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ABSTRACT: Background
Predicting high risk groups for gastric cancer and motivating these groups to receive regular checkups is required for the early detection of gastric cancer. The aim of this study is was to develop a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence based on a large population-based cohort in Korea.Method
Based on the National Health Insurance Corporation data, we analyzed 10 major risk factors for gastric cancer. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop gender specific prediction models for gastric cancer development, and the performance of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration was also validated using an independent cohort. Discrimination ability was evaluated using Harrell's C-statistics, and the calibration was evaluated using a calibration plot and slope.Results
During a median of 11.4 years of follow-up, 19,465 (1.4%) and 5,579 (0.7%) newly developed gastric cancer cases were observed among 1,372,424 men and 804,077 women, respectively. The prediction models included age, BMI, family history, meal regularity, salt preference, alcohol consumption, smoking and physical activity for men, and age, BMI, family history, salt preference, alcohol consumption, and smoking for women. This prediction model showed good accuracy and predictability in both the developing and validation cohorts (C-statistics: 0.764 for men, 0.706 for women).Conclusions
In this study, a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence was developed that displayed a good performance.
SUBMITTER: Eom BW
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4506054 | biostudies-literature | 2015
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Eom Bang Wool BW Joo Jungnam J Kim Sohee S Shin Aesun A Yang Hye-Ryung HR Park Junghyun J Choi Il Ju IJ Kim Young-Woo YW Kim Jeongseon J Nam Byung-Ho BH
PloS one 20150717 7
<h4>Background</h4>Predicting high risk groups for gastric cancer and motivating these groups to receive regular checkups is required for the early detection of gastric cancer. The aim of this study is was to develop a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence based on a large population-based cohort in Korea.<h4>Method</h4>Based on the National Health Insurance Corporation data, we analyzed 10 major risk factors for gastric cancer. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop gend ...[more]