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Combined Influences of Model Choice, Data Quality, and Data Quantity When Estimating Population Trends.

ABSTRACT: Estimating and projecting population trends using population viability analysis (PVA) are central to identifying species at risk of extinction and for informing conservation management strategies. Models for PVA generally fall within two categories, scalar (count-based) or matrix (demographic). Model structure, process error, measurement error, and time series length all have known impacts in population risk assessments, but their combined impact has not been thoroughly investigated. We tested the ability of scalar and matrix PVA models to predict percent decline over a ten-year interval, selected to coincide with the IUCN Red List criterion A.3, using data simulated for a hypothetical, short-lived organism with a simple life-history and for a threatened snail, Tasmaphena lamproides. PVA performance was assessed across different time series lengths, population growth rates, and levels of process and measurement error. We found that the magnitude of effects of measurement error, process error, and time series length, and interactions between these, depended on context. We found that high process and measurement error reduced the reliability of both models in predicted percent decline. Both sources of error contributed strongly to biased predictions, with process error tending to contribute to the spread of predictions more than measurement error. Increasing time series length improved precision and reduced bias of predicted population trends, but gains substantially diminished for time series lengths greater than 10-15 years. The simple parameterization scheme we employed contributed strongly to bias in matrix model predictions when both process and measurement error were high, causing scalar models to exhibit similar or greater precision and lower bias than matrix models. Our study provides evidence that, for short-lived species with structured but simple life histories, short time series and simple models can be sufficient for reasonably reliable conservation decision-making, and may be preferable for population projections when unbiased estimates of vital rates cannot be obtained.

SUBMITTER: Rueda-Cediel P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4503393 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundSingle-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) has quickly become one of the most dominant techniques in modern transcriptome assessment. In particular, 10X Genomics' Chromium system, with its high throughput approach, turn key and thorough user guide made this cutting-edge technique accessible to many laboratories using diverse animal models. However, standard pre-processing, including the alignment and cell filtering pipelines might not be ideal for every organism or tissue. Here we applied an alternative strategy, based on the pseudoaligner kallisto, on twenty-two publicly available single cell sequencing datasets from a wide range of tissues of eight organisms and compared the results with the standard 10X Genomics' Cell Ranger pipeline.ResultsIn most of the tested samples, kallisto produced higher sequencing read alignment rates and total gene detection rates in comparison to Cell Ranger. Although datasets processed with Cell Ranger had higher cell counts, outside of human and mouse datasets, these additional cells were routinely of low quality, containing low gene detection rates. Thorough downstream analysis of one kallisto processed dataset, obtained from the zebrafish pineal gland, revealed clearer clustering, allowing the identification of an additional photoreceptor cell type that previously went undetected. The finding of the new cluster suggests that the photoreceptive pineal gland is essentially a bi-chromatic tissue containing both green and red cone-like photoreceptors and implies that the alignment and pre-processing pipeline can affect the discovery of biologically-relevant cell types.ConclusionWhile Cell Ranger favors higher cell numbers, using kallisto results in datasets with higher median gene detection per cell. We could demonstrate that cell type identification was not hampered by the lower cell count, but in fact improved as a result of the high gene detection rate and the more stringent filtering. Depending on the acquired dataset, it can be beneficial to favor high quality cells and accept a lower cell count, leading to an improved classification of cell types.

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Combined Influences of Model Choice, Data Quality, and Data Quantity When Estimating Population Trends.

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