Dataset Information

Sample Size Calculation: Inaccurate A Priori Assumptions for Nuisance Parameters Can Greatly Affect the Power of a Randomized Controlled Trial.

ABSTRACT: We aimed to examine the extent to which inaccurate assumptions for nuisance parameters used to calculate sample size can affect the power of a randomized controlled trial (RCT). In a simulation study, we separately considered an RCT with continuous, dichotomous or time-to-event outcomes, with associated nuisance parameters of standard deviation, success rate in the control group and survival rate in the control group at some time point, respectively. For each type of outcome, we calculated a required sample size N for a hypothesized treatment effect, an assumed nuisance parameter and a nominal power of 80%. We then assumed a nuisance parameter associated with a relative error at the design stage. For each type of outcome, we randomly drew 10,000 relative errors of the associated nuisance parameter (from empirical distributions derived from a previously published review). Then, retro-fitting the sample size formula, we derived, for the pre-calculated sample size N, the real power of the RCT, taking into account the relative error for the nuisance parameter. In total, 23%, 0% and 18% of RCTs with continuous, binary and time-to-event outcomes, respectively, were underpowered (i.e., the real power was < 60%, as compared with the 80% nominal power); 41%, 16% and 6%, respectively, were overpowered (i.e., with real power > 90%). Even with proper calculation of sample size, a substantial number of trials are underpowered or overpowered because of imprecise knowledge of nuisance parameters. Such findings raise questions about how sample size for RCTs should be determined.

SUBMITTER: Tavernier E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4501786 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Sample Size Calculation: Inaccurate A Priori Assumptions for Nuisance Parameters Can Greatly Affect the Power of a Randomized Controlled Trial.

Tavernier Elsa E Giraudeau Bruno B

PloS one 20150714 7

We aimed to examine the extent to which inaccurate assumptions for nuisance parameters used to calculate sample size can affect the power of a randomized controlled trial (RCT). In a simulation study, we separately considered an RCT with continuous, dichotomous or time-to-event outcomes, with associated nuisance parameters of standard deviation, success rate in the control group and survival rate in the control group at some time point, respectively. For each type of outcome, we calculated a req ...[more]

PMID: 26173007

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Project description:BackgroundComparative genomics aims to detect signals of evolutionary conservation as an indicator of functional constraint. Surprisingly, results of the ENCODE project revealed that about half of the experimentally verified functional elements found in non-coding DNA were classified as unconstrained by computational predictions. Following this observation, it has been hypothesized that this may be partly explained by biased estimates on neutral evolutionary rates used by existing sequence conservation metrics. All methods we are aware of rely on a comparison with the neutral rate and conservation is estimated by measuring the deviation of a particular genomic region from this rate. Consequently, it is a reasonable assumption that inaccurate neutral rate estimates may lead to biased conservation and constraint estimates.ResultsWe propose a conservation signal that is produced by local Maximum Likelihood estimation of evolutionary parameters using an optimized sliding window and present a Kullback-Leibler projection that allows multiple different estimated parameters to be transformed into a conservation measure. This conservation measure does not rely on assumptions about neutral evolutionary substitution rates and little a priori assumptions on the properties of the conserved regions are imposed. We show the accuracy of our approach (KuLCons) on synthetic data and compare it to the scores generated by state-of-the-art methods (phastCons, GERP, SCONE) in an ENCODE region. We find that KuLCons is most often in agreement with the conservation/constraint signatures detected by GERP and SCONE while qualitatively very different patterns from phastCons are observed. Opposed to standard methods KuLCons can be extended to more complex evolutionary models, e.g. taking insertion and deletion events into account and corresponding results show that scores obtained under this model can diverge significantly from scores using the simpler model.ConclusionOur results suggest that discriminating among the different degrees of conservation is possible without making assumptions about neutral rates. We find, however, that it cannot be expected to discover considerably different constraint regions than GERP and SCONE. Consequently, we conclude that the reported discrepancies between experimentally verified functional and computationally identified constraint elements are likely not to be explained by biased neutral rate estimates.

Dataset Information

Sample Size Calculation: Inaccurate A Priori Assumptions for Nuisance Parameters Can Greatly Affect the Power of a Randomized Controlled Trial.

Publications

Sample Size Calculation: Inaccurate A Priori Assumptions for Nuisance Parameters Can Greatly Affect the Power of a Randomized Controlled Trial.

Similar Datasets

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