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The contribution of mammography screening to breast cancer incidence trends in the United States: an updated age-period-cohort model.

ABSTRACT: The impact of screening mammography on breast cancer incidence is difficult to disentangle from cohort- and age-related effects on incidence.We developed an age-period-cohort model of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and invasive breast cancer incidence in U.S. females using cancer registry data. Five functions were included in the model to estimate stage-specific effects for age, premenopausal birth cohorts, postmenopausal birth cohorts, period (for all years of diagnosis), and a mammography period effect limited to women ages ? 40 years after 1982. Incidence with and without the mammography period effect was calculated.More recent birth cohorts have elevated underlying risk compared with earlier cohorts for both pre- and postmenopausal women. Comparing models with and without the mammography period effect showed that overall breast cancer incidence would have been 23.1% lower in the absence of mammography in 2010 (95% confidence intervals, 18.8-27.4), including 14.7% (9.5-19.3) lower for invasive breast cancer and 54.5% (47.4-59.6) lower for DCIS. Incidence of distant-staged breast cancer in 2010 would have been 29.0% (13.1-48.1) greater in the absence of mammography screening.Mammography contributes to markedly elevated rates of DCIS and early-stage invasive cancers, but also contributes to substantial reductions in the incidence of metastatic breast cancer.Mammography is an important tool for reducing the burden of breast cancer, but future work is needed to identify risk factors accounting for increasing underlying incidence and to distinguish between indolent and potentially lethal early-stage breast cancers that are detected via mammography.

SUBMITTER: Gangnon RE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4489135 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The contribution of mammography screening to breast cancer incidence trends in the United States: an updated age-period-cohort model.

Gangnon Ronald E RE Sprague Brian L BL Stout Natasha K NK Alagoz Oguz O Weedon-Fekjær Harald H Holford Theodore R TR Trentham-Dietz Amy A

Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology 20150318 6

<h4>Background</h4>The impact of screening mammography on breast cancer incidence is difficult to disentangle from cohort- and age-related effects on incidence.<h4>Methods</h4>We developed an age-period-cohort model of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and invasive breast cancer incidence in U.S. females using cancer registry data. Five functions were included in the model to estimate stage-specific effects for age, premenopausal birth cohorts, postmenopausal birth cohorts, period (for all years o ...[more]

PMID: 25787716

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Project description:ImportanceMerkel cell carcinoma is an aggressive, cutaneous, neuroendocrine cancer that is increasing in incidence. Understanding why the incidence of Merkel cell carcinoma is increasing through underlying factors, such as age effects, calendar period of diagnosis effects, and birth cohort effects, can help guide resource allocation and design of screening programs.ObjectivesTo evaluate the associations of patient age, calendar period of diagnosis, and birth cohort with the increasing incidence of Merkel cell carcinoma and to provide new incidence projections to 2030.Design, setting, and participantsA cross-sectional retrospective study with age-period-cohort analysis and incidence projection modeling using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program database of 9 registries from 1987 to 2016 was conducted among 3720 patients with Merkel cell carcinoma. Statistical analysis was conducted from October 20, 2019, to July 29, 2020.ExposuresAge effects (ie, physiology), period of diagnosis effects (ie, changes in diagnostics and clinical awareness), and birth cohort effects (ie, environmental risk factors) over time were assessed.Main outcomes and measuresIncidence rates of Merkel cell carcinoma.ResultsAmong the 3720 patients in the study (2200 male patients [59.1%]; median age, 77 years [interquartile range, 68-84 years]), during the period from 2012 to 2016, the age-adjusted Merkel cell carcinoma incidence rate was 0.66 per 100 000 (95% CI, 0.62-0.70), which represented a 3.5-times (95% CI, 3.0-4.2) increase from 1987 to 1991. The incidence of Merkel cell carcinoma increased with patient age across calendar periods and birth cohorts; the highest incidence rate was observed for those aged 85 years or older, with an age-adjusted rate from 2012 to 2016 of 14.6 per 100 000 for men and 5.5 per 100 000 for women. Although the birth cohort effect has continued to increase over time, the calendar period of diagnosis effect has started to plateau. It is projected that there will be 3023 new cases of Merkel cell carcinoma in 2020 and 5130 new cases in 2030, increased from an estimated 1933 cases in 2010.Conclusions and relevanceThe slowing down of the period effect (ie, changes in diagnostics and awareness) found in this longitudinal cohort study suggests that part of the initial increased incidence of Merkel cell carcinoma was associated with increased detection. However, the projected increase in incidence rate is likely associated with the aging population and increasing risk factor exposure in more recent birth cohorts.

Project description:ImportanceEarly-onset colorectal cancer incidence rates among patients aged 45 to 49 years have been considered much lower compared with the rates among patients aged 50 to 54 years, prompting debate about earlier screening benefits at 45 years. However, the observed incidence rates in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries may underestimate colorectal cancer case burdens in those younger than 50 years compared with those older than 50 years because average-risk screening is generally not performed to detect preclinical cases of colorectal cancer. Finding steep incidence increases of invasive stage (beyond in situ) cases of colorectal cancer from age 49 to 50 years would be consistent with high rates of preexisting, undetected cancers in younger patients ultimately receiving a diagnosis of colorectal cancer after undergoing screening at 50 years.ObjectiveTo assess the preclinical burden of colorectal cancer by analyzing its incidence in 1-year age increments, focusing on the transition between ages 49 and 50 years.Design, setting, and participantsData from the SEER 18 registries, representing 28% of the US population, were used to conduct a cross-sectional study of colorectal cancer incidence rates from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2015, in 1-year age increments (ages 30-60 years) stratified by US region (South, West, Northeast, and Midwest), sex, race, disease stage, and tumor location. Statistical analysis was conducted from November 1, 2018, to December 15, 2019.Main outcomes and measuresIncidence rates of colorectal cancer.ResultsA total of 170 434 cases of colorectal cancer were analyzed among 165 160 patients (92 247 men [55.9%]; mean [SD] age, 51.6 [6.7] years). Steep increases in the incidence of colorectal cancer in the SEER 18 registries were found from 49 to 50 years of age (46.1% increase: 34.9 [95% CI, 34.1-35.8] to 51.0 [95% CI, 50.0-52.1] per 100 000 population). Steep rate increases from 49 to 50 years of age were also seen in all US regions, men and women, white and black populations, and in colon and rectal cancers. The rate ratio incidence increase in the SEER 18 registries from 49 to 50 years of age (1.46 [95% CI, 1.43-1.51]) was significantly higher than earlier 1-year age transitions. Steep rate increases in the SEER 18 registries were found from 49 to 50 years of age in localized-stage (75.9% increase: 11.2 [95% CI, 10.7-11.7] to 19.7 [95% CI, 19.0-20.3] per 100 000) and regional-stage (30.3% increase: 13.2 [95% CI, 12.7-13.8] to 17.2 [95% CI, 16.7-17.8] per 100 000) colorectal cancers. A total of 8799 of the 9474 cases (92.9%) of colorectal cancer in the SEER 18 registries from 2000 to 2015 that were diagnosed among individuals aged 50 years were invasive.Conclusions and relevanceSteep incidence increases between 49 and 50 years of age are consistent with previously undetected colorectal cancers diagnosed via screening uptake at 50 years. These cancers are not reflected in observed rates of colorectal cancer in the SEER registries among individuals younger than 50 years. Hence, using observed incidence rates from 45 to 49 years of age alone to assess potential outcomes of earlier screening may underestimate cancer prevention benefits.

Project description:Background: Gastrointestinal (GI) cancers are the common cause of morbidity and mortality in China which seriously threaten people's health and lives. The aim of this study was to describe the temporal trend in the epidemiology of GI cancers from 1991 to 2015, with an emphasis on the effects of age, period and cohort in Yangzhong City, Jiangsu province, a high-risk area of GI cancers in China. Methods: Our study extracted cases of gastric cancer, esophageal cancer and colorectal cancer diagnosed from 1991 to 2015 from Yangzhong Cancer Registry. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) were calculated and joinpoint regression was used to compute the estimated annual percent changes. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was performed to investigate the independent effects of age, calendar period, and birth cohort. Results: Between 1991 and 2015, 18,006 new cases and 10,262 deaths were registered with GI cancers in Yangzhong. The age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of gastric cancer decreased in both sexes during the study period. And the incidence rates of esophageal cancer stabilized at first then continued to decline, the turning point was in 2005 for men and 2001 for women. Changes in the mortality rates of gastric cancer and esophageal cancer showed significant declined trends around 2000-2010 in both genders. The incidence rates of colorectal cancer increased steadily during the entire study period, and the increase was more pronounced in the mortality rates of men. The results of APC analysis suggest that general decreases in incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer and gastric cancer might be caused by the downward trend of the period and cohort effects, while the increases in colorectal cancer might be caused by the uptrend of the period effects. Conclusions: The incidence and mortality rates of esophageal and gastric cancers showed a downward trend and colorectal cancer was on the rise as a whole in Yangzhong City. The different burden of gastrointestinal cancer indicating heterogeneous risk factors exist and may have contributed to these temporal variations.

Project description:To examine whether U.S. radiologists' interpretive volume affects their screening mammography performance.Annual interpretive volume measures (total, screening, diagnostic, and screening focus [ratio of screening to diagnostic mammograms]) were collected for 120 radiologists in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) who interpreted 783?965 screening mammograms from 2002 to 2006. Volume measures in 1 year were examined by using multivariate logistic regression relative to screening sensitivity, false-positive rates, and cancer detection rate the next year. BCSC registries and the Statistical Coordinating Center received institutional review board approval for active or passive consenting processes and a Federal Certificate of Confidentiality and other protections for participating women, physicians, and facilities. All procedures were compliant with the terms of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act.Mean sensitivity was 85.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 83.7%, 86.6%) and was significantly lower for radiologists with a greater screening focus (P = .023) but did not significantly differ by total (P = .47), screening (P = .33), or diagnostic (P = .23) volume. The mean false-positive rate was 9.1% (95% CI: 8.1%, 10.1%), with rates significantly higher for radiologists who had the lowest total (P = .008) and screening (P = .015) volumes. Radiologists with low diagnostic volume (P = .004 and P = .008) and a greater screening focus (P = .003 and P = .002) had significantly lower false-positive and cancer detection rates, respectively. Median invasive tumor size and proportion of cancers detected at early stages did not vary by volume.Increasing minimum interpretive volume requirements in the United States while adding a minimal requirement for diagnostic interpretation could reduce the number of false-positive work-ups without hindering cancer detection. These results provide detailed associations between mammography volumes and performance for policymakers to consider along with workforce, practice organization, and access issues and radiologist experience when reevaluating requirements.

Project description:Importance:Melanoma is epidemiologically linked to UV exposure, particularly childhood sunburn. Public health campaigns are increasing sun-protective behavior in the United States, but the effect on melanoma incidence is unknown. Objective:To examine the incidence of melanoma in the United States and whether any age-specific differences are present. Design, Setting, and Participants:Observational, population-based registry data were extracted on July 3, 2018, from the combined National Program of Cancer Registries-Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results United States Cancer Statistics database for 2001-2015. Deidentified data for 988?103 cases of invasive melanoma, with International Classification of Diseases for Oncology histologic categorization codes 8720 to 8790, were used for analysis. Data analysis was performed from July 1, 2018, to March 1, 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures:The annual rates of melanoma in pediatric, adolescent, young adult, and adult age groups were determined. Analyses were stratified by sex, and incidence rates were age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. Annual percentage change (APC) in incidence rate was calculated over the most recent decade for which data were available (2006-2015) using the weighted least squares method. Results:In 2015, 83?362 cases of invasive melanoma were reported in the United States, including 67 in children younger than 10 years, 251 in adolescents (10-19 years), and 1973 in young adults (20-29 years). Between 2006 and 2015, the overall incidence rate increased from 200.1 to 229.1 cases per million person-years. In adults aged 40 years or older, melanoma rates increased by an APC of 1.8% in both men (95% CI, 1.4%-2.1%) and women (95% CI, 1.4%-2.2%). In contrast, clinically and statistically significant decreases were seen in melanoma incidence for adolescents and young adults. Specifically, incidence rates decreased by an APC of -4.4% for male adolescents (95% CI, -1.7% to -7.0%), -5.4% for female adolescents (95% CI, -3.3% to -7.4%), -3.7% for male young adults (95% CI, -2.5% to -4.8%), and -3.6% for female young adults (95% CI, -2.8% to -4.5%). Data on skin pigmentation and sun protection history were unavailable; similar trends were observed with data limited to non-Hispanic whites. Young adult women appeared to have twice the risk of melanoma as young adult men. Conclusions and Relevance:The incidence of invasive melanoma in the United States appeared to decrease in adolescents and young adults from 2006 to 2015, and this finding contrasted with increases in older populations. These incidence trends suggest that public health efforts may be favorably influencing melanoma incidence in the United States.

Dataset Information

The contribution of mammography screening to breast cancer incidence trends in the United States: an updated age-period-cohort model.

Publications

The contribution of mammography screening to breast cancer incidence trends in the United States: an updated age-period-cohort model.

Similar Datasets

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