Dataset Information

The Changing Strength and Nature of Fire-Climate Relationships in the Northern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., 1902-2008.

ABSTRACT: Time-varying fire-climate relationships may represent an important component of fire-regime variability, relevant for understanding the controls of fire and projecting fire activity under global-change scenarios. We used time-varying statistical models to evaluate if and how fire-climate relationships varied from 1902-2008, in one of the most flammable forested regions of the western U.S.A. Fire-danger and water-balance metrics yielded the best combination of calibration accuracy and predictive skill in modeling annual area burned. The strength of fire-climate relationships varied markedly at multi-decadal scales, with models explaining < 40% to 88% of the variation in annual area burned. The early 20th century (1902-1942) and the most recent two decades (1985-2008) exhibited strong fire-climate relationships, with weaker relationships for much of the mid 20th century (1943-1984), coincident with diminished burning, less fire-conducive climate, and the initiation of modern fire fighting. Area burned and the strength of fire-climate relationships increased sharply in the mid 1980s, associated with increased temperatures and longer potential fire seasons. Unlike decades with high burning in the early 20th century, models developed using fire-climate relationships from recent decades overpredicted area burned when applied to earlier periods. This amplified response of fire to climate is a signature of altered fire-climate-relationships, and it implicates non-climatic factors in this recent shift. Changes in fuel structure and availability following 40+ yr of unusually low fire activity, and possibly land use, may have resulted in increased fire vulnerability beyond expectations from climatic factors alone. Our results highlight the potential for non-climatic factors to alter fire-climate relationships, and the need to account for such dynamics, through adaptable statistical or processes-based models, for accurately predicting future fire activity.

SUBMITTER: Higuera PE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4482589 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The Changing Strength and Nature of Fire-Climate Relationships in the Northern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., 1902-2008.

Higuera Philip E PE Abatzoglou John T JT Littell Jeremy S JS Morgan Penelope P

PloS one 20150626 6

Time-varying fire-climate relationships may represent an important component of fire-regime variability, relevant for understanding the controls of fire and projecting fire activity under global-change scenarios. We used time-varying statistical models to evaluate if and how fire-climate relationships varied from 1902-2008, in one of the most flammable forested regions of the western U.S.A. Fire-danger and water-balance metrics yielded the best combination of calibration accuracy and predictive ...[more]

PMID: 26114580

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Project description:Evidence from natural systems suggests that hybridization between animal species is more common than traditionally thought, but the overall contribution of introgression to standing genetic variation within species remains unclear for most animal systems. Here, we use targeted exon capture to sequence thousands of nuclear loci and complete mitochondrial genomes from closely related chipmunk species in the Tamias quadrivittatus group that are distributed across the Great Basin and the central and southern Rocky Mountains of North America. This recent radiation includes six overlapping, ecologically distinct species (Tamias canipes, Tamias cinereicollis, Tamias dorsalis, T. quadrivittatus, Tamias rufus, and Tamias umbrinus) that show evidence for widespread introgression across species boundaries. Such evidence has historically been derived from a handful of markers, typically focused on mitochondrial loci, to describe patterns of introgression; consequently, the extent of introgression of nuclear genes is less well characterized. We conducted a series of phylogenomic and species-tree analyses to resolve the phylogeny of six species in this group. In addition, we performed several population-genomic analyses to characterize nuclear genomes and infer coancestry among individuals. Furthermore, we used emerging quartets-based approaches to simultaneously infer the species tree (SVDquartets) and identify introgression (HyDe). We found that, in spite of rampant introgression of mitochondrial genomes between some species pairs (and sometimes involving up to three species), there appears to be little to no evidence for nuclear introgression. These findings mirror other genomic results where complete mitochondrial capture has occurred between chipmunk species in the absence of appreciable nuclear gene flow. The underlying causes of recurrent massive cytonuclear discordance remain unresolved in this group but mitochondrial DNA appears highly misleading of population histories as a whole. Collectively, it appears that chipmunk species boundaries are largely impermeable to nuclear gene flow and that hybridization, while pervasive with respect to mtDNA, has likely played a relatively minor role in the evolutionary history of this group. [Cytonuclear discordance; hyridization; introgression, phylogenomics; SVDquartets; Tamias.].

Dataset Information

The Changing Strength and Nature of Fire-Climate Relationships in the Northern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., 1902-2008.

Publications

The Changing Strength and Nature of Fire-Climate Relationships in the Northern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., 1902-2008.

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