Clinical Trials Group 175 data.

SUBMITTER: Shen W

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4479968 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A direct method to evaluate the time-dependent predictive accuracy for biomarkers.

Shen Weining W Ning Jing J Yuan Ying Y

Biometrics 20150310 2

Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and their area under the curve (AUC) are important measures to evaluate the prediction accuracy of biomarkers for time-to-event endpoints (e.g., time to disease progression or death). In this article, we propose a direct method to estimate AUC(t) as a function of time t using a flexible fractional polynomials model, without the middle step of modeling the time-dependent ROC. We develop a pseudo partial-likelihood procedure for paramet ...[more]

PMID: 25758584

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Project description:BackgroundThere are no accepted universal biomarkers capable to accurately predict response to immuno-checkpoint inhibitors (ICI). Although recent literature has been flooded with studies on ICI predictive biomarkers, available data show that currently approved companion diagnostics either leave out many possible responders, as in the case of PD-L1 testing for first-line metastatic lung cancer, or apply to a small subset of patients, such as the recently approved treatment for microsatellite instability-high or mismatch repair deficiency tumors. In this study, we conducted a survey of the available data on ICI trials with matched genomic or transcriptomic datasets in order to cross-validate the proposed biomarkers, to assess whether their prediction power was confirmed and, mainly, to investigate if their combination was able to generate a better predictive tool.MethodsWe extracted clinical information and sequencing data details from publicly available datasets, along with a list of possible biomarkers obtained from the recent literature. After an operation of data harmonization, we validated the performance of all the biomarkers taken individually. Furthermore, we tested two strategies to combine the best performing biomarkers in order to improve their predictive value.ResultsWhen considered individually, some of the biomarkers, such as the ImmunoPhenoScore, and the IFN-? signature, did not confirm their originally proposed predictive power. The best absolute scoring biomarkers are TIDE, one of the ICB resistance signatures and CTLA4 with a mean AUC?>?0.66. Among the combinations tested, generalized linear models showed the best performance with an AUC of 0.78.ConclusionsWe confirmed that the available biomarkers, taken individually, fail to provide a satisfactory predictive value. Unfortunately, also combination of some of them only provides marginal improvements. Hence, in order to generate a more robust way to predict ICI efficacy it is necessary to analyze and combine additional biomarkers and interrogate a wider set of clinical data.

Project description:Methods for detecting and quantifying disease biomarkers in biofluids with high specificity and sensitivity play a pivotal role in enabling clinical diagnostics, including point-of-care tests. The most widely used molecular biomarkers include proteins, nucleic acids, hormones, metabolites, and other small molecules. While numerous methods have been developed for analyzing biomarkers, most techniques are challenging to implement for clinical use due to insufficient analytical performance, high cost, and/or other practical shortcomings. For instance, the detection of cell-free nucleic acid (cfNA) biomarkers by digital PCR and next-generation sequencing (NGS) requires time-consuming nucleic acid extraction steps, often introduces enzymatic amplification bias, and can be costly when high specificity is required. While several amplification-free methods for detecting cfNAs have been reported, these techniques generally suffer from low specificity and sensitivity. Meanwhile, the quantification of protein biomarkers is generally performed using immunoassays such as enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA); the analytical performance of these methods is often limited by the availability of antibodies with high affinity and specificity as well as the significant nonspecific binding of antibodies to assay surfaces. To address the drawbacks of existing biomarker detection methods and establish a universal diagnostics platform capable of detecting different types of analytes, we have developed an amplification-free approach, named single-molecule recognition through equilibrium Poisson sampling (SiMREPS), for the detection of diverse biomarkers with arbitrarily high specificity and single-molecule sensitivity. SiMREPS utilizes the transient, reversible binding of fluorescent detection probes to immobilized target molecules to generate kinetic fingerprints that are detected by single-molecule fluorescence microscopy. The analysis of these kinetic fingerprints enables nearly perfect discrimination between specific binding to target molecules and any nonspecific binding. Early proof-of-concept studies demonstrated the in vitro detection of miRNAs with a limit of detection (LOD) of approximately 1 fM and >500-fold selectivity for single-nucleotide polymorphisms. The SiMREPS approach was subsequently expanded to the detection of rare mutant DNA alleles from biofluids at mutant allele fractions of as low as 1 in 1 million, corresponding to a specificity of >99.99999%. Recently, SiMREPS was generalized to protein quantification using dynamically binding antibody probes, permitting LODs in the low-femtomolar to attomolar range. Finally, SiMREPS has been demonstrated to be suitable for the in situ detection of miRNAs in cultured cells, the quantification of small-molecule toxins and drugs, and the monitoring of telomerase activity at the single-molecule level. In this Account, we discuss the principles of SiMREPS for the highly specific and sensitive detection of molecular analytes, including considerations for assay design. We discuss the generality of SiMREPS for the detection of very disparate analytes and provide an overview of data processing methods, including the expansion of the dynamic range using super-resolution analysis and the improvement of performance using deep learning algorithms. Finally, we describe current challenges, opportunities, and future directions for the SiMREPS approach.

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A direct method to evaluate the time-dependent predictive accuracy for biomarkers.

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A direct method to evaluate the time-dependent predictive accuracy for biomarkers.

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