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Evaluating the Effects of Temperature on Mortality in Manila City (Philippines) from 2006-2010 Using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model.

ABSTRACT: The effect of temperature on the risk of mortality has been described in numerous studies of category-specific (e.g., cause-, sex-, age-, and season-specific) mortality in temperate and subtropical countries, with consistent findings of U-, V-, and J-shaped exposure-response functions. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between temperature and mortality in Manila City (Philippines), during 2006-2010 to identify the potential susceptible populations. We collected daily all-cause and cause-specific death counts from the Philippine Statistics Authority-National Statistics Office and the meteorological variables were collected from the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. Temperature-mortality relationships were modeled using Poisson regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear models, and were used to perform cause-, sex-, age-, and season-specific analyses. The minimum mortality temperature was 30 °C, and increased risks of mortality were observed per 1 °C increase among elderly persons (RR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.31-1.80), women (RR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.27-1.69), and for respiratory causes of death (RR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.23-1.88). Seasonal effect modification was found to greatly affect the risks in the lower temperature range. Thus, the temperature-mortality relationship in Manila City exhibited an increased risk of mortality among elderly persons, women, and for respiratory-causes, with inherent effect modification in the season-specific analysis. The findings of this study may facilitate the development of public health policies to reduce the effects of air temperature on mortality, especially for these high-risk groups.

SUBMITTER: Seposo XT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4483734 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evaluating the Effects of Temperature on Mortality in Manila City (Philippines) from 2006-2010 Using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model.

Seposo Xerxes T XT Dang Tran Ngoc TN Honda Yasushi Y

International journal of environmental research and public health 20150616 6

The effect of temperature on the risk of mortality has been described in numerous studies of category-specific (e.g., cause-, sex-, age-, and season-specific) mortality in temperate and subtropical countries, with consistent findings of U-, V-, and J-shaped exposure-response functions. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between temperature and mortality in Manila City (Philippines), during 2006-2010 to identify the potential susceptible populations. We collected daily all-cause and caus ...[more]

PMID: 26086706

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Project description:Background:Hospital antimicrobial stewardship programs are especially critical in countries such as the Philippines, where antibiotic resistant infections are highly prevalent. At the study institution in Manila, Philippines, a Prior Approval for Restricted Antimicrobials (PARA) is required for non-infectious disease specialists to prescribe certain antimicrobials, including carbapenems. PARA request forms include specification of empiric or definitive therapy based on diagnostic tests. Recommended duration of therapy is typically 3 days for empiric use and 7 days for definitive, with possible extension upon specialist approval. Methods:The study took place at an 800-bed tertiary hospital. We performed a retrospective review of patient medical records and laboratory reports dating from January 1 to December 31, 2016. Information related to patient demographics, carbapenem prescription, laboratory diagnosis, and therapy were compiled. Carbapenem prescriptions were classified as 'adherent' or 'non-adherent' according to clinical guidelines related to infection diagnosis, treatment duration, and de-escalation. Results:Of the 185 patients on carbapenem therapy, Prescriptions of carbapenems were either definitive (n = 56), empiric (n = 127), or prophylactic (n = 2) as defined by the ordering provider. 69 out of 185 (37%) prescriptions were deemed non-adherent to guidelines, despite receiving approvals for their respective requests. Of these, 72% were non-adherent due to failure to de-escalate the carbapenem and 28% were non-adherent due to an incomplete course of therapy. Conclusion:Despite initial PARA approval for carbapenem therapy, 37% of prescriptions were non-guideline-adherent, highlighting the ongoing challenges in implementing this type of stewardship strategy. In order to increase the effectiveness of PARA, additional approaches may be warranted, including the application of strict policies which reinforce follow-up of available culture results, justification of therapy extension, or referral to an infectious disease specialist.

Project description:IntroductionSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) belonging to the family Coronaviridae and genus Betacoronavirus is the causative agent of COVID-19 disease and was first identified in Wuhan, China. SARS-CoV-2 spread globally with >28 million cases and 911,000 deaths recorded worldwide as of September 12, 2020. The Philippines reported the first case of community transmission on March 5, 2020, and despite the government imposing one of the longest and strictest lockdowns in Southeast Asia, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases still surged with >250,000 cases and 4,000 deaths reported as of September 12, 2020. It is important to estimate the burden and impact of SARS-CoV-2 on the military population since this can affect the military readiness.Materials and methodsNasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs were collected and SARS-CoV-2 real-time RT-PCR testing was performed on the samples. Phylogenetic analysis was performed using sequences from 23 SARS-CoV-2-positive specimens from this study and sequences retrieved from GenBank and GISAID databases.ResultsFrom April 14 to August 15, 2020, a total of 12,432 specimens were tested with 763 (6%) unique individuals testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 by rRT-PCR. In the military population, majority of the patients who were tested (80%) and those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (86%) were male. Military and civilian status was available for 7,672 patients with 515/5,042 (10%) positive among military patients and 248/2,630 (9%) positive among civilian patients. Both military and civilian populations had the highest case counts of SARS-CoV-2-positive cases in the 21- to 30- and 31- to 40-year-old age groups, while the 71- to 80-year-old age group had the highest proportion (18%) of SARS-CoV-2-positive cases. Sequencing analysis showed 19 different variants in the 23 genomes. Twenty of the 23 genomes were classified under clade GR/B1.1, 2 genomes were classified under clade GR/B1.1.28, and 1 genome was classified under Clade O/B.6. Twenty-two of the 23 sequences collected after June 25, 2020, contained the D614G mutation.ConclusionWe describe here the results of SARS-CoV-2 testing for military and civilian patients and personnel. The 21- to 30- and 31- to 40-year-old age groups had the highest case counts of SARS-CoV-2-positive cases. Sequencing results showed the presence of the D614G mutation in the spike protein in a majority of specimens collected from the end of June to July 2020.

Dataset Information

Evaluating the Effects of Temperature on Mortality in Manila City (Philippines) from 2006-2010 Using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model.

Publications

Evaluating the Effects of Temperature on Mortality in Manila City (Philippines) from 2006-2010 Using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model.

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