Dataset Information

Targeting Transmission Pathways for Emerging Zoonotic Disease Surveillance and Control.

ABSTRACT: We used literature searches and a database of all reported emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) to analyze the most important transmission pathways (e.g., vector-borne, aerosol droplet transmitted) for emerging zoonoses. Our results suggest that at the broad scale, the likelihood of transmission occurring through any one pathway is approximately equal. However, the major transmission pathways for zoonoses differ widely according to the specific underlying drivers of EID events (e.g., land-use change, agricultural intensification). These results can be used to develop better targeting of surveillance for, and more effective control of newly emerged zoonoses in regions under different underlying pressures that drive disease emergence.

SUBMITTER: Loh EH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4507309 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Targeting Transmission Pathways for Emerging Zoonotic Disease Surveillance and Control.

Loh Elizabeth H EH Zambrana-Torrelio Carlos C Olival Kevin J KJ Bogich Tiffany L TL Johnson Christine K CK Mazet Jonna A K JA Karesh William W Daszak Peter P

Vector borne and zoonotic diseases (Larchmont, N.Y.) 20150701 7

We used literature searches and a database of all reported emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) to analyze the most important transmission pathways (e.g., vector-borne, aerosol droplet transmitted) for emerging zoonoses. Our results suggest that at the broad scale, the likelihood of transmission occurring through any one pathway is approximately equal. However, the major transmission pathways for zoonoses differ widely according to the specific underlying drivers of EID events (e.g., land-use cha ...[more]

PMID: 26186515

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Project description:Epidemiological models of infectious diseases are essential tools in support of risk assessment, surveillance design, and contingency planning in public and animal health. Direct pathogen transmission from host to host is an essential process of each host-pathogen system and respective epidemiological modeling concepts. It is widely accepted that numerous diseases involve indirect transmission (IT) through pathogens shed by infectious hosts to their environment. However, epidemiological models largely do not represent pathogen persistence outside the host explicitly. We hypothesize that this simplification might bias management-related model predictions for disease agents that can persist outside their host for a certain time span. We adapted an individual-based, spatially explicit epidemiological model that can mimic both transmission processes. One version explicitly simulated indirect pathogen transmission through a contaminated environment. The second version simulated direct host-to-host transmission only. We aligned the model variants by the transmission potential per infectious host (i.e., basic reproductive number R0) and the spatial transmission kernel of the infection to allow unbiased comparison of predictions. The quantitative model results are provided for the example of surveillance plans for early detection of foot-and-mouth disease in wild boar, a social host. We applied systematic sampling strategies on the serological status of randomly selected host individuals in both models. We compared between the model variants the time to detection and the area affected prior to detection, measures that strongly influence mitigation costs. Moreover, the ideal sampling strategy to detect the infection in a given time frame was compared between both models. We found the simplified, direct transmission model to underestimate necessary sample size by up to one order of magnitude but to overestimate the area put under control measures. Thus, the model predictions underestimated surveillance efforts but overestimated mitigation costs. We discuss parameterization of IT models and related knowledge gaps. We conclude that the explicit incorporation of IT mechanisms in epidemiological modeling may reward by adapting surveillance and mitigation efforts.

Dataset Information

Targeting Transmission Pathways for Emerging Zoonotic Disease Surveillance and Control.

Publications

Targeting Transmission Pathways for Emerging Zoonotic Disease Surveillance and Control.

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